February 9, 2026

Miami Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara had a frustrating 2025 season, posting a 5.36 ERA across 31 starts. Miami's ace faced levels of adversity he hadn't seen throughout his entire major league career, and it ultimately led to him accruing a dozen losses for the second consecutive season. Alcantara is certainly looking to shake off last year's rough campaign, and there's reason for him (as well as fantasy managers) to be optimistic. Most notably, the underlying metrics show that the right-hander was unlucky. His 5.36 ERA exceeded his 4.63 xERA, and similarly, his 4.28 FIP was a tad higher than his 4.19 xFIP. Plus, while his strikeout rate dipped to 7.32 K/9, he had never been a major swing-and-miss guy anyway. He kept his walk rate in check at 2.94 BB/9, too. Perhaps Alcantara's biggest issue was that he started to allow more loud contact than usual, as evidenced by a 46.5% ground ball rate (lower than his career average) and a career-worst 1.13 HR/9 home run rate. Still, he kept his fastball velocity up around 98 mph, and for the first time since 2020, all five of his pitches graded out as above league-average (higher than 100) by FanGraphs' Stuff+ model. Time will tell how Alcantara fares in 2026, but the bottom line is that the underlying metrics indicate that fantasy managers shouldn't yet panic too much about his results from last year. He ranks #63 among pitchers in RotoBaller's latest fantasy baseball draft rankings and could end up being a value pick at cost.--Andersen Pickard
Source: RotoBaller