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Dynasty fantasy football trade candidates to buy or sell for Week 16 of the 2024 NFL season. Jorden Hill lists overvalued and undervalued players to target or trade away.
It's semifinals week! With just two playoff rounds remaining in most fantasy leagues, there is limited time to take advantage of the in-season dynasty market. Player values are sure to change drastically the moment Week 17 is in the books and will continue to fluctuate throughout the offseason.
At this point in the season, I didn't plan on recapping my trade advice from previous weeks since dynasty deals are far too nuanced to be evaluated after one game. That said, two names attached to last week's article must be addressed. I recommended trading away Davante Adams before his nine-for-198-and-two explosion and trading for Jauan Jennings ahead of his underwhelming Thursday night showing. While Adams may now have more dynasty value than he did last week, I mentioned that trading him away was an obvious move only on rebuilding teams and not a necessary move on contenders. Jennings, like most of the fantasy assets in San Francisco's showdown with the Rams, didn't get anything going in a rainy snoozefest. I like his chances to bounce back, especially against the Lions in championship week.
Although I don't think either of those suggestions was as egregious as it may look on the surface, I still hope to improve this week, especially when giving out players to acquire in pursuit of a title. Without further ado, let's look at two now.
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Players to Target in Trades for Dynasty Fantasy Football
Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
Not many players saw as large a decline in dynasty value this season as Travis Etienne Jr. The fourth-year pro was considered a top-10 running back before Week 1 but was valued outside of the top 24 on www.KeepTradeCut.com by early November.
At the time, you would have been lucky to get a second-round rookie pick for Etienne, even though he was going for more than a first just a few months prior.
Etienne is still far from dynasty RB1 territory but trending in the right direction. Offensive snaps have not been split consistently between him and running mate Tank Bigsby, but Etienne is clearly the preferred option in the passing game and ran more effectively this past Sunday.
Travis Etienne out-snapped Tank Bigsby on Sunday 61 to 22, running 24 more routes, per PFF.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) December 16, 2024
Etienne's 65 rushing yards were his most in a game since Week 3 and he added four receptions for 20 yards through the air. That's good for 10.5 half-PPR points and a top-24 weekly finish. Nothing special, but worth looking into.
Unless you believe that the soon-to-be 26-year-old Etienne is already past his prime or destined to be out of the league within the next few years, there's not much to dislike about his current cost. As a former first-round NFL Draft selection who has produced at the professional level, Etienne is going to stick around for a bit, whether it be on the Jaguars or elsewhere.
Regardless, a win-now dynasty manager contemplating investing draft capital in Etienne should only do so if he can help win a championship, right? Well, luckily, Etienne has an excellent set of matchups on the horizon. The Raiders and Titans await in Weeks 16 and 17, respectively.
Las Vegas has been decent against fantasy backs this season but allows nearly 4.5 yards per carry and plenty of receptions to the position. Tennessee has been strong against wide receivers but vulnerable to RB production. Etienne tallied four receptions for 50 yards against the Titans two weeks ago.
Don't go and trade a first or young stud receiver for Etienne, as you shouldn't need to. If you can add him for a second or slightly more, why not take the shot? We've seen top-5 upside from Etienne on multiple occasions and should see him get a good bit of work as Jacksonville closes out the season with Mac Jones at the helm.
Calvin Ridley, Tennessee Titans
I highlighted Calvin Ridley as a redraft trade target back in Week 11. He has been pretty disappointing since then but serviceable as a WR3 or flex option.
I'm bringing him up again for some of the same reasons and one new one. Let's start with the repeats.
Since trading DeAndre Hopkins, the Titans have very few weapons in the passing game. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine can have a big game every once in a while, Chig Okonkwo has shown signs of life recently, and Tyler Boyd is ... there ... I think. All jokes aside, Ridley is the only one commanding a notable target share.
Additionally, the Titans had a great upcoming schedule for wide receivers in Week 11, and still do. The Colts and Jaguars are Ridley's remaining opponents for the fantasy playoffs. Indianapolis has been surprisingly solid against wideouts as of late after a rough start to the campaign, but this could be more of an indictment on its run defense than it is a credit to its pass defense.
Teams are running all over the Colts. Tennessee may struggle to do so, however, if Tony Pollard is limited or held out. Pollard is dealing with a nagging ankle injury that he aggravated last week, so it's possible the Titans shut him down with nothing left to play for. Tyjae Spears, who has struggled on the ground this year, would be the next man up.
It's honestly a shame that the Jaguars play the Titans in fantasy championship week and not a team with a more reliable offense. Nonetheless, wideouts facing Jacksonville are must-starts. Davante Adams absolutely decimated the Jags last week and Garrett Wilson still had a fine day.
Ridley didn't exactly capitalize on this cakewalk matchup or the revenge-game narrative against Jacksonville in Week 14, but he did have seven receptions for 59 yards on 12 targets. Things could be different this time around.
Will Levis was benched for Mason Rudolph after turning the ball over four times in three quarters last week. On Tuesday, it was announced that Rudolph is expected to start in Week 16.
The Titans should have more success through the air going forward with Rudolph under center.
