Early-Round Fades and Overvalued Studs

December 15, 2020

Mike Kurland evaluates four early picks for 2021 fantasy baseball drafts that could be busts or players to fade based on current ADP.

Entering 2021, there is a bit of recency bias in the early ADP as well as an overall sense of unknown entering 2021 as a whole in terms of what rules are in place, where players are going to hit in the lineup or even where many players will play and how that could affect other players in the process.

With that said, drafts are already taking place. There is a lot of data to take in and player analysis to go with it. Today we are diving into players to avoid at their current ADP.

The early ADP being referenced is taken from NFBC drafts as of 12-14-20. 

DJ LeMahieu, New York Yankees

ADP: 28.21

This strongly hinges on where he signs. We know how great Yankee Stadium has been to DJ LeMahieu but if he leaves, we could see a sizable decline in power as well as counting stats due to the likely lineup he ends up in won’t be as good as the Yankees lineup. How big of a potential impact can leaving Yankee Stadium have on his power? Well, check this out.

Not to mention, prior to joining the Yankees, LeMahieu spent seven years in Colorado. This is one of the best hitters parks and his career-high home run mark was just 15 during this span. The hit tool is fantastic, but with a swing that caters to New York like no other ballpark, we can expect to see a decline across the board if he leaves.

Without his staying in New York being assured as of now, taking LeMahieu at this ADP is an unnecessary risk. Especially considering safe options like Corey Seager and Ozzie Albies are also available at this point, both of which should get preference at this time. 

Vladimir Gurrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays

ADP: 58.70

How have we now had two straight seasons of disappointment in terms of production vs. expectations and yet we cannot seem to get any discount of the draft cost of a player? The cost continues to baffle me. Vladimir Gurrero Jr. has both the prospect pedigree and the minor league production. However, he has yet to put it together at the MLB level.

Entering his age-22 season, there is little reason to be concerned about the long-term outlook. Being vaulted onto this stage at his age, given his father's DNA, did not help matters and anything short of greatness was going to be disappointing. To expect such lofty numbers from someone so young who never played in the MLB is just not fair. Yes, we have seen it recently with Acuna, Soto and Tatis, among others, but it is unfair to assume all prospects will come out the gates swinging. Not all prospect growth is linear (as Paul Sporer has said many times on Sleeper and the Bust). 

At just 21 years old, Vlad has played 183 games. Unfortunately, he has not lived up to expectations with only 24 home runs, a .269 batting average and a .778 OPS to show for it. We know the numbers should come. One thing you should not doubt is the power. Among qualified hitters, Vlad had the fifth hardest-hit ball in 2020. We have come to learn that max exit velocity is a great indicator of power potential. Makes sense.

In 2020, Vladito posted career-best marks to date in average exit velocity (92.5 MPH - 93rd percentile) and hard hit rate (50.8% - 93rd percentile).  It comes with roughly a league-average walk rate but elite strikeout numbers which suggests that the plus hit tool is still playing well to MLB pitching but the production has yet to follow. He has crushed fastballs but in 2019 it was breaking balls that gave him a hard time; in 2020, he seemed to have adapted to breaking pitches but offspeed pitches were the issue. Pitchers took notice as they altered their approach by increasing offspeed usage against him from 10.6% in 2019 to 14.9% in 2020. With his hit tool, I have zero doubt he will figure this out. 

The biggest issue for his struggles are the ground balls. In 2019, he posted a 50.4% ground ball rate and in 2020 he followed that up with a 54.6% ground ball rate. With his size and lack of speed, that type of ground ball rate will be a huge hindrance to his production and the power won’t be able to play as well either as he continues to crush the ball into the ground. Oddly enough, he has struggled a bit against LHP to this point in his career, only hitting .218/.303/.415 with a .306 wOBA and a 91 wRC+. There is reason for optimism as his plate discipline against LHP is fantastic. He has a walk rate of 10.9% and a strikeout rate of 16.6% and the BABIP is a lowly .222.

I expect better moving forward, but worth noting and monitoring. The positive news so far this offseason is that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has reportedly lost 32 pounds since the start of the offseason. That is a step in the right direction. I am not ready to give up on him for the long term by any means, but to expect the sudden huge breakout in 2021 doesn’t seem fair or likely at this point. I do expect better but I wouldn’t bet on it being enough to justify the current ADP for 2021.

Dinelson Lamet, San Diego Padres

ADP: 68.34

There is no denying Dinelson Lamet more than came through for his team and fantasy managers alike in 2020. It is hard to find any flaw in his production, so why am I fading Lamet? It is simple. Health. He has already had Tommy John surgery in the past and he ended the 2020 season with a biceps issue in his throwing arm. People may say it happened in 2020 so he should be fine. That’s what everyone thought of Chris Sale entering 2020 as well. Not to mention, reports also stated Mike Clevinger wouldn’t need surgery either and we now know he is out for 2021 after getting Tommy John surgery. If this biceps injury was not that bad, then Lamet wouldn’t have missed the playoffs. He couldn’t even get cleared to throw off the mound. 

This is a pitcher who relies on his dominant, overpowering stuff and with ongoing arm issues, I cannot draft him with any confidence at his current price. Not only does he need his dominant stuff, but he threw his slider 53.4% of the time in 2020. That seems unsustainable over a full season as a starter. We often see relief pitchers able sustain such a pace with their offspeed offerings, but I cannot recall a starter with this type of pitch mix pitching 150 plus innings with it. This leads me to believe he would need to alter his approach to help him meet the innings.

Doing so could result in Lamet leaning on the fastball more and although the fastball improved in 2020, there’s a good chance it played up due to the effectiveness of the slider. We know Lamet can be dominant when healthy, but there is enough of a track record to question the health over a full season and paired with a likelihood of a step backward, I want no part of Lamet at the going rate. 

Keston Hiura, Milwaukee Brewers

ADP: 66.70

Keston Hiura is a player to root for but coming off a 2019 season where he overperformed and a 2020 where pitchers seem to have figured him out a bit, there are real questions as to what we should expect in 2021. He has struggled with strikeouts mightily since his call up. He has yet to strikeout less than 30% of the time as a Major Leaguer.

In 2021, among qualified hitters, Hiura had the:

• Second worst SwStr% in baseball: 20.4%
• The 7th worst O-Contact%: 47.1%
• The worst Z-Contact%: 67.9%
• The worst overall Contact% in baseball: 59.3%

This is a pairing you never want to see. He also struggled against balls up in the zone in a big way.

In 2019, the issues were not as bad up in the zone, but there were some warning signs in terms of potential struggles. It appears teams took note and attacked. Hiura also faced less fastballs as a whole while seeing more offspeed and breaking pitches. This is showing us that pitchers adapted.

Lastly, there are concerns with the stolen base production. We can deal with batting average issues if we are getting the plus power and plus speed but the stolen base success rate has been bad. Other than 2019 (76%), Hiura has never posted a success rate above 60% at any level in the majors or minors. Although the Brewers are known to run, how can we bank on the green light remaining lit if he continues to run into outs?

Long-term, I have very few concerns but for 2021, I need to see Hiura adapt to the way pitchers changed their approach to him and show he can hit pitches high in the zone better while lowering his strikeout rate. 

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