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Welcome to a Sunday edition of NBA picks here at RotoBaller. We have nine games on the slate tonight and a couple of very important Eastern Conference matchups. The New York Knicks will be hosting the Philadelphia 76ers, and the Orlando Magic will look to bounce back in a home spot against the Indiana Pacers. The late game on ESPN will feature Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves playing under the lights in Los Angeles against the Lakers. It should be a fun day of hoops!
I wanted to get an article out on Sunday because I've been hot lately. On Friday, I went 2-1 on my picks. The Knicks crushed the Magic, and the Pelicans held the Sixers under 106.5 points. I've been riding team total unders on teams that play the Pelicans, and I will continue that trend tonight. My one loss was the Atlanta Hawks failing to win the first quarter on the road in Memphis. Since the All-Star break, I'm 16-4 in my last 20 picks.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the NBA slate that tips off at 3:00 p.m. EST on Sunday, March 10. Follow me on X, @Jwiesel13.
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NBA Betting Picks: ML & Spreads
Indiana Pacers (+2.5) at Orlando Magic (229.5 total)
To my delight as a Knicks fan, the Knicks absolutely crushed Orlando on Friday night. It was a win the Knicks really needed and was one of my three picks in Friday's article. Most people would tell you to take the team that just got embarrassed, as they might have more urgency...especially at home. That's good reasoning, but I like the Pacers in the first quarter here.
Orlando fell behind 31-23 after the first quarter on Friday. The Magic aren't a high-scoring team, and they are in the bottom five in first-quarter scoring. At home, they shoot 49.1 percent on FGA's and 38.8 percent from three. They are also 17–12 ATS at home in the first quarter, while Indiana is only 12–18–2. There is just something drawing me to the Pacers. They had a down-to-the-wire loss against the Timberwolves on Thursday night.
Magic guard Jalen Suggs was a late scratch for the game Friday and is dealing with some kind of injury. His being out hurt the Magic on Friday, as Jalen Brunson scored ten points in the first quarter. Should Suggs lace it up tonight, he'll draw Tyrese Haliburton as his defensive assignment. Haliburton is a pain to guard when fully healthy, and even tougher when dealing with injuries. Magic guard Markelle Fultz also got hurt in Friday night's loss to the Knicks.
Orlando is excellent defensively, but I just saw them give up 31 to New York to start Friday's game. The Pacers are in the top ten for scoring in the first quarter on the road this season. They are also shooting nearly 50 percent from the floor and hitting over three three-pointers. Their defense can be suspect, but I'm relying on their offense in this spot.
Pascal Siakam WITH AUTHORITY 🤯 pic.twitter.com/pj73TMpORC
— Indiana Pacers (@Pacers) March 8, 2024
The Pick: Pacers First Quarter +0.5 (-110 FanDuel)
Houston Rockets (+6.5) at Sacramento Kings (230.5 total)
I like the Kings in the first half at home tonight against the Rockets. Houston comes into this game off of a 123-107 win in Portland on Friday night. The Rockets outscored Portland 68-44 in the second half after losing the first half 63-55. Losing the first half dropped Houston to an uninspiring 10-20-1 ATS on the road in the opening 24 minutes of games this season. Sacramento lost the opening half in both games they played against the Rockets in Houston earlier this season. De'Aaron Fox missed both games, so I find those games irrelevant.
The Kings are 16-12 ATS in the first half at home, and they are 4-1 in their last five. In those five games, Sacramento is averaging 64.2 points while hitting 53.6 percent of their field goals and over 42 percent from three. Domantas Sabonis and De'Aaron Fox have both been amazing lately. Sabonis is averaging 11.2 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 4.4 assists while hitting 64.1 percent of his shots. Fox is averaging 11 points, 4.8 assists, and 3.6 rebounds. Malik Monk (9 PPG) and Keegan Murray (8.6 PPG) help round out the King's top-four first-half performers.
Houston is about league average as a first-half defense in enemy territory. They are allowing 7.2 three-pointers, which places them in the bottom five. Sacramento has been a top-five first-half offense at home, and I think that continues tonight.
you already know 😏
Play of the Week presented by @golden1cu pic.twitter.com/LesCOgqsUq
— Sacramento Kings (@SacramentoKings) March 9, 2024
The Pick: Kings First Half -3.5 (-115 ESPN BET)
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NBA Betting Picks: Totals
New Orleans Pelicans (-8.5) at Atlanta Hawks (223.5 total)
The pick here for me is simple. I'm going to continue riding the wave of the Pelicans' defense and take the team total under on the Hawks. Last Tuesday, I took the under on the Raptors, and on Friday, I took the Sixers under. Both hit, and this Pelicans team is locked in right now on defense. I like that they've also done this on the road recently, so I'm not worried about some home-away defensive split.
In their last three games, New Orleans has held their opponents to 40.2 percent field goal shooting and 28.3 percent from three. The percentages are kind of crazy, given that they are allowing 92 FGAs and 37.7 attempted threes over this stretch. It shows an ability for New Orleans to be able to defend despite the volume of shots from the teams they are playing. Atlanta has won three games in a row, but we don't care about the outcome here, only the points.
In the seven games since Trae Young got hurt, the Hawks are averaging 108.4 points on 46.4 percent from the floor and 36.1 percent from three. They are getting to the line about 20 times per game, but I don't love to always analyze free throws because they can be very hit-or-miss based on game flow, referees, etc. To no one's surprise, losing Trae Young, who was averaging 26.4 points and 10.8 assists this season, has hurt the flow of Atlanta's offense. With Trae, the Hawks were averaging close to 120 points per game this season and leading the league in FGA's. Those numbers have significantly decreased.
It's not just a good three-game defensive stretch for the Pelicans. New Orleans is fourth in defensive rating on the road this season and does a great job limiting points in the paint and second-chance points. Hawks forward Jalen Johnson did not travel with the team to Memphis on Friday and is not playing again tonight. New Orleans is a tough draw for anyone right now, especially a team without Young and Johnson. Atlanta's team total under is 6-4 in their last ten games.
"Blocked Away by Zion!" pic.twitter.com/xB23dyzbKa
— New Orleans Pelicans (@PelicansNBA) March 9, 2024
The Pick: Hawks Team Total Under 107.5 (-106 FanDuel)
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