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Mike's Week 10 college football betting picks against the spread for Saturday, November 7, 2026. Free CFB betting predictions, odds analysis, and ATS picks from RotoBaller.
I didn't have high hopes for last week, and that premonition came true. It was my worst week of the season. There is renewed optimism this week since MACtion went well this week, and I hit both games last night. I'm ready to cap off this week with some big wins.
Wake is playing Merrimack this week, so that leaves us with 50 games to pick on Saturday. If you have questions about these games that I don't cover here, you can jump into our Discord channel, and I can try to help you out. You can also reach out to me on X at @mikemarteny.
We're light on trophy games, but not light on drama. Miami is missing Malachi Toney for maybe the biggest Catholics vs. Convicts game since 1988. The Holy War is a matinee. Bama-LSU isn't a night game, and Lane is big mad. Hey, it will be dark by the time the game ends. There could be Tiger magic in the second half.
CFB Betting Picks for Week 10
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds for each game, average them across all Vegas casinos, and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I think you should know who you're listening to. I've been doing this since 2014, and I have most of my record available for viewing here. This can help you determine which teams I usually pick correctly or incorrectly.
I've had trouble finding the 2019 and 2020 articles, so the page is still under construction. All of the picks from 2014-2018 and 2021-2025 are accurate and accounted for. The all-time totals are still under construction, but for now I'll omit 2019 and 2020.
If any of you know how to recover old WordPress documents or how to get back into broken internet links, I would love to hear from you. Ideally, I would like to make my stats as complete as possible.
We'll try to get back on the winning side of things this week. We've got a few really good spots, but the last two weeks have been the craziest since November of 2007. The only difference is that those 2007 games had massive consequences.
(9) BYU at (3) Utah (-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is the biggest Holy War since it was a bowl game in Vegas. It may be the biggest Holy War ever in terms of consequence.
The Holy War: Utah x BYU ? Who you got? https://t.co/JA0y7TlkfC
— College Football Alerts (@CFBAlerts_) November 2, 2026
BYU is still without LJ Martin, and we have seen the offense stumble a little since he has been out. There have been more turnovers. Turnovers have been a huge factor in the last three Holy Wars (7-0 in favor of BYU). This year, that tide turns.
Pick: Utah -5.5
(7) Texas (-2.5) at (18) Missouri
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Missouri hasn't won a big game like this in the SEC, but they have come close a couple of times. This line has fallen below three, and all of the juice is on Texas. Vegas wants us to bet on Missouri.
It makes sense. Missouri hasn't had a marquee win in a long time now. This is a different Missouri team. Ahmad Hardy is back. Hollywood Smothers is out for Texas. If Missouri can push this to the air, it's a winnable game.
Pick: Missouri +2.5
(8) UCLA (-5.5) at Minnesota
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Hey, remember that Minnesota-Purdue game? I do. That's all that comes to mind when I see money landing on Minnesota.
Pick: UCLA -5.5
Iowa State at Baylor (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Baylor defense embarrassed Central Florida last week. Iowa State knocked off Oklahoma State in Ames. Baylor has been better in up-tempo games. This won't be one of those, but man, that seems high.
Pick: Iowa State +9.5
Clemson (-2.5) at Syracuse
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I've made a lot of money betting against Clemson this year. I'm going to make some more.
Pick: Syracuse +2.5
Florida State (-6.5) at Boston College
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
BC got embarrassed by Duke last week, and FSU finally fired Mike Norvell. How is this still under a touchdown?
Pick: Florida State -6.5
North Carolina (-6.5) at Connecticut
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Billy Edwards Jr. played the best game of his career last week against Miami. Demon June has taken over the backfield. This is what we thought Carolina would be in 2026. It just took a couple of months.
Pick: North Carolina -6.5
Tulsa (-1.5) at Tulane
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
On the road? I don't know about that. Tulane has played a few really bad games. They've also played a couple of good ones. There are better spots. I'm leaving this alone.
Pick: Tulane +1.5
Duke (-4.5) at North Carolina State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
These schools are only 30 miles apart, so they are closer than BYU and Utah. It isn't quite as heated, but the teams still don't like each other.
Duke has won three straight in the series and hasn't lost in Raleigh since 2020. Before that, it was 2002. The Blue Devils have won five of the last six. That line doesn't seem so off after all.
Pick: Duke -4.5
Maryland at Purdue (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Yuck. Neither team has looked good lately. I'm not touching this.
Pick: Maryland +6.5
Arkansas at Auburn (-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't like that half, but the only team that has given Arkansas a sliver of hope was Tennessee.
Pick: Auburn -10.5
Oklahoma State (-4.5) at Kansas State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
K-State can't run the ball, and Avery Johnson is still out. Next thing you're going to tell me is that there is oceanfront property in Kansas. This is WAY too low.
7 straight 300-yard games. Drew Mestemaker just tied Mason Rudolph's Oklahoma State record ?
27/42, 323 YDS, 5 TDS, 1 INT vs Iowa State
The most consistent QB in this class.
https://t.co/Uk7Se6WR2e
— CFB Performances (@performancesCFB) November 5, 2026
Pick: Oklahoma State -4.5
Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I don't like that half, but ODU is lost right now.
