Fact or Fiction: Fantasy Football Outlooks for Mac Jones, Tyjae Spears, Justice Hill, Jalen Coker, Brenton Strange

December 18, 2024

Justin's fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 16 of 2024. He looks at surprising performances from Mac Jones, Tyjae Spears, Justice Hill, Jalen Coker, Brenton Strange.

Weird things happen every week in the NFL, but honestly, Week 15 was largely not that weird when talking about who the top performers were. In this article about surprise performances, only two of these players finished top five at their positions.

Are players like Tyjae Spears and Brenton Strange going to be fantasy values heading forward after their strong Week 15 showings, or should fantasy managers fade them?

Every week, I'll examine five NFL players whose numbers from the previous week were better than expected. I'll analyze their games and consider their showings in the larger scheme. Below, you'll find my analysis of the biggest fantasy football surprises of Week 15. Are those surprising results a fact, i.e., a sign of good things to come, or a fiction, i.e., an anomalous result?

Mac Jones - QB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 15 stats: 31-of-46 for 294 yards and two touchdowns, two interceptions, four carries for 29 yards - overall QB9

With Trevor Lawrence done for the year, Mac Jones made his fourth start of 2024 on Sunday against the Jets. He threw for 294 yards in the 32-25 loss, his most yards of the season.

Jones had a relatively strong game and I've largely been impressed by his time with the Jags this year. Sure, Jones isn't anywhere in the ballpark of where the Patriots thought he'd be when they used a first-round pick on him, but he's proved to be a serviceable spot starter this season. That's more than I expected.

Mac Jones spin move and hits the Rizzler celly 😂

📺: #NYJvsJAX on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/yIxpuOFcXT

— NFL (@NFL) December 15, 2024

Despite two finishes as a QB1 in the past three games and favorable matchups going forward, it's tough for me to trust Jones with so much on the line over the next couple of weeks. He's been picked off four times over the past two games and it took him 46 attempts to get his 294 yards last weekend.

Jones has plenty of value in two-quarterback leagues, but I'd wager most of you reading this aren't in two-quarterback leagues. In leagues where you only need one fantasy starter, you're best ignoring Jones and chalking this game up to circumstance.

Verdict: Fiction

Tyjae Spears - RB, Tennessee Titans

Week 15 stats: four carries for five yards and one touchdown, six receptions for 87 yards and one touchdown - overall RB5

The backfield split between Tyjae Spears and Tony Pollard never really materialized, with Pollard controlling this Titans backfield. Spears has double-digit carries just once this season and has yet to hit 50 rushing yards in any game.

He continued to be used sparingly in the run game against the Bengals this past week, carrying the ball four times for five yards. However, a touchdown on one of those carries provided a big boost to his overall numbers.

The bigger boost, though, came from the passing game, as Spears caught six passes for 87 yards and a touchdown. He took advantage of the team playing from behind for much of the game.

Spears is a talented back, but this was the first time he played more than half of Tennessee's snaps all season. Upcoming games against the Colts and Jaguars should be much closer, so don't expect Spears to see enough usage to be more than a high-end RB4 going forward.

Verdict: Fiction

Justice Hill - RB, Baltimore Ravens

Week 15 stats: two carries for seven yards, five catches for 61 yards and a touchdown - overall RB10

Like Tyjae Spears, Justice Hill is another back who isn't getting a ton of work on the ground. That will happen when the guy ahead of you on the depth chart is Derrick Henry.

Hill had just two carries for seven yards against the Giants, but he made a big impact in the passing game, catching five passes for 61 yards and a score.

Justice Hill deserves more recognition

Kick return for 59 yards
5 catches for 61 yards and a TD to get the Jackson 5
Has been a great passing blocker all year

Mr. Underrated pic.twitter.com/jpLiIsB7Wp

— The Ravens Realm (@RealmRavens) December 16, 2024

On one hand, it's probably best to chalk this one up as just one of those things that happens. Hill had his most receptions and yards since Sept. 29 against the Bills and it's unlikely we see a repeat performance against the Steelers next week. If we're exclusively looking at fantasy value over the next two weeks, this is fiction.

But Hill has five or more targets in three of the last four games, so that's something. He also signed a two-year extension with the Ravens earlier this season. If age finally catches up to Henry next season, Hill could be in line for expanded usage.

Verdict: Fiction, but those target numbers are intriguing

Jalen Coker - WR, Carolina Panthers

Week 15 stats: four receptions for 110 yards and one touchdown - overall WR11

Undrafted rookie Jalen Coker has made a strong impact on the Panthers this season, though a quad injury cost Coker three games, which hindered his upward trajectory.

He was back on the field in Week 15 against the Cowboys, providing a bright spot on what was an otherwise long day for Carolina. Coker was targeted six times, catching four passes for 110 yards and a touchdown.

Coker certainly looks like an NFL starter at this point, but the Panthers offense just has too many question marks to trust a receiver from it down the stretch. He's a WR4 going forward, but Coker is set to be a popular sleeper pick in 2025.

Verdict: Fiction, but he's the closest player in this article to Fact ... so far

Brenton Strange - TE, Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 15 stats: 11 catches for 73 yards - overall TE4

With tight end Evan Engram out for the season with a torn shoulder labrum, the Jaguars needed someone to step up to replace his production. Brenton Strange answered the call as he caught 11 passes for 73 yards against the Jets, both season highs for the second-year tight end out of Penn State.

Jaguars TE Brenton Strange made a bunch of tough catches with many big hits while fighting for YAC pic.twitter.com/pwlkUXOCr4

— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) December 17, 2024

Fantasy managers should expect Strange to remain a key piece of this offense going forward, but 12 targets is a lot. 27.2% of Strange's targets this season came in Sunday's game, as did 32.4% of his total receptions.

The Jones to Strange connection has some intrigue, but there's definitely reason to worry that this was a one-off. Jones has an iffy NFL track record and Strange has never had a game like this, so it's totally fine to be cautious with Strange at this point.

Still, he's right there on the borderline of being a top-12 fantasy tight end for the next two weeks. If you're in a situation where you need a streaming play, Strange might be your man.

Verdict: Fact, or at least the closest we're getting to Fact

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