RADIO
We are at the halfway point of the last great college football season. The first half was a wild one and it only promises to get better! A couple of teams have already been eliminated from playoff contention and that's the way it should be! I have no interest in a two-loss LSU in a watered-down playoff, which means I will have little to no interest in next season. That makes me profoundly sad.
I will pick every college football bowl game. Not a top-five. Not a top-10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points from year to year. Here are the results so far. I had a bad week last week, but my head is still above water on the season. I am adding prior seasons to tabs on the sheet. Everything before 2014 is lost to the ghost of The Sports Blog Network. If anyone knows how to find those, I'll go farther back.
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CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
I will be going to the betting window with all of you as well. Most of these I won't actually wager on at the casinos, but I have been known to stagger around 50 games in a week at various online places just because I love the action. Whatever your betting limits or needs, I can at least give you which way I'm leaning.
CFB Betting Picks for 2023 Week 7 (October 14, 2023)
(1) Georgia (-31.5) at Vanderbilt
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Georgia heard us talking and took it out on Kentucky. There is no doubt in my mind that they can cover this, but why would they? Georgia has no more statements to make. However, this is the week before a bye, so maybe they turn it on? I honestly don't know, so I'm leaving it alone. I'll take the Bulldogs though.
Indiana at (2) Michigan (-33.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Maybe Michigan deserves an easy schedule. Have you peeped their 2024 docket yet? Good grief!
Michigan is more than capable of covering this, but I'll take Indiana. Michigan has no interest in showing anything and the one thing the Hoosiers have done right this year is get a few stops on defense.
(3) Ohio State (-19.5) at Purdue
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Peacock is killing my Saturdays. They'll put the Michigan-Indiana snooze-fest on network TV, but stream what might be a good game. Yes, makes sense. Ohio State has had some bad memories in West Lafayette. I'll take Purdue, but I'm probably leaving this alone.
Syracuse at (4) Florida State (-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Garrett Schrader is going to give the Seminoles some problems, but I don't feel like this is the game they drop. Syracuse doesn't have the receivers to burn FSU deep. I'll take the Noles.
Arkansas at (11) Alabama (-19.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This line is up a couple of points and likely isn't done yet. It feels a little high to me now. I'll take Arkansas, but by no means do I trust it.
Michigan State at Rutgers (-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is offline at many places. They're about as excited about this game as I am. First one to 10 wins! Give me Rutgers.
Iowa State at Cincinnati (-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I still don't buy this. Both teams lost to good MAC schools. Both teams lost to Oklahoma. I'll take the Cyclones. If they don't win outright, I think they're within three or four points.
Temple at North Texas (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
There is going to be a lot of offense in this one. I think I like the over 68 better than the spread. E.J. Warner is the better quarterback but has the worse defense. I'll take UNT at home.
Georgia Southern at James Madison (-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The line is rising, so grab it while you can. It will likely be a touchdown by kickoff. For anything under that, I'm good with the Dukes at home.
Kent State at Eastern Michigan (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Oooh...I don't like that hook. The line is down three points already, so I'm going to see if I can grab it for seven or less tomorrow morning. This feels like a smash spot for the Eagles, which is where they usually screw me. I'm still taking them, but lowering the bet. I really don't like that half.
Navy (-3.5) at Charlotte
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The 49ers played Maryland tough for a half and hung with Florida. I'm not sure how they'll do against an option offense, but I tend to think Charlotte is the better team right now. Give me the Niners at home.
Toledo (-16.5) at Ball State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That Toledo offense is fun to watch. The defense is an exercise in torture at times. I'll take Toledo, but I no longer have great confidence in that defense after UMass went up and down the field on them for a half.
California at (16) Utah (-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This explains the extended absence of Cameron Rising. We still have no idea when he will play. His knee is healthy enough to walk and jog on, but that might be it. We don't know and Utah is in no hurry to tell us. It makes me want to avoid Utah bets. This line is down three points already. I like it a lot more if it falls under 10. For now, I'll take the Utes, but I'm not messing with this unless we have concrete news on Rising.
Massachusetts at (6) Penn State (-42.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Yeah, right. You're not pulling me in on this mess. Give me UMass, but you couldn't pay me to bet this.
(8) Oregon at (7) Washington (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Honestly, I'm comfortable with the Huskies for anything under five. I trust Michael Penix more than Bo Nix and those Washington receivers aren't talked about nearly enough. Washington by a touchdown...and take the over 67.
Texas A&M at (19) Tennessee (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Money is flowing on the Aggies, so it's down about a point. I was hoping to get the extra little bit of insurance. I don't think I'll need it, but my big bets didn't go so well last week. I trust A&M a lot more, especially on the defensive side. I still like the Aggies outright.
(23) Kansas (-2.5) at Oklahoma State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Jalon Daniels might have played his last game as a Jayhawk and the Cowboys beat likely the best team in Kansas last weekend. I like KU, but I don't know that they're winning in Stillwater now that they have a true starting quarterback and running back. Give me the Pokes.
Troy (-5.5) at Army
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Kimani Vidal is going to be on national TV, you guys. Go watch him and you'll see why I'm betting on Troy.
Illinois at Maryland (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Way too low! This Illinois defense has more holes than a Swiss cheese donut.
Florida at South Carolina (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Until the Gamecocks start protecting Spencer Rattler, they are going to continue to disappoint fans and bettors alike. That said, the Gators just got bullied on both lines by Kentucky. I'll take the Gamecocks, but I'm probably leaving this alone.