Pick: Coastal Carolina -7.5
Georgia State at Appalachian State (-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
App State is 364-115-12 at home all time.
That is a 74.13% home winning percentage.
In fact, their home record from 1985-2011 was 146-27.
That's an 84.39% home winning percentage!!!
And if you want to only include regular season games, it's 129-19 (87.16%).
Oh, yeah, and they also won 3 consecutive FCS national championships from 2005-2007 and 6 consecutive Southern Conference championships from 2005-2010.
From 1985-2011, they participated in 40 playoff games (24-16 playoff record).Not just ANYBODY can walk out of Kidd-Brewer with a win.
App State is one of the TOUGHEST places to play at in college football!!!
— AggieCat Sports (@AggiesRecruitEx) October 21, 2026
Since then, App State knocked off JMU in Boone. Does this feel low yet? It should.
Pick: Appalachian State -4.5
Texas A&M at (21) South Carolina (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line crept up over 7. I expected it. There is still very little juice on the South Carolina side.
Pick: South Carolina -7.5
Louisiana-Monroe at Arkansas State (-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I know Monroe is bad, but the only team that Arkansas State beat by more than two touchdowns was West Georgia.
Pick: Louisiana-Monroe +14.5
Delaware (-2.5) at Kennesaw State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Nick Minicucci is going to be offered a lot of money from QB needy programs this offseason
With one year of eligibility left will he stay loyal to the Blue Hens or make the jump to P4? https://t.co/W4OonHNI5l
— SleeperCFB (@SleeperCFB) October 28, 2026
Minicucci hasn't left yet.
Pick: Delaware -2.5
(5) Alabama at (14) LSU (-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Vegas line tells you just how much of a joke that Alabama's ranking is. I think LSU wins, but I don't know if it's by more than a field goal. Even a 24-20 game doesn't get it covered. I'm not going heavy on this.
Pick: LSU -5.5
(23) Oregon at (12) Ohio State (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Remember the good old days when this was supposed to be one of the biggest matchups of the year? Not anymore. Now we have Luke Fahey against Dylan Raiola.
I trust Raiola a lot more than Fahey, and Oregon's defense has been strong all year. This stays within a touchdown.
Pick: Oregon +7.5
Cincinnati at (17) Houston (-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wow, that seems high. Houston's defense did a great job on Utah, and Utah just throttled Cincinnati. However, one team beat Texas Tech and the other didn't.
Pick: Cincinnati +10.5
Penn State at Washington (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I still don't trust Washington, but I get it. This should be easy, but I'm backing off a little bit.
Pick: Washington -2.5
Charlotte at UAB (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is on the way down, but it's still too high. Conner Harrell has turned Charlotte into a competitive team.
Pick: Charlotte +9.5
Temple at Navy (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Navy is getting plus odds with that half tacked on. They want us to bet Temple, but I'm not buying it.
Pick: Navy -7.5
Marshall at Georgia Southern (-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm not a big fan of the half, but Marshall is absolutely lost since they started spinning the quarterback carousel.
Pick: Georgia Southern -10.5
Western Kentucky (-1.5) at Middle Tennessee State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
One of the best (if not the best) rivalry names in CFB is ‘100 Miles of Hate’ between WKU & MTSU. Not only is it a fierce rivalry, it’s also aptly named. Via I-65 South & I-24 East, the two schools are separated by almost 100 miles exactly (100.3). Pretty cool #100MilesOfHate https://t.co/EyO9kiXNrM
— College Football Campus Tour (@cfbcampustour) September 29, 2023
The Hilltoppers have won seven straight in the series and 10 of the last 11. That only loss was in Murfreesboro in 2018. I'm still following the trend. Ajay Allen could get this covered by himself.
Pick: Western Kentucky -1.5
Central Florida at Kansas (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Can we believe in Kansas? Maybe, but not enough to bet on them.
Pick: Kansas -2.5
Rice at North Texas (-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It's really hard to cover an option offense by this many points. If any team can do it, it's North Texas.
Pick: North Texas -16.5
Northern Illinois at San Jose State (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Someone is not paying attention. NIU played UNLV tough in Vegas. The offense is starting to move the ball. San Jose State has only beaten UTEP and Cal-Poly by 10 points or more. NIU isn't that bad.
Pick: Northern Illinois -9.5
Missouri State at Florida International (-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
In Henry Belin IV, we trust.
Pick: Missouri State +4.5
Louisiana Tech (-5.5) at Troy
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Troy beat JMU with Tucker Kilcrease at QB. Of all the fluky things in one of the flukiest seasons, that may be the flukiest fluke. Blake Baker would never!
Pick: Louisiana Tech -5.5
Vanderbilt at Mississippi State (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
At least Vanderbilt has something going for them. The Bulldogs can't move the ball without Kamario Taylor, and I have no idea why Fluff Bothwell would push it.
Pick: Vanderbilt +3.5
Rutgers at Wisconsin (-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I trust the Wisconsin defense, but that feels high.
