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Matt's running back (RB) fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 4 of 2026. His RB lineups advice for Week 4 fantasy football start/sit decisions.
Week 4 is here, and the running back position has no shortage of tough decisions. We’ve got some explosive matchup plays, a few uncomfortable deep-league swings, and several backs whose usage has me either ready to buy in—or slam the brakes.
Bucky Irving gets a dream matchup with Green Bay, Aaron Jones could see a monster workload against Miami, and Jacory Croskey-Merritt is the deep sleeper I’m willing to chase against Indianapolis. On the other side, Javonte Williams faces a Houston defense that's been nearly impossible to run against, Travis Etienne Jr. brings major workload and injury concerns, and I’m making the bold call to sit Chase Brown against Jacksonville.
Let’s break down the matchups, usage, and touchdown opportunities to find the running backs worth starting—and the ones I’m fading in Week 4.
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Week 4 - Potential Fantasy Football Booms
Bucky Irving - RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers
Irving has an outside—but very legitimate—path to finishing as the RB1 overall in Week 4, and it all starts with the matchup. Green Bay has been an absolute gift to opposing running backs, allowing a league-high 30.7 fantasy points per game through the first three weeks of the 2026 season.
The Packers are also surrendering 0.95 fantasy points per opportunity, the seventh-highest mark in the league. Irving enters the matchup as the RB15 overall, averaging 13.7 fantasy points per game, but this is the type of spot where his ceiling is considerably higher.
Bucky Irving breaks loose 😤
CLEvsTB on CBS/Paramount+
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/54tbo77wXW— NFL (@NFL) September 20, 2026
The concern is his health and workload. Irving currently owns a 70.4% opportunity share, a 34.8% route share, 12.5% of the running back third-down work, and has yet to record a carry inside the 10-yard line. He also played 0% of the Buccaneers’ two-minute RB snaps.
More importantly, he came off the field for the final 13 plays and was seen with what appeared to be a heating pad on his back. If Irving is active and healthy, I still view him as a mid-to-low-end RB2 with upside, but we need more injury information before confidently projecting a full workload.
That brings us to the contingency plan: Kenny Gainwell. If Irving misses this game, Gainwell immediately becomes a running back I want to fire up. He has a 29.6% opportunity share, 30.4% route share, 100% of the two-minute RB snaps, and 87.5% of the RB third-down work. Once Irving left, Gainwell handled 100% of the opportunities, 72.7% of the routes, and every third-down snap.
The game was also in catch-up mode, which plays directly into Gainwell’s strengths as a pass catcher, so we shouldn’t automatically assume that workload carries over perfectly. Still, if Irving is ruled out, Gainwell moves into the mid-to-low-end RB2 range with plenty of upside in this matchup.
The Packers are the matchup to attack. Whether it’s Irving or Gainwell, Tampa Bay has a running back in position to take advantage of one of the league’s most generous defenses.
Aaron Jones Sr. - RB, Minnesota Vikings vs Miami Dolphins
Another smash play I’m looking at this week is Aaron Jones as the Vikings take on the Miami Dolphins. While the fantasy world waits for an update on Justin Jefferson’s ankle, Jones managers can feel pretty comfortable starting the veteran running back.
If Jefferson misses time, Jones has an obvious path to more work in both the rushing and receiving game. If Jefferson plays, he still might not be at 100% and could be used more as a decoy. Either way, you can see where I’m going: more opportunity for Jones.
Jones entered Week 3 dealing with an injury of his own, yet Minnesota still trusted him with a massive workload. He played 82% of the snaps and handled 74% of the Vikings’ total rushing attempts.
The backfield competition wasn’t exactly stealing work, either, with Demond Claiborne playing just three snaps and DeeJay Dallas seeing seven. Jones has also averaged 13.2 expected PPR points per game over his last two contests, giving us a pretty solid indication that the workload is there.
Now he gets Miami. The Dolphins have been one of the best matchups for opposing running backs, allowing 29.3 fantasy points per game and 1.00 fantasy points per opportunity, with both marks ranking second-highest in the NFL: the workload, the matchup, and the uncertainty surrounding Jefferson all point in the same direction.
Aaron Jones gives the Vikings the lead!
GBvsMIN on CBS/Paramount+
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/BiCfrUeIuC— NFL (@NFL) September 13, 2026
Jones is locked into my Week 4 lineups. Whether Jefferson is active or not, I expect Jones to be heavily involved—and against this Miami defense, that’s exactly the kind of volume we want to chase.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt - RB, Washington Commanders vs Indianapolis Colts (London)
I know Croskey-Merritt is sitting at RB30 and averaging just 7.9 fantasy points per game, but I wasn’t going to sit here and tell you to start Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson in two of the friendliest matchups on the slate. We’re going deeper than that. Much deeper. Croskey-Merritt is the kind of uncomfortable start that could pay off if the underlying opportunity finally turns into production.
No, last week was not pretty. Croskey-Merritt carried the ball 19 times for just 36 yards in Week 3, although an illegal-formation penalty wiped out a 48-yard touchdown. His usage was at least encouraging: he played 59% of the snaps, handled 19 carries, ran 12 routes, and saw one target, turning it into 43 receiving yards.
