Jon Gray isn't a rookie. OK, that's a lie because technically he is, but you know what I mean. The man (he's almost 25 years old for crying out loud) is pitching like a seasoned veteran and yet I keep seeing him mentioned as a streaming option or waiver option. It's a travesty that we have to keep him on our famous waiver wire pickups list each week because he's only owned in 24% of leagues!

Although he may not sport a gray beard any time soon, his numbers are comparable to some of the most established starters in Major League Baseball. So now, just like your favorite Kindergarten teacher, I'm going to start another weekly show and tell session about the wonders of Jon Gray and his exciting fastball! For maximum reading pleasure, I highly recommend sitting down criss-cross apple sauce on the carpet first.

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Breaking Down Jon Gray

Let's start by pretending April didn't exist. Gray was called up in mid-April and didn't quite seem ready for prime time, allowing 11 ER in 8.2 IP in his first two outings. Look, he was only 24 and a half way back then and it was two starts against the Pirates and Dodgers in Coors Field. Cut the man some slack. Since April, Gray's ERA has dropped steadily each month, from 4.17 in May to 3.77 in June and just 1.98 in July. At that rate, he will have a negative ERA by September.

It would be a -5.27 ERA to be exact. Pretty sure Clayton Kershaw would still find a way to beat that. 

Seriously though, Gray's ratios have been excellent since May began and he has maintained his excellence consistently. On the entire season, including those first two horrid starts, Gray is 21st in the majors in xFIP with a 3.62. This places him ahead of veterans such as Jon Lester, Zack Greinke, and Chris Sale. His current numbers look pretty good right now at 3.94 ERA/1.15 WHIP. Subtract those first two starts, and his ratios fall to a 3.29 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 16 starts. That ERA would place him in the top 30 among all qualifying starters. Pretty good for a rookie. The WHIP, however, would place him in the top 10 in MLB, ahead of Johnny Cueto, Jacob deGrom, and Jake Arrieta. Yeah, he's been that good if you haven't noticed.

Much like the best sumo wrestlers, he also ceremonially patrols the mound before each game in an effort to intimidate the opposition. Looks like it's working.

The Coors factor has certainly scared away many a fantasy manager from Gray and counterpart Tyler Anderson, who is also pitching extremely well in his rookie year. How is Gray faring in the renowned hitters haven? Not too shabby actually... Overall, he has maintained a 4.22 ERA and 1.08 WHIP at home. Exclude April again and we're looking at a 2.68 ERA and 0.84 WHIP at home. Yes, still talking about Coors Field. You know, where pitchers go to die?  His control has actually been better at home and his strikeouts are up, making him MORE attractive to start in Colorado. He holds a 5.50 K/BB in eight home starts, compared to a 2.36 K/BB on the road. He strikes out 10.1 K/9 at home, which in itself gives him fantasy value. Incidentally, he hasn't lost yet in Coors Field, sporting a 4-0 record.

Why aren't more stadiums named after beer? I mean, I love dogs and everything, but does Petco Park sound like a sports venue or a place you take your schnauzer each evening for an excuse to talk to that girl with the poodle?

Speaking of strikeouts, you know I'm going to show you lots of those because it's Gray's primary asset. His overall K/9 is 9.36 and remains consistent with his minor league track record. He struck out exactly one batter per inning across four minor league seasons and kept a 3.06 K/BB. He is mirroring those numbers so far with the Rockies. Let me remind you he is technically a rookie, so even slight improvement in his command in the coming years should make him a, dare I use the word, elite value in both K and WHIP.

Let's use some more veteran comps. His 12.1% SwStr% is 10th in the majors, ahead of Chris Archer, Madison Bumgarner and Justin Verlander and dead even with Corey Kluber and David Price.

Finally, his 50.8% O-Contact% is fourth in baseball, ahead of everybody except Clayton Kershaw, Jose Fernandez and, believe it or not, Michael Pineda.

You would have swung at that too, just admit it.

Jon Gray should rightfully be owned in every fantasy league, deep or shallow, dynasty or not. The only negative this former third overall pick has going for him is the fact he wears a Rockies uniform. I was skeptical at first too, but after picking him up in three different leagues this season, I've changed my opinion very quickly. His success at home has proven that talent supercedes adverse circumstances. This season has proven that it is wise to be wary of rookie pitchers, but you can't go wrong if you go Gray.

 

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