Wake Forest at Virginia Tech (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Virginia Tech has better skill players on offense and a better defense. This feels like easy money, especially at home.
BYU at TCU (-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Why is TCU favored? Chandler Morris struggled before he got hurt and may not even play. BYU is looking like the best of the Big 12(14) newcomers. Emani Bailey is a problem for the Cougars, but that offense is starting to come around. I'll take BYU outright.
Florida Atlantic at South Florida (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm a big Byrum Brown fan, but that USF defense is a problem. I'll take the Bulls but lower the bet.
Akron at Central Michigan (-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I know Akron is bad, but they can't possibly be this bad, can they? Myles Bailey isn't Antario Brown. I'll take Akron, but I'm staying far away from this one.
Bowling Green at Buffalo (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is all over the place. Buffalo is still favored by six at a couple of books and I saw one at 2.5. I don't really know what to do with it either. The Bulls have been better of late, but the Falcons have better wins. I'll take Buffalo, I guess.
Miami (OH) (-8.5) at Western Michigan
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Redhawks are likely the class of the MAC. Under 10 feels safe. Give me Miami.
Iowa at Wisconsin (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is too many. Iowa's defense is still really good and Wisconsin's isn't as good as it usually is. I don't think Iowa wins, but this feels like a 14-10 or 17-13 game. Neither is a cover for the Badgers.
Ohio (-5.5) at Northern Illinois
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Don't mind me, I'm just here for the Antario Brown vs. Sieh Bangura matchup. I couldn't care less about the spread. Give me Ohio if I must pick...
UNLV (-7.5) at Nevada
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
You have to love the battle for the Fremont Cannon. UNLV is likely going bowling. This is Nevada's bowl game and it's in Reno. I really don't like that hook. I'll say UNLV wins but doesn't cover because of that half.
San Jose State (-7.5) at New Mexico
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Lobos have me howling for mercy. Give me SJSU.
(14) Louisville (-7.5) at Pittsburgh
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Sure, Louisville looks ripe for a letdown. They could have a complete Three Mile Island meltdown and still not blow this. Cardinals by double figures...even if they play a terrible game! If they play well, look out.
Arizona at (19) Washington State (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is another hook that's pushing me to the other side. Arizona has the two most fun football teams in the country. I love watching both teams. The Territory Cup is going to be lit this year, but I think Arizona will snipe someone before then. Wazzu doesn't usually lose in Pullman, but Arizona has played both USC and Washington to within a touchdown. I think their streak continues. Give me Arizona and the hook!
Auburn at (22) LSU (-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
LSU has one of the most talented offenses on the planet. Fortunately for the Bayou Tigers, Auburn doesn't have the offense to expose their defense. Give me LSU as a shamelessly clamor for an LSU-USC bowl game.
Kansas State at Texas Tech (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Wildcats are falling apart before our eyes. They still have two good running backs in DJ Giddens and Treshaun Ward, but both combined aren't Deuce Vaughn. Will Howard has regressed. The defense got chewed up by Oklahoma State. And it's Lubbock at night. I think I have to take the Red Raiders.
Marshall at Georgia State (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm a huge fan of Darren Grainger. I love Rasheen Ali as well, but as I said last week, I'm not sure Marshall can throw to win. The Panthers can. Give me GSU.
Louisiana-Monroe at Texas State (-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wow, that's a ton of points. Ismail Mahdi might be able to cover this by himself, but I don't think I would bet on it. Give me the Bobcats.
Wyoming at Air Force (-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Has anyone watched the Cowboys play? This is too many points. I wouldn't be shocked if Wyoming won outright. I can just about guarantee that they won't lose by double figures.
(10) USC at (21) Notre Dame (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm so shocked by this line that I might just bet the Trojans. This feels like a game that Notre Dame wins, but I don't know. They haven't faced an offense like this. They haven't faced this bad of a defense either. It's supposed to be a deluge in South Bend, which should slow USC down. I like the under-60, but I'm not sure about the spread. Give me USC, I guess. The rain will slow down the Trojans' offense, but it helps their defense infinitely more.
(25) Miami (FL) at (12) North Carolina (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Yeah, right. Tarheels by two touchdowns!
Missouri at (24) Kentucky (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The more that I look at this, the more I like Missouri outright. Missouri is what Kentucky wants to be on offense.
(18) UCLA at (15) Oregon State (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Weird things happen in Corvallis. Oregon State can also run the ball, which Washington State couldn't do. The Beavers gave up 40 to Cal last weekend, but I'll trust the Beavers with the might of the chainsaw and the heady play of D.J. Uiagalelei to bring this home with the cover.
North Carolina State at (17) Duke (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Duke's defense can clamp down on MJ Morris. The status of Riley Leonard is still up in the air, but I still think Duke wins regardless.
UAB at UTSA (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
UAB smoked a solid South Florida team and UTSA just allowed half a gazillion passing yards to E.J. Warner. This is too many. Give me the Blazers.
Boise State (-7.5) at Colorado State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Boise should cover this without much of a problem. I'll take the Broncos.
San Diego State (-5.5) at Hawaii
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Warriors aren't quite there yet. Give me the Aztecs.
I tipped the scales with 21 middle bets this week, but I also had 19 two-pointers, so I didn't get that daring. Five max bets tie my season-high. I only took the chicken exit six times on one-point bets. That leaves me with four four-point bets. Good luck out there. I'm living in the middle.
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