2020 Outfield Rankings - H2H Points Leagues

February 24, 2020

2020 fantasy baseball head-to-head points league rankings for outfielders. Our H2H staff rankings include OF tiers and analysis for points formats by Pierre Camus.

We've been breaking down rankings for points leagues over the last couple of weeks in order to prepare fantasy owners for draft day. To check out previous analysis articles by position, click the following links: first base, second base, third base, shortstop, catcher, starting pitcher, relief pitcher.

Outfield is obviously the deepest of all positions on offense, but you will see clearly delineated tiers throughout our rankings. You'll need to strike early to obtain some of the most valuable assets in the game, although points league drafts typically see starting pitchers enter the discussion among the top-five. Do you go with Gerrit Cole over Mookie Betts? Max Scherzer or Juan Soto? Landing a stud outfielder can set your lineup on a good path but sacrifice your choices at infield positions that lack the same depth. For that reason, we're breaking down each tier for every position in points leagues.

All preseason long, RotoBaller has you covered with the latest rankings for all fantasy baseball league types. Here we present our points league rankings for outfielders, put together by analysts Nicklaus Gaut, Riley Mrack, and Pierre Camus.

Outfield H2H Points League Rankings

In case you missed it, our very own "Big Pick Nick" Mariano was named the #1 overall most accurate industry expert ranker for the 2018 season!

Tier One

There's usually not much need to explain the first tier of players, as they are dominant in all categories and remain at the top of draft lists regardless of format. This time, there's one elephant in the rankings that requires some 'splainin'. I have Ronald Acuna at 17th overall, which makes him the fifth outfielder in my points-league rankings. Lemme 'splain.

I firmly believe Acuna should be the #1 pick in roto leagues and I've said as much on air (Youtube). This is a different format, though. Acuna's potential for 40 steals and 40 homers makes him a no-brainer in 5x5 leagues, but his .404 BB/K is far off from that of Yelich (.678 BB/K) and Trout (.917 BB/K). Both players would have outpaced Acuna far more in R+RBI if not for the 100+ AB deficit for each due to injury. The same argument holds water for Betts (.960 BB/K) and Bellinger (.880 BB/K), who now play in the same lineup and could boost each other's counting stats even more. Ultimately, his ranking is not a knock on Acuna in any way, it's just a matter of staying true to the axiom, "Know your league's settings."

Tier Two

My ranking of Aaron Judge is predicated on the idea that he'll see something close to 600 plate appearances, which he hasn't done the past two seasons. The Yankees are treating him with kid gloves this spring, which is a good thing. Projection systems aren't too concerned, as ATC has him slated for 39 HR, 93 RBI, and 103 R. Steamer is slightly more optimistic and projects him to be the 23rd-best player in points leagues. You would think his career 31.6% K% is a detriment in this format, but it's mostly offset by his 16.1% BB% and mammoth power. The main concern is health, which has to be considered.

Charles Cobb Blackmon is not an exciting early-round pick now that his speed has disappeared, but he's still an effective one. He was a top-50 player in points leagues last year and is projected to finish right around the same range, as high as 33 in CBS leagues. His .294 xBA ranked in the top 10% of the league last year and he even cut his strikeout rate by three points. If you're too skittish for Judge, wait a round and see if Blackmon is still around.

Tier Three

If you read Ariel Cohen's piece on "Finding Combo-Player Values" then you'd know that Austin Meadows is in an elite group that projects to have a Z-Score of 0.50 or more in all five offensive categories for roto leagues. That's great, but this is supposed to be points league analysis... Well, it stands to reason that if he is contributed well above league average in all areas that matter, he's going to be accumulating a lot of points too. His plate discipline isn't elite, but his 9.1% walk rate is one point above MLB average and his 22.2% strikeout rate is right in line with the rest of the league. He's only 24 and could take another step forward in 2020.

