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RotoBaller's Mike Marteny's ESPN College Football Pick'ems for Week 11. Picks with confidence points for Week 11 of the 2026 NCAA college football season. Expert upsets, targets, avoids, and predictions.
I had my best week in a while in Week 10, but that's not saying much. We only have four weeks left. Where has this season gone? "Rajika" and BamaBoy" both scored 50 points in Week 10. "50 Centi" finished third with 48 points. Two other entries scored more than 40. Since it was the usual suspects scoring the points, the top of the list is still similar.
BamaBoy took over first place with 380 points. Ted is just two points behind. Dr.SteveBrule sits in third place with 366 points. Three more entries have more than 360 points, but only four are in the 350s. There is finally some separation at the top, but with 50-point weeks being a rarity, ground can still be made up quickly.
We are down to the last month of the season, and we haven't had a lot of easy weeks this year. That proves true again this week. We have some tough ones to pick.
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College Football Pick'em Overview
This article is about the confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks here every week for every game, so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. Each week, I will recap who's dominating the group before I get into the picks. If you're going to beat everyone, all of the readers will know about it!
Let's get to the countdown! I will count them up from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I do change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on X. Otherwise, you know all of my picks each week.
Week 11 doesn't have any trophy games, but we have some big-time CFP implications in these games. Some of it is because the SEC is overrated in the rankings. Some of it is because Boise State, UTSA, and North Texas have big tests.
(1) Oregon State over Boise State
It's not that I have a ton of faith in the Beavers after they got smacked by Texas State, but have you seen Boise State's pass defense? The Broncos allowed 384 passing yards to a Memphis team that runs a power run scheme. Texas State and Colorado State both threw for over 300 yards and a combined seven touchdowns.
Oregon State's Jesse Legree has 1,209 receiving yards and 14 receiving TDs through 9 games.
Since 2004, only seven others also had that by game 9.
Oregon State at Boise State, Saturday.
via https://t.co/DcYRg4KNJv @ironfbstats https://t.co/FT4XgRk10q
— Iron - College Football Stats App (@ironfbstats) November 11, 2026
Boise quarterback Maddux Madsen is still questionable after leaving the Texas State game two weeks ago. We likely won't get clarity on this situation until Saturday morning.
I know that it feels weird to say this, but Madsen's status doesn't move the needle much for me. He has been outstanding for Boise this year, but Max Cutforth has experience and has looked good in the five quarters he has played this year.
This is just me trying to steal a point since Boise might be without Madsen and Oregon State has fallen off lately. Against Boise's pass defense, I think they make this a game.
(2) LSU over Texas
I was hoping to pull one over on the public here, but over half of the Pick Em pickers are picking LSU as well. So is Vegas, for whatever that's worth (usually a lot).
FPI loves LSU at home in a night game, and so does everyone else. I might flip on this one, but I don't think I will. This feels like the kind of game that Lane Kiffin and company show up for.
(3) UTSA over North Texas
UTSA home vs away record is something that should be studied by scientists.
Since 2020, they are 36-5 at home & 19-19 on the road
They are 12-1 at home and 5-8 on the road since joining the AAC in 2023.
— John Maddox (@jmaddoxsports) October 9, 2026
The above graphic is the only reason I'm taking UTSA. They play lights out in the Alamodome. North Texas has an offense that is nearly as good as last year's unit. Where is Neal Brown going to take this offense next year? Maryland, perhaps?
That's speculation for another day. I expect a high-scoring game here, but I just trust UTSA at home. This is nearly a toss-up in the desert with North Texas a slight favorite, but FPI is heavy on the Mean Green (63%). So are Pick Em players (79%).
(4) Oklahoma State over Texas Tech
We all saw what the West Virginia offense did to Tech last week, right? In Lubbock, no less? What if I told you that the Oklahoma State offense is a slightly more talented team? Would that affect your pick?
The public is 68% on Texas Tech, but the Pokes are 3.5-point favorites in Vegas. FPI also has Oklahoma State as slight favorites. Texas Tech doesn't have the elite defense of last year. No one has stepped up the way that Jacob Rodriguez did last year.
Oklahoma State can get back into the CFP conversation since three losses don't seem to knock you out of contention anymore...
(5) Kentucky over Florida
I know...I know. Everything says that I should have more confidence in this one. Florida has dominated Kentucky for decades, but suddenly, the Cats have a pulse in this series. They have won four of the last five meetings, including the 2022 game in Gainesville.
Florida lost to the Oklahoma team that got smoked by South Carolina, a team that Kentucky beat in Lexington. Everything says Kentucky, but I'm still nervous.
(6) Utah over Arizona
Utah's defense can handle a mostly one-dimensional offense like Arizona's. I expect the Wildcats to score some points since they're at home.
However, Vegas only has Utah as a slight favorite. They must be expecting a letdown after the Holy War. That is entirely possible, and it's the biggest reason why this game isn't at a higher value.
(7) Indiana over USC
I'm not ready to anoint USC yet just because they beat a watered-down version of Ohio State. What I don't understand is how Ohio State's defense got much worse once Julian Sayin went down.
Indiana needed the off week. They haven't played well in about a month now. However, we know how bad USC is whenever they hit the road out of the Pacific Time Zone. This is an afternoon kick in Bloomington. Enough said.
USC is 1-7 in road games against top 25 teams under Lincoln Riley. That one win was against a severely overrated Penn State team this year.
(8) Oklahoma over Mississippi
Trinidad Chambliss was a handful for Oklahoma last year in this game, but Chambliss hasn't been nearly as good as last year. Coming back to college probably cost him some money just as it did Drew Allar and Garrett Nussmeier last year.
Oklahoma's offense looked really good in the first game with Jason Witten calling plays. He ran the type of offense that Brent Venables (and the fans) want to run. Oklahoma ran more and threw fewer complex passes.
That allowed John Mateer to get out of his head and just throw the football. If Oklahoma can do that again, then Ole Miss is cooked.
(9) Wake Forest over SMU
Gio Lopez has been SLINGING it this season ? https://t.co/Fp5wCLYm4P
— PFF College (@PFF_College) November 10, 2026
Gio Lopez didn't play against Merrimack since Wake didn't need him. Some reports have claimed that Lopez could have played if they needed him, but the official stance of Wake Forest is that he's still questionable.
This is a complete toss-up in Vegas because Kevin Jennings has been nearly as good as Lopez for the last month. That didn't stop them from losing to Syracuse.
If Wake is as good as I think they are, this shouldn't be much of a problem. The Wake Forest defense will be tested, but they played a solid game against a really good Miami offense. I'm comfortable trusting them here.
(10) Tennessee over Texas A&M
The A&M defense has played well, but the offense has been a disaster, and Tennessee might be the best defense they've faced this year. Ouch. This might be an ugly game, which definitely favors Tennessee.
