Bounceback Hitters: Fantasy Baseball ADP Values for Infielders (2025)

February 10, 2025

Eric's bounceback hitters, fantasy baseball ADP values and draft targets for infielders in 2025. His fantasy baseball batters to target at their ADP in drafts.

The long winter is almost over, and fantasy baseball draft season is kicking into high gear. The month of February is the first big draft month for most, especially with the end of football after the Super Bowl. So whether or not you already have been drafting/prepping or are beginning now, RotoBaller has you covered with plenty of helpful content to get you ready for all of your drafts.

One key aspect to having a good draft and succeeding in fantasy baseball is identifying which players could bounce back who disappointed the previous season for one reason or another. That could be due to poor performance, injury, or a combination of the two.

That's what I'll be focusing on today as I discuss five infielders who underwhelmed in 2025, who I believe will bounce back in 2025 and provide a positive ROI at their respective ADPs.

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Trevor Story, SS, Boston Red Sox

ADP: ~250

This one 100% hinges on if Trevor Story can stay on the field which has been a difficult task for him during his three seasons as a member of the Boston Red Sox.

In 163 games with Boston, Story has racked up 21 home runs and 29 steals. That looks all fine and dandy until you remember that those 163 games are from the last three seasons combined. Reports out of Boston have been positive in regards to Story's health this offseason, and he should be a full go for 2025. At least to start.

I'm taking Story's metrics last season with a grain of salt, as I'm not sure he was ever 100% healthy. Instead, let us focus on his pre-2024 metrics. In every season of his career before 2024, Story had a barrel rate above 8.5% and a hard-hit rate of 39.8% or higher. He's also continued to be an above-average runner, even as his sprint speed has slightly dipped over the last few seasons.

Even if Story can give us just 550 plate appearances, he could make a run at 20 home runs and 25 steals and maybe close to 150 combined runs and RBI hitting in the middle of Boston's lineup. However, given his 31.1% strikeout rate and 69.7% contact rate, I wouldn't expect an average above .250 or so.

But with that said, Story did improve his zone contact rate from 75.2% to 82.9% and his walk rate from 5.4% to a career-best 10.4% in 2024. It was a small sample size, but still encouraging for 2025. Again, it all boils down to health with Story, but that's baked into his ADP around 250 as the 24th shortstop off the board.

Isaac Paredes, 3B, Houston Astros

ADP: ~181

This one feels like low-hanging fruit, but Isaac Paredes fits so well in an article like this. In general, I've never been a big Paredes supporter and scoffed when he was being discussed as an elite third baseman for fantasy after his 31-homer season back in 2023.

Those who drafted him in the Top 100 last season were rewarded with a .238/.346/.393 slash line and 19 home runs in 641 plate appearances. Paredes wasn't even the worst rostering in most leagues down the stretch after he went from Tampa Bay to Chicago, where the left-field wall was 40 feet further away.

But now Paredes gets dealt into maybe the ideal ballpark for his profile, and as you can see above, Paredes's spray chart overlay in Houston last season is highly intriguing. And if you're someone who likes xHR, Paredes' xHR in Houston last season was 26, which was easily the highest mark out of all 30 MLB ballparks.

Now, with all of that said, I'm not expecting a return to 2023 levels. Paredes' quality of contact is well below average, with a 4.5% barrel rate, 85 mph AVG EV, and 27.1% hard-hit rate. But he's able to maximize what little power he has given his extreme pull tendencies.

Those tendencies and selling out for power have always kept the AVG on the lower end, though, and Paredes will likely always have an AVG much lower than his 89% zone and 83% overall contact rates would suggest.

In 43 Draft Champion drafts on NFBC since January 1, Paredes' ADP has snuck inside the Top 200 overall, which is a fair range. Again, I'm not projecting a return to 2023, but somewhere in the vicinity of .250 with 23-26 home runs seems attainable in 2025. ATC projections have Paredes slashing .238/.337/.419 with 22 home runs in 142 games.

Triston Casas, 1B, Boston Red Sox

ADP: ~125

I'm going to be feasting on that 125 ADP for Triston Casas this season. FEASTING, I say! He's currently coming off the board as the 13th first baseman off the board, and while I understand why, that's also way too low for what he's capable of in 2025.