If there's one knock against Eddie Rosario, it's his pitiful 3.7% walk rate. Fortunately, he's dropped his strikeout rate accordingly for three straight years, down to 14.6% last year. His team context ensures that his production should maintain a high floor once more. If it looks like I'm down on him compared to Nick or Riley, it's nothing personal. You may notice many of the outfielders in this tier are a bit lower for me because of their relation to pitchers who I may have above them.

Tier Four

One outfielder I feel confident ranking around the 50th overall range is Michael Brantley. Steamer projections have him falling almost 20 spots this year, but there's no good reason to assume so. His HR/FB rate did jump by three points compared to the previous year but his barrel rate also increased by two points and it's not as if he saw a huge surge in homers, hitting five more in 2019 than 2018. Renowned for his plate discipline, he is one of the safest OF2 picks around.

Andrew Benintendi is a player I'm probably too high on, especially now that the Red Sox lineup has taken a hit with the loss of Betts. That does leave open the possibility that Benintendi bats leadoff, though. That circumstance could boost his run total and provide hope that he runs more, returning to the 20-steal mark. The talent is certainly there for him to surpass his career-best numbers from 2018. If he comes at a discount past the 80th pick in your draft, don't hesitate to pull the trigger.

Tier Five

Ah Joey Gallo, what do we do with you? If you're on a platform like ESPN that penalizes a full point for strikeouts, you leave him alone and let someone else take on that 38.4% K%. If you are in a Yahoo! league, which now doles out an extra half-point for homers and an extra point for R+RBI, you grab him much higher than his ADP and hope he stays healthy.

If you aren't a believer in Bryan Reynolds yet, watch MLB Network's Top 10 Left Fielders Right Now and see just how highly they think of him. Spoiler: he's third on the list, ahead of Austin Meadows, Giancarlo Stanton, and Tommy Pham. That's a debatable point but not one relevant to the fantasy world necessarily. Reynolds is a fantasy asset on the strength of his hit tool that produced a .314 average with a .296 xBA in his rookie season. He doesn't have a track record of big power and is rated at a 50 raw power, so there may not be more gains to come. The fact that the Pirates may be worse on offense after the trade of Starling Marte and no key free-agent additions on offense, unless you really want to count Jarrod Dyson, could be a concern. This is likely the reason Riley has him down 50 spots lower than Nick and me. A breakout doesn't seem imminent, but when you realize that he finished as the 135th-highest scoring player in composite points league rankings last year and is projected by ATC to produce comparable numbers with a slight uptick in counting stats to adjust for everyday playing time, a ranking around 110 seems pretty fair.

Tier Six and Lower

Adam Eaton isn't an exciting pick in roto, but he can be a sneaky source of points. Last year, he was among the league leaders in triples (seven) and HBP (13), along with 15 steals. A solid .279 average and .613 BB/K round out a solid profile.

Aristides Aquino could be the next Giancarlo Stanton or he could spend most of this year in the minors. There wasn't much middle ground with him between his August line of .320/14/33/22/2 and his September production of .196/5/14/9/7. A slugger with questionable playing time and a poor finish to last season would seem to be poison in points leagues. He very well could be, but there comes a point where he will be worth the risk as someone you can stream on a given week.

It would be easy enough for Kyle Tucker to get lost among the bevy of fantasy options in Houston. Nowadays, wondering whether budding young prospects are going to flourish is the last thing on the Astros' minds... If he can win a starting job over Josh Reddick, there is reason to think Tucker could be a steal in the latter half of fantasy drafts.

Although I'm a fan of baby Yaz, let's not forget former Giant Kevin Pillar. He signed with the Red Sox to fill a sizeable hole in the outfield and could be starting in center field while Alex Verdugo recovers from back issues. The initial reaction is to avoid Pillar in points formats based on his, wait is that possible, 2.8% walk rate??? He's never been one to be patient at the plate, but it's basically non-existent now as he chased 46.9% of balls outside the zone and swung at nearly 60% of all pitches he saw. That didn't prevent him from being the 90th point producer last season despite playing for a losing Giants club in a pitcher-friendly park.

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