Mason Rudolph in 2 quarters
21/26, 209 yards, 2 TD passes, 1 INT https://t.co/kUcxJvwlzP
— Adam (@zandermercury) December 15, 2024
Rudolph isn't a world-beater by any means, but he averaged over 240 passing yards per game with four touchdown passes over three starts between Weeks 7 and 9. Ridley was the WR17 during this stretch, mostly due to his output in Week 8. He commanded a whopping 15 targets and logged 10 receptions for 143 yards, all season highs.
I encourage trading for Ridley on any contending team because you shouldn't have to give up much. I'd be happy to sell my second-round rookie pick for a player with a league-winning ceiling over the final two weeks. The future doesn't look too shabby, either, as Ridley is locked in on a massive contract and should get an upgrade at quarterback in 2025.
Players to Trade Away for Dynasty Fantasy Football
Rico Dowdle, Dallas Cowboys
As someone who drafted a lot of Rico Dowdle this season, trust me when I say I am not rooting against him.
Dallas finally figured out that splitting touches between Dowdle and Ezekiel Elliott was not working. With a full allotment of opportunities over the past few weeks, Dowdle has been outstanding.
Rico Dowdle the last 3 Weeks:
🔹 392 Rushing Yards (1st among RBs)
🔹 283 Yards After Contact (1st among RBs)
🔹 14 Rushes of 10+ Yards (1st among RBs)
🔹 18 Rushes for First Down (2nd among RBs)
🔹 16 Missed Tackles Forced (1st among RBs) pic.twitter.com/FDgOH9JODQ— PFF Fantasy & Betting (@PFF_Fantasy) December 16, 2024
Not to take anything away from what Dowdle has done, but we have to consider his opponents. Starting in Week 13, he faced the Giants, Bengals, and Panthers, respectively. New York and Carolina, both surrendering right around five yards per tote, are the league's worst two run defenses.
Although Cincinnati was strong against the run earlier this year, it has given up the 10th-most fantasy points to running backs over the past eight weeks.
The final two weeks of the fantasy playoffs may not be so kind to Dowdle. This Sunday night, the Cowboys will take on the Buccaneers, who have shut down the run in 2024 while bleeding yards through the air. In Week 17, Dowdle will have to overcome the Eagles, one of the NFL's best all-around defenses, in Philadelphia.
The Eagles have given up the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs through 15 weeks. This is not the matchup to rely on Dowdle with a fantasy championship on the line.
Looking past this season, the future is very uncertain for Dowdle. He'll enter unrestricted free agency just before turning 27 in 2025. Dallas could opt to bring him back, but he'd almost certainly have more competition on the team with him next year.
Numerous sources have already mocked Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty as going to the Cowboys in the first round of April's draft. Jeanty went to high school in the Dallas area and would be an incredible weapon for a healthy Dak Prescott to have in the backfield.
If your dynasty team with Dowdle has already been eliminated from the playoffs, there is very little incentive to hold him down the stretch. He unfortunately has no job security and is on the older side for a player at his position. A second-round rookie pick is an adequate return for Dowdle.
Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland Browns
Assuming you heard the big news Tuesday, this one is painfully obvious, but hopefully not so obvious that it hinders your ability to get a deal done.
The Browns are sending Jameis Winston to the bench in favor of Dorian Thompson-Robinson. This is devastating news for Jerry Jeudy, who has finally broken out as a star in his fifth professional season.
Jeudy has scored as the WR4 since Week 8. It is no coincidence that this is the same week Winston made his first start in place of the injured Deshaun Watson. Jeudy hit paydirt three times and eclipsed the century mark in receiving yards three times with Winston at quarterback.
Because Jeudy is a former first-round pick with plenty of hype coming out of college, it would be silly to label this dominant stretch of his a mirage. He is still just 25 years old with $41 million guaranteed on his contract. Unfortunately, the situation often supersedes talent in fantasy football.
Even with his shortcomings as an NFL quarterback, Winston is superior to Thompson-Robinson.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson among 64 QBs with 125+ dropbacks in 2023-24:
EPA per dropback: -0.284 (62nd)
Completion percentage over expected: -12.8% (63rd)
Passer rating: 42.6 (64th)
Pass TD rate: 0.7% (64th)
INT rate: 4.8% (62nd)
Yards per attempt: 3.7 (64th) https://t.co/M1sxq7rJMS— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) December 17, 2024
It is going to be extremely challenging for Jeudy to maintain his hot streak with DTR as QB1, even in a juicy matchup against Cincinnati this week. Next week, Cleveland will face the Dolphins, who have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to receivers this season.
While no one knows for sure what the Browns will do at quarterback in 2025, many local reporters believe that Watson will be in the mix and given another opportunity to earn the starting gig. This makes sense, considering Watson is still owed a boatload of money, but it's terrible for the outlook of Cleveland's pass-catchers.
Jeudy is unlikely to reach the numbers he posted with Winston again anytime soon. The Browns would have to make an unforeseen move in the offseason or hit on a rookie quarterback that not only convinces them to bench Watson and his $46 million contract but produces immediately.
Contenders and rebuilders alike would be wise to strike while the iron is hot and move Jeudy. It may not be possible to get a first-round rookie pick for him alone, but adding something small like a third or a bench piece could be enough to push the deal over the finish line.
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