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Michael Grennell looks at the most impactful injuries of the early 2021 MLB season to find the best injury replacements for fantasy baseball on waivers.
Now we've already had some major injuries this spring. Closers Kirby Yates and Jose Leclerc are both out for the year with Tommy John surgery, another closer candidate in Nick Anderson will miss the first half of the season with an elbow injury, and outfielder Eloy Jimenez will be out for most of the year with a torn pectoral muscle. But we're also now seeing guys being placed on the injured list with short-term injuries to start the year.
Shortly before I started work on this article, news broke that shortstop Adalberto Mondesi and outfielder George Springer — both top-50 players — will both start the year on the IL with oblique strains. So we're not even one day into the regular season and it's already time to scramble for replacements.
We're going to take a look at some of the key injuries from Spring Training, and we'll see whether you should be targeting whoever replaces them on their teams, or if you should be looking elsewhere on the waiver wire.
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Eloy Jimenez, Chicago White Sox
- Injury: Torn Pectoral
- Expected Return: August/September
- CHW Replacement(s): Andrew Vaughn, Adam Engel (IL), Leury Garcia
- Waiver Wire Option: Aaron Hicks, NYY (44% rostered)
Jimenez was set to have a breakout year in 2021, but now those plans are on hold after he injured himself in Spring Training trying to rob a home run. With Jimenez out, Chicago will start the year using a combination of utility man Leury Garcia and top prospect Andrew Vaughn in left, and once he returns from the IL, Adam Engel will figure to get time out there as well.
Vaughn has received much praise for his bat at the alternate site last year and in Spring Training this year, and should figure to get regular at-bats somewhere in the lineup whether it's at first base, designated hitter or left field. Vaughn is the more exciting guy, but if you're looking for the safer pick, look to add Aaron Hicks, who has been a consistent 15-to-20-homer, 10-steal threat over the last four years.
Luke Voit, New York Yankees
- Injury: Partially Torn Meniscus
- Expected Return: May
- NYY Replacement: Jay Bruce
- Waiver Wire Option: Bobby Dalbec, BOS (42%)
Voit underwent surgery on his knee shortly before the end of Spring Training, which has forced Jay Bruce into the starting role at first base. Much like with Jimenez's replacement, it will be a decision for managers as to whether they should go with the dependable, known guy or the exciting new prospect. Bruce won't hit for a high average, but he has power in his bat, having averaged 26 homers a year from 2015 through 2019.
Meanwhile, Bobby Dalbec has started the year 0-for-10 through his first three games, but he launched seven home runs in 19 games during Spring Training, and he hit 32 homers between High-A and Double-A in 2018, and 27 homers between Double-A and Triple-A in 2019. He also clubbed eight homers in 23 games with Boston in 2020. Bruce has gotten off to a marginally better start as he's 2-for-10 so far, but I say if you have to pick one, go with the higher upside guy in Dalbec.
Kirby Yates, Toronto Blue Jays
- Injury: Tommy John surgery
- Expected Return: 2022
- TOR Replacement: Julian Merryweather
- Waiver Wire Option: Nick Wittgren, CLE (26%)
In the couple of days that I've worked on writing this article, things have changed up a bit in Toronto. Originally, I was going to suggest managers look to target Wittgren as a replacement for Yates, as he is a high-strikeout reliever, and while he figures to be part of a closer-by-committee early on in Cleveland he still has value in fantasy.
I liked Wittgrens' potential over who I presumed to be the likely closer candidates in Toronto: Jordan Romano and Rafael Dolis. However, this weekend Julian Merryweather has stood out above the pack, as he already has two saves and has struck out five of the six batters he has faced. Hopefully, Merryweather is still available in your league, because he should be a top target among closer candidates.
Adalberto Mondesi, Kansas City Royals
- Injury: Oblique Strain
- Expected Return: late April
- KC Replacement: Nicky Lopez
- Waiver Wire Option: Garrett Hampson, COL (46%)
After dealing with a foot injury earlier in the spring, Mondesi ended up starting the year on the injured list with an oblique strain that is expected to keep him sidelined for a few weeks. Shortly after being cut from camp, Nicky Lopez found himself rejoining the Royals and slotting in as their starting shortstop. Lopez came up through the minors displaying 15-homer, 15-steal potential, but that potential has yet to materialize as he has a career .231/.280/.308 triple-slash line with three home runs and one steal in 162 career games across three years.
Fantasy managers really shouldn't bother looking at Lopez, and should instead check out Garrett Hampson. He has shown double-digit home run potential, with the potential to swipe 20 or more bases in his minor league career. His best year in the majors so far was in 2018, when he hit eight home runs with 15 steals while slashing .247/.302/.385 in 105 games. Hampson looked solid this spring, hitting .283 with a .758 OPS and six steals in 23 games. Simply put, Hampson has looked far better in the majors than Lopez, and Hampson is the guy managers should target to replace Mondesi.
Kyle Lewis, Seattle Mariners
- Injury: Bone Bruise in Knee
- Expected Return: mid-to-late April
- SEA Replacement: Jake Fraley
- Waiver Wire Option: Victor Reyes, DET (27%)
Lewis recently began baseball activities again, but he's still likely a couple of weeks away from returning to the Mariners lineup. In the meantime, Jake Fraley has replaced Lewis in the outfield, and while he is only 1-for-6 to start the year, he has managed to draw six walks in 13 plate appearances. Fraley has shown a good ability to get on base in the minors with a career 9.1 percent walk rate and a .362 OBP, and when he gets on base he flashes some speed, averaging almost 18 stolen bases per year in four seasons in the minors.
If you're looking for help outside of Seattle, Victor Reyes is a good option to take a look at. He's 0-for-7 to start the year, but he put up solid numbers this spring by slashing .313/.389/.406 with four RBI and a stolen base in 15 games. Reyes has shown similar stolen base potential to Fraley, but unlike Fraley, Reyes also has 10 to 15-homer potential. It's a close call as to who will have the better value until Lewis returns, and it will likely boil down to whether you want the better home run potential (Reyes) or better OBP potential (Fraley).
Harrison Bader, St. Louis Cardinals
- Injury: Forearm Discomfort
- Expected Return: early-to-mid May
- STL Replacement: Justin Williams
- Waiver Wire Option: Brandon Nimmo, NYM (25%)
With Bader out for the first four to six weeks, Dylan Carlson has taken over in center for the Cardinals. But Carlson was already likely to get playing time even with Bader in the lineup, so the guy who has really stepped in to replace Bader in the lineup is actually Justin Williams. And so far it hasn't been a great start for Williams, who is 0-for-9 with five strikeouts through his first three games. This slow start is basically a continuation of a sluggish spring, in which he slashed .229/.308/.343 with one home run in 20 games.
Looking at the waiver wire for an alternate option, managers might want to take a look at Brandon Nimmo. Nimmo and the Mets only just started their season on Monday after the opening series with Washington was postponed due to a COVID-19 outbreak on the Nationals. In his first game of the year, Nimmo went 1-for-3 with a walk and two strikeouts against the Phillies. But during Spring Training Nimmo was looking good, slashing .294/.379/.490 with two home runs, one steal and a 14:6 K:BB ratio in 17 games.
Nimmo is a 15-homer threat with the potential to touch double-digit steals, and between Williams and Nimmo it's no contest. Although he batted eighth rather than leadoff in the Mets' opener, that shouldn't be the case too often going forward. Managers should look to target Nimmo until Bader returns.
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