Pick: Rutgers +17.5
South Alabama at Louisiana (-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Since USA is sticking with Jared Hollins, this feels low.
Pick: Louisiana -8.5
(25) Boise State (-17.5) at Colorado State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Maddux Madsen is listed as questionable, but he was on crutches on the sideline for the end of the Texas State game. It seems unlikely that he'll play. Hauss Hejny is playing. This is going to be fun!
Pick: Colorado State +17.5
(6) Kentucky at (13) Tennessee (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I say this every year to start #Vols #Kentucky week, and I’ll say it again now.
Enough time has passed. Bring back the Beer Barrel.
Trophies like this are what make college football so special. https://t.co/8PcTYkcTj0
— Wes Rucker (@wesruckerTBA) November 4, 2018
Kentucky hasn't won at Neyland Stadium since 2020, when it was at about 1/3 capacity. They haven't won in a full Neyland Stadium since 1984. Kentucky has only won three times since that 1984 game, all of them since 2010.
Everything about this says Tennessee is going to win, but this Kentucky team feels different. Even if Tennessee wins, I think it's closer than a touchdown.
Pick: Kentucky +6.5
Sam Houston at Jacksonville State (-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Is Sam Houston going to get the boost from firing Phil Longo? How much of a boost will they need to not get covered? It's too late for this kind of math...
Pick: Jacksonville State -16.5
(1) Miami at (11) Notre Dame (-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
So...Malachi Toney gets hurt, and the line drops two points? We all know that the Irish got shafted in the ratings, but they haven't beaten a ranked team since the 2024 CFP.
Miami has this guy named Cooper Barkate. He and Darian Mensah were buds at Duke last year and terrorized the ACC. They also knocked Virginia out of the CFP and got Miami (and James Madison) in.
I know that Toney is an elite talent and he will be missed, but Miami has more than enough to replace him.
Pick: Miami +5.5
(2) Georgia (-3.5) at (10) Mississippi
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Kewan Lacy is out, and we all know what that does to the Mississippi offense. Trinidad Chambliss needs a Heisman moment since ESPN wants to badly to give him the trophy.
I get it. I like Chambliss too. He's fun to watch. He has also turned it over more than twice as much as he did last year. Ole Miss beat Georgia in the CFP last year after losing in the regular season. Lacy scored four touchdowns in those two games. That might be too much to overcome.
Pick: Georgia -3.5
(19) Iowa at Northwestern (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm hammering the under 42.5 in this one. I like that better than the spread. Iowa demolished Wisconsin. Is Northwestern that much better than Wisconsin? Probably. I still don't know if they'll win this.
Pick: Iowa +2.5
Colorado at Arizona State (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
All of the juice is on Colorado. Usually that makes me nervous, but Kansas State is nothing without Avery Johnson.
Pick: Arizona State -3.5
Louisville (-14.5) at Georgia Tech
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I was hoping for a more favorable line, but there's no way I'm betting the Wreck.
Pick: Louisville -14.5
Michigan State at Michigan (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This game is for a trophy. It may be a little weird and a lot ugly, but there's still something endearing about it.
Michigan celebrates with the Paul Bunyan Trophy for the third straight season ?
#B1GFootball x @UMichFootball https://t.co/Wp3pOnOBLH
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) October 27, 2024
NBC needs to be fired into the sun for putting this on Peacock. Vegas also needs their heads examined for this large of a spread.
Pick: Michigan State +13.5
Air Force at Army (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
There are going to be fewer passes than points in the spread. The line is down three points already, and it may still be a half-point too high.
Pick: Air Force +3.5
Oklahoma at (24) Florida (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Ben Arbuckle gets fired, and the line jumps. We're about to find out if he was the real problem at Oklahoma. I'm more interested in whether John Mateer will get benched by halftime.
This feels like a game that Oklahoma will win, but I'm not confident enough to bet on it.
Pick: Oklahoma +6.5
Liberty (-17.5) at New Mexico State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I don't like the five-point jump in the line, but it makes sense. This was too low when it opened.
Pick: Liberty -17.5
West Virginia at (15) Texas Tech (-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I've had this one circled for a while. Everything that Cincinnati did to Texas Tech that spun that defense in circles, West Virginia can do better. The Mountaineers might not win, but this line is way too high.
Pick: West Virginia +16.5
Fresno State (-2.5) at Utah State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Fresno just punked Oregon State. This feels low, even with that strong Utah State defense.
Pick: Fresno State -2.5
Hawaii (-9.5) at UTEP
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Hawaii should win this, but stranger things have happened to the Rainbows on the mainland.
Pick: Hawaii -9.5
Texas State at Oregon State (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Texas State threw a scare into Boise last week. It's going to be a track meet in Reser Stadium under the lights. I'm looking forward to this one!
Pick: Texas State +6.5
Wyoming at UNLV (-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Tyler Hughes vs. Jackson Arnold is a low-key great QB matchup. This line is already down three points. There's money coming in on Wyoming. I'm going to follow that trend, but I don't think I'm betting on this one.
Pick: Wyoming +5.5
I only have one max bet this week, but I do have 10 four-pointers. Good luck out there!
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