Running Back Matchups to Target in Week 3 - Derrick Henry, Kenneth Walker III, Ashton Jeanty, more

September 26, 2026

Thunder Dan's favorite RB matchups to exploit for Week 3 of 2026 - DFS running backs to target on DraftKings and FanDuel. These RB matchups are GPP and cash game opportunities.

It's the weekend - you made it! Now you're ready to start building DFS lineups, placing prop bets, and adjusting your season-long lineups for Sunday afternoon.

Week 3 brings us another crop of interesting matchups and perhaps our best collection of backs on the main Sunday slate, with Jahmyr Gibbs, Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, and Kenneth Walker III all playing on the same DFS slate for the first time this season. Jahmyr Gibbs is getting so many touches that he's probably going to be chalk every week at this point, and his matchup doesn't crack the top half of my ratings.

So let's dig a little deeper, shall we? I have a good mix of high-priced studs in smash spots and some potentially less heavily-rostered pivots. Let's get to it! Here are my top four matchups for Week 3.

Week 3 Running Back Matchups

Back for Week 3, these are my "Thunder Dan Matchup Grades," which incorporate data from both Pro Football Focus and the DVOA ratings found at FTN.

Remember, we are not evaluating the backs' elusiveness, explosiveness, or ability to break tackles. We are looking at the quality of their blockers, their offensive schemes, projected role and usage, and then finally taking an educated guess on the projected game script for each back this week.

This data is fresh from the first two weeks of this season only, so we have to also take it with a grain of salt. Ideally, in these first few weeks, we should look at both last year's data and this season's small sample size to see who pops when we blend the two.

Derrick Henry ($7,700 DK, $9,000 FD)

Baltimore Ravens vs. Dallas Cowboys

Henry is the runaway leader in my ratings this week. Baltimore has the top rating in three of the four metrics that I use to calculate my ratings, with only the Rams having a higher PFF run-blocking grade through the first two weeks of this season.

I highlighted Henry last week against the Saints, and he had a solid game running for 68 yards and a touchdown. But it certainly wasn't the type of "Derrick Henry" game that we have become accustomed to since he came to Baltimore.

He went 11-51-1 in the first half, but credit New Orleans for loading up to stop him in the third quarter and forcing the Ravens to throw the football in the second half. When the Ravens go away from Henry, it can be frustrating to watch because he usually does some of his best work in the late stages of games as opponents wear down. But the game script was flipped in that game, and Henry's final stat line reflected that at the end of the day.

Derrick Henry takes it himself for SIX 👑

NOvsBAL on CBS/Paramount+
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/xTPWbcJhpE

— NFL (@NFL) September 20, 2026

The most important takeaway for me is that Baltimore lost the game. I don't think offensive coordinator Declan Doyle (who drew criticism about Henry's lack of second-half touches) makes that same mistake this week, and I am not sure that Dallas can slow down Henry, even if they try.

The Cowboys are allowing the fifth-most adjusted line yards in the league, while Baltimore is creating the third-most. Remember, the ALY stat attempts to measure how many yards per attempt are created (or allowed for defenses) by the blockers and blocking scheme without accounting for the running back's ability to break tackles, make defenders miss, and create yardage on their own.

While other metrics do factor in the talent of the running back, my O-line matchups basically find the spots where we can say "any decent NFL running back should have success running behind this group of blockers against their projected opponent in a neutral game script."

The Cowboys struggled to stop Cam Skattebo in Week 1, and allowed 4.5 YPC to Washington's trio of Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Rachaad White, and Kaytron Allen. They also gave up 7-69 to Jayden Daniels before his injury, which bodes well for Lamar Jackson. But in general, they have failed to stop the run and were pretty fortunate that Daniels got hurt last week and forced the Commanders into a pass-heavy game script with their backup quarterback.

The Ravens are implied for 28 points in this game, and could be without Zay Flowers again this week. I look for them to ride Henry and the run game against Dallas, which is a matchup that they should win. He's a threat for multiple touchdowns every week as he's unstoppable at the goal line, giving Henry a legitimate shot to be the top-scoring back on Sunday.

Kenneth Walker III ($7,400 DK, $8,300 FD)

Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins

K9 has 26 and 30 touches in his first two games as a member of the Kansas City Chiefs. I mean, how do we fade that type of volume in the second-best-rated matchup on the board?

Short answer - WE DON'T.

The Chiefs offense has looked much improved with a healthy Patrick Mahomes under center, and they clearly weren't fibbing when they said this offseason they were going to feed Walker in both the run game and as a pass-catcher.

We saw Walker rip off big gains as a runner in Seattle, but his ability as a receiver was on full display last week as he caught six of 10 targets for 61 yards. Offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy made a concerted effort to scheme Walker some easy catches to get him in space where he's so dangerous.

Kenneth Walker III rumbles the @Chiefs into FG range!