Rachaad White played 42% of the snaps, had eight carries, ran 15 routes, and saw one target that went for 41 yards and a touchdown. None of this screams fantasy smash, but Croskey-Merritt is getting enough work to keep the door open.
There’s also a pretty telling stat behind the scenes. Among running backs with at least 20 carries, Croskey-Merritt has the second-highest rate of runs hit at or behind the line of scrimmage (60%), trailing only David Montgomery at 68%. Woody Marks is at 59% and Ashton Jeanty at 56%. So some of the inefficiency isn’t entirely on Croskey-Merritt.
The good news? There have been flashes, and where there’s a spark, there can be a fire. London could be burning this week.
Indianapolis is allowing 28.1 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs and 0.95 fantasy points per opportunity, both the fourth-most in the NFL. The Colts are also surrendering 4.75 yards per carry, the fifth-highest mark, while allowing four rushing touchdowns, tied for the second-most behind Green Bay’s six.
This is admittedly a deep-league swing, but the matchup is too good to ignore. Croskey-Merritt is a volume-based dart throw with legitimate touchdown upside in Week 4. If you’re desperate at running back, I’m willing to take the shot.
Week 4 - Potential Fantasy Football Busts
Javonte Williams - RB, Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans
Williams finally got back on track last week, finding the end zone in Rio and finishing with 16.8 fantasy points. That gives him back-to-back weeks with at least 15 fantasy points, and there’s a pretty clear reason I’m willing to keep chasing him: touchdown opportunity.
Williams has been one of the most trusted running backs near the goal line this season, handling 77.8% of Denver’s carries inside the 10-yard line, the eighth-highest percentage in the NFL. Only Gibbs, Kenneth Walker, Jeanty, Robinson, Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor and Kyren Williams have higher marks.
It’s not just the rushing work. Javonte has seen five and four targets over his first two games, respectively, while posting a target rate on 26% of his routes in one game and 25% in the other. For perspective, he reached a 25% targets-per-route-run rate in just two games all of last season—and he’s already hit that mark twice in 2026.
That usage gives Williams a legitimate fantasy floor, but one massive problem remains: Houston is not the friendliest host. The Texans are allowing just 0.47 fantasy points per opportunity, the fewest in the NFL, while giving up only 11.8 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, the second-fewest. Through three games, Houston has yet to surrender a rushing touchdown and has allowed just 231 rushing yards.
So while I love the role and the goal-line usage, Williams will need to make his touches count in this matchup. The touchdown equity keeps him in the conversation, but Houston makes him more of a touchdown-dependent RB2 for me in Week 4.
Omarion Hampton - RB, Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks
Omarion Hampton is a player I’m sitting this week against the Seahawks. Seattle has allowed just 13.9 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, the sixth-fewest mark in the league. That matchup looks even tougher after Seattle held Croskey-Merritt to just 36 rushing yards on 19 carries last week (1.9 YPC).
More concerning than the matchup, though, is Hampton’s declining usage. In Week 3, Hampton played just 42% of the Chargers’ snaps, carrying the ball 15 times for 56 yards while running only six routes and seeing one target, which he failed to catch. Keaton Mitchell ran 14 routes, Kimani Vidal ran 13, and fullback Alec Ingold ran nine.
Hampton’s rushing share has also become less secure, falling from 71.9% in Week 2 to 53.6% in Week 3. His route participation dropped from 25.8% to just 15.8%. Vidal also saw season highs in snaps and opportunities, turning the backfield into a legitimate three-man rotation.
Even more concerning, Mitchell scored on a short reception after Hampton failed to convert two goal-line carries. With a difficult matchup, declining usage, and virtually no receiving role, Hampton is a hard fade for me this week.
Chase Brown - RB, Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville Jaguars
This is my bold take of the week, especially considering the draft capital I spent on Chase Brown back in August: sit Brown this week. Yes, I know the production has been solid. Brown is currently 20th in PPR points per game through three weeks, while ranking third among running backs in rush share and seventh in route share. On paper, the opportunity looks great. The math just isn’t mathing—and I’m blaming Samaje Perine.
Chase Brown doing Chase Brown things 🏃💨 pic.twitter.com/ojAiQPs9TY
— NFL Canada (@NFLCanada) September 27, 2026
Brown owns a 75% opportunity share, 62.5% route share, 0 carries inside the 10, and 88.9% of Cincinnati’s two-minute RB snaps. Meanwhile, Perine has a 25% opportunity share, 35% route share, one carry inside the 10, and 69.2% of the RB third-down work. That goal-line and third-down role is enough to cap Brown’s ceiling.
I still view Brown as a mid-to-late RB1, and the touchdowns will come. I also love the receiving role, which gives him a respectable floor. But Jacksonville is a brutal matchup, allowing just 91.7 rushing yards per game (eighth-fewest) and 16.8 fantasy points per game (sixth-fewest).
I’m fading Brown in Week 4.
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