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It's Saturday, RotoBallers! I’m excited to be delivering free MLB betting content all season long. I bring a background in betting on MLB in various capacities, most notably competing in the DraftKings DFS live final last year. I'm looking to build off that momentum and capitalize on this baseball season again, and I'm including you in my process.
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Here I’ll update you on my favorite MLB bets throughout the season, and we'll continue to track how my picks are doing. We've already hit the ground running, going 6-1-1 on my betting picks so far! Now let’s dig into my recommendations for May 6, 2023!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Red Sox @ Phillies
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: PHI -140
BOS: Corey Kluber | PHI: Bailey Falter
We will start with a matchup that I expect to be a high-scoring affair. The Red Sox take on the Phillies for game two of their weekend series. The pitching is weak here to say the least, and there's more than enough offensive firepower to get us over that 9.5-run total hump.
Corey Kluber takes the hill for Boston, sporting an ugly 6.44 ERA and 6.50 FIP. His eight home runs surrendered this season are tied for fourth-most in the majors, and he's yet to make it through an outing without allowing at least one long ball. Kluber's advanced stats suggest some mild positive regression may be due, but the numbers remain mediocre across the board – 5.42 xFIP, .510 xSLG, 45.6% hard-hit rate, .359 xwOBA, and 11.1% barrel rate. At 37 years old, he's as good as washed.
Kluber will take on a Phillies lineup scoring just 4.2 runs per game this season. That said, Philadelphia only just got Bryce Harper back, possibly their best hitter among names like Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, and Trea Turner. Further, despite the middling output, the Phillies rank sixth in the league with a .778 OPS against right-handed pitchers this season. That includes a .274 team batting average and 110 wRC+.
For the Phillies, Bailey Falter gets the nod. He carries a similarly problematic 4.98 xERA and 4.79 xFIP, alongside a .488 xSLG, .342 xwOBA, and 10.4% barrel rate. Falter has surrendered at least three runs in each of his previous four appearances, and Boston will be a particularly tough test. They score a blistering 5.9 runs per game, including a .769 OPS and 111 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers. Further, Philadelphia's 5.59 bullpen ERA is the fourth-worst in the majors and should provide additional scoring opportunities.
Between subpar pitching, two capable batting lineups, and a hitter-friendly ballpark, I like the look of this game from an offensive point of view. Either team could explode for double-digit runs all on their own, making me confident they'll combine to surpass the 9.5-run game total.
Pick: Over 9.5 total runs (-110) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Astros @ Mariners
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: SEA -120
HOU: J.P. France | SEA: Marco Gonzales
Moving on to the late game of the night, Houston takes on Seattle. There's plenty of uncertainty surrounding the starting pitching matchup, and that's where we'll see an opportunity emerge. What we do know is that Marco Gonzales is a below-average talent who has been negatively trending for three consecutive years now. On the flip side, J.P. France makes his MLB debut, so we'll dig into what to expect from him.
Gonzales has posted an xERA below 4.00 just once in his seven-year career. That performance came during the 2020 Covid-shortened season and spanned only 11 starts. Outside of that, Gonzales has a long track record as a hittable pitcher. He sports a career .434 xSLG, which sits at .417 so far this season, alongside a 4.56 xERA and 4.42 xFIP. Gonzales has been hit hard by batters on both sides of the plate in his career and figures to have trouble against an Astros lineup featuring Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, and Jeremy Pena.
J.P. France is a relatively unheralded prospect who has impressed at Triple-A this season. He's surrendered just one earned run over his last three appearances and 14 2/3 innings pitched, and only nine total hits over 19 1/3 innings in 2023. The ability to limit damage is there, and Seattle presents a favorable matchup. The Mariners average 4.3 runs per game, including a weak .692 OPS against right-handed pitching. In theory, there's pop in their lineup, but it hasn't been realized yet this season. France is unlikely to go deeper than five innings, but Houston will back him up with an elite 2.93 bullpen ERA.
There's volatility to this bet, but given the generous payout, I like taking the Astros -1.5 run line. I expect they tag Marco Gonzales early and often, creating breathing room for France and the bullpen to keep a struggling Mariners offense in check.
Pick: Astros -1.5 Run Line (+165) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
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