In 2024, Casas was limited to 243 plate appearances due to a major rib injury and slashed .241/.337/.462 with 13 home runs overall. But if we rewind to the second half of 2023, Casas was one of the best hitters in all of baseball. In the second half of 2023, Casas slashed .317/.417/.617 with 15 home runs and a 14.2% walk rate while only striking out 23.7% of the time.

The only four hitters with a higher wRC+ and wOBA than Casas during this span were Matt Olson, Ronald Acuña Jr., Mookie Betts, and that Shohei Ohtani fellow.

TRISTON CASAS WITH THE 3 HOMER GAME!

THIS TIME OFF A LEFTY!!! pic.twitter.com/SA1q7wHjLt

— Tyler Milliken (@tylermilliken_) September 22, 2024

While I'm not saying he can produce at that level for an entire season or that he's going to be a first-round talent, the upside is certainly there for Casas to jump up into the top tier of fantasy first basemen this season, given his elite power and on-base abilities if his contact and strikeout rates can rebound to pre-2024 levels.

Even during his 2023 dominance, Casas wasn't a great contact hitter but had a 74% contact rate and 11% SwStr rate.

Sean Murphy, C, Atlanta Braves

ADP: ~244

Maybe the Braves used all of their offensive magic in 2023 and left none for 2024. Something had to happen as nearly every Atlanta hitter returned a negative ROI last season for their respective ADP, including Sean Murphy, who was being drafted as a Top 10 catcher.

In 264 plate appearances, Murphy hit 10 home runs with a disappointing .193/.284/.352 slash line. But when we look under the hood, there's reason for optimism heading into 2025.

You have to wonder if Murphy was ever truly 100% healthy last season. He suffered an oblique injury on Opening Day and returned near the end of May but wasn't the same hitter, and his power dipped.

After posting a 16.1% barrel rate, 91.5 mph AVG EV, and 45.8% hard-hit rate in 2023, Murphy dropped to 9.6%, 88 mph, and 36.5%, respectively, in those metrics. He also saw his groundball rate rise from 41.4% to 53.3%, while his zone and overall contact rates dropped 2% and 2.5%, respectively.

However, none of Murphy's contact, approach, or power metrics are what I would deem worrisome and aren't indicative of the surface slash line that he finished with. Some poor luck played a factor into Murphy's season last year as well with a .223 BABIP after being closer to .300 in each of the previous two seasons.

Once you factor in better health and realistic positive regression, Murphy is a prime bounce-back candidate this season. Murphy is currently going off the board as the 16th catcher in NFBC drafts. If you don't want to invest earlier in a catcher, I'd be more than fine waiting and buying the dip on Murphy.

Bo Bichette, SS, Toronto Blue Jays

ADP: ~142

It's actually amazing how many people are down or out on Bo Bichette heading into 2025. It's certainly fine to value him lower than we did entering 2024, given the season he's coming off of, but Bichette is getting treated like he's a strict avoid in 2025, which blows my mind.

Yes, his 2024 season stung deeply if you drafted him, but we're talking about a 26-year-old who was an early-round asset entering last season. I'm willing to give him at least some benefit of the doubt here.

On the surface, Bichette's .225/.277/.322 slash line with four home runs and five steals in 336 plate appearances looks terrible. However, many of his metrics were in line with previous seasons or at least close to it.

Bichette was still better than the league average in zone contact, overall contact, and strikeout rate while only seeing a slight drop in his hard-hit rate and AVG EV. Both of those marks were still better than the league average as well. The notable drop was Bichette's barrel rate dropping from 9.6% to 4.4%.

While he's never been one to have a Savant page glowing red, Bichette's underlying metrics tell a completely different story than his 2024 surface stats do.

Maybe he's not an early-round fantasy asset again, but I'd bank on Bichette bouncing back to Top-100 value in 2025, and I'd be more than willing to invest this season, given his ADP around pick 140.

Other Bounceback Candidates

• Christian Encarnacion-Strand (1B - CIN)
• Andres Gimenez (2B - TOR)
• Bryson Stott (2B - PHI)
• Royce Lewis (3B - MIN)
• Josh Jung (3B - TEX)
• Nolan Arenado (3B - STL)
• Ke'Bryan Hayes (3B - PIT)
• Noelvi Marte (3B - CIN)

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