INDvsKC on NBC/Peacock
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/n46H4CBO2f

— NFL (@NFL) September 21, 2026

The aspect of this matchup that could go overlooked is how badly Miami has fared against backs as receivers this year. They rank 31st in DVOA against RBs in the passing game. They held Christian McCaffrey to just 23 yards on 10 carries last week, but CMC still did damage as a receiver with 4-43 through the air, while fullback Kyle Juszczyk added 2-27-1 as well.

In Week 1, they allowed the Raiders' Ashton Jeanty to catch six balls for 45 yards, too. While Emmett Johnson is set to see his role increase this week (and I love his receiving prop), Walker is still going to get his touches first, and I won't be surprised if he still sees 18-20 carries in this one and another 4-5 targets as a receiver.

Kansas City's offensive line has graded out quite well so far. Their ability to open holes for Walker in the opener against a good Denver defense definitely got my attention. They should be able to dominate in the trenches this week, but even if they don't, Walker's touchdown equity, favorable game script (11.5-point favorites), and sizeable role in the passing game give him a massive floor this week.

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Ashton Jeanty ($7,100 DK, $7,700 FD) 

Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints

I think this week sets up pretty nicely for Jeanty to have a bounce-back performance after he struggled to get it going in Week 2 against the Chargers. The Raiders are expecting Brock Bowers to return from injury (we think...stay tuned), which is only going to mean good things for everyone else on this offense, as Bowers is their most talented pass-catcher and a guy who can force defenses to respect the pass and not just load up against the run.

The Raiders check in with the fifth-best rating this week, but the one blemish on the chart is their run-blocking grade.  If we drill down a bit on those and look at the individual players from their O-line, we can see that rookie Kolton Miller is excelling as a pass-blocker, but has been only average as a run-blocker. But it's really been the center, free-agent acquisition Tyler Linderbaum, and both guards, Jackson Powers-Johnson and Spencer Buford, whose grades are lagging behind their usual marks.

Maybe we can chalk it up to the lack of experience playing together and having to adjust to a new blocking scheme under first-year Klint Kubiak, but they'll simply have to be better if Jeanty is going to have a big year in Las Vegas.

The good news is that Jeanty is (news flash) really good at evading tackles and getting yards after contact. So his talent has masked some of the O-line's deficiencies thus far. And his ability as a receiver has made him the focal part of this offense, as he's handled 29 and 25 touches in the Raiders' first two games this season.

This matchup appears to be pretty good on paper, but we should note that the Saints have had to face Derrick Henry and Jahmyr Gibbs in their first two games, too. They did slow down Derrick Henry in the second half last week, but as I noted earlier, I think they got bailed out a bit by Baltimore going away from him too early in that game, too.

One thing is certain, and it's that the Raiders will be feeding Jeanty the football as both a runner and receiver. They're 3-point road dogs in this game, which I think has some sneaky shootout appeal. I'm not sure he belongs in your cash game lineups, but Jeanty has a sizeable ceiling with his game-script-proof workload, talent, and improved offensive environment.

Chuba Hubbard ($6,100 DK, $6,700 FD)

Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns

This might be my favorite sneaky play on the slate...I am not sure why I am sharing it with all of you!

The reality is that this slate is loaded with good options at running back. Both Aaron Jones Sr. and Jaylen Warren are cheaper than Hubbard on both sites and have their respective backfields to themselves as well. I expect both of those backs to garner more rostership than Hubbard, who has the perceived tougher matchup against Cleveland on the road.

But that's why we have analytics! This actually is a better matchup in 2026 than it was in 2025...well, at least so far.

The Browns were a strong run defense last year, but have allowed over five yards per carry to both Bucky Irving and Bhayshul Tuten to start this season. Enter Hubbard, who has rushed the ball 22 times for 102 yards (4.6 YPC) through two games. He's also secured all five of his targets for 49 yards and two touchdowns as a receiver.

Only two games in, but analytics are glowing for Chuba Hubbard

He's currently second in the league in Yards After Contact per Touch, only behind Kenneth Walker https://t.co/fWINd49T5j

— Edgar Salmingo, Jr. ✌🏽 (@PanthersAnalyst) September 23, 2026

His workload was a bit lighter in those games because Jonathan Brooks was working in for 9 carries and three targets. But Brooks is on IR, and Hubbard is in line for more work this week. Trevor Etienne is out, too, leaving veteran plodder A.J. Dillon as Hubbard's only real competition for touches.

Dillon is a zero in the passing game, so Hubbard should see most, if not all, of the passing game work. I don't think Dillon is a threat to his touches around the goal line either, giving Hubbard a real chance at garnering all the high-value touches for this Carolina offense that has been surprisingly efficient through two weeks.

The price is nice, and the rostership should be low. It's a beautiful combo for tournaments!

Don't forget the cardinal rule for GPPs: "Be greedy when others are fearful!" Good luck and thanks for reading.

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