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Thunder Dan Palyo's top NBA prop bets for 11/14/25: expert player-prop picks, value plays, quick model edges and line-shopping tips for today’s slate. Check odds & get the edge.
The NBA Emirates Cup action resumes tonight with nine games in the Association. These games matter more to some organizations than others, but we usually do see most teams make a concerted effort to put their best players out on the floor for these contests.
In fact, we will see the return of LaMelo Ball for the Charlotte Hornets, and Giannis Antetokounmpo is also set to return from a one-game absence in that game for the Bucks, too. We won't see the return of LeBron James, Bam Adebayo, Zion Williamson, or Kawhi Leonard, however, as they all remain out. Anthony Davis is questionable and could play for the first time in a few weeks for Dallas, while a few other big stars who are out tonight are Jalen Brunson of the Knicks and Paolo Banchero of the Magic.
In this article, I will provide my favorite NBA player props picks for Friday, November 14th. Prop picks can range from individual stats—points, assists, rebounds, three-pointers made, and defensive stats —to combination props (Points + Rebounds + Assists = PRA). All odds and sportsbooks used are listed as well, but always shop around, as those odds change throughout the day as bets come in. Let's get to the picks already. I loaded it up for tonight!
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Today’s Best NBA Prop Bets & Player Props
Early-season NBA player props offer bettors a prime opportunity to get ahead of oddsmakers by capitalizing on new trends, unexpected rotations, and shifts in play style from last season. With teams still settling into their identities, sharp bettors can often find mispriced lines before the markets adjust.
Let’s take a look at the top player props for today’s NBA slate:
- Nicolas Claxton over 24.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists
- Desmond Bane over 5.5 Assists
- OG Anunoby over 27.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists
- Jrue Holiday over 6.5 Assists
- Stephon Castle over 7.5 Assists
- Brandon Williams over 13.5 Points
- Andre Drummond over 21.5 Points and Rebounds
- Reed Sheppard over 9.5 Points
- Rui Hachimura over 12.5 Points
Nicolas Claxton over 24.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-120 DK)
The Nets are 14-point underdogs tonight in Orlando, so the only reason I'd consider fading this prop is if you think that Orlando runs away with this one early. However, the Magic won't have one of their better players as Paolo Banchero is out, and Brooklyn has been more competitive lately, other than a 36-point loss to the Knicks last week.
That game against the Knicks was the only game in the last seven games that Claxton did not eclipse the 25 PRA mark. He was on track to do so with 22 PRA in 22 minutes, but the starters were ultimately benched in the second half as things got ugly and out of hand.
Nic Claxton is getting really good at the decel on drives. He's drawn multiple and ones using it this season. pic.twitter.com/f0BtkOQbHU
— Erik Slater (@erikslater_) November 12, 2025
The Brooklyn offense runs through Claxton and Michael Porter Jr. right now. Claxton's scoring has been on the rise for the last two weeks, and he's been much more involved as a passer, too, with at least four assists in six of his last seven.
The matchup doesn't pop on paper, but Wendell Carter Jr. is an undersized center who is not known for his defense, and I don't think he's likely to slow down Claxton tonight.
Desmond Bane over 5.5 Assists (-111 DK)
Bane has taken some time to settle into his new digs in Orlando, but he's starting to look more like the player that we saw in Memphis. The Magic lack a true point guard in their starting unit, as Jalen Suggs is more of a combo guard and defensive-minded player, so Bane has begun to take over as the main facilitator on offense.
He has six or more assists in four straight games, and the likelihood of his recent assist surge only goes up when you factor in that Paolo Banchero (4.1 assists per game) is out tonight for this game. Suggs, Bane, and Franz Wagner should all soak up more usage, and I expect Bane to continue to initiate the offense most of the time.
Brooklyn's defense is terrible, so there should be plenty of potential assists available for Bane tonight.
OG Anunoby over 27.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-118 FD)
I mentioned in the intro that the Knicks will be without their leading scorer, Jalen Brunson, tonight. Their still 5.5-point favorites at home against the Miami Heat, who have been playing at a breakneck pace this season (fastest in the NBA) and are without their best defensive player, Bam Adebayo, once again.
A lot of people will automatically look to Karl-Anthony Towns as the guy who is most likely to soak up a lot of shots on offense tonight, but Brunson's 30% usage is likely to be spread out among his replacement, Miles McBride, and the other wings (Anuboy and Miles Bridges), too.
When we pull the data from last season, when Brunson missed 16 games, it was Anunoby who had arguably the biggest boost in production. He averaged 31 PRA in those games, going over 27.5 PRA 75% of the time. He's been in great form this season, and I expect him to have a big night as his game is perfect for this type of up-and-down style of play.
Jrue Holiday over 6.5 Assists (-117 DK)
Holiday had another master class of passing in his last game against the Pelicans. Jrue had zero assists at the half and then came out and racked up 12 in the second half to push his season average up to 8.5 on the year.
He now has seven assists or more in eight of 11 games this season and ranks fifth in the NBA with 14.7 potential assists per night.
I expect the Blazers to compete tonight against a good Rockets team, and for Holiday to continue to play big minutes and lead Portland. He's shown he can clear this mark with ease on a nightly basis and has enough weapons around him who can convert those assist opportunities for us to feel good about his chances even in a tougher matchup.
Stephon Castle over 7.5 Assists (-113 DK)
I am going to keep betting on this prop until it breaks! If you haven't been paying attention, Castle has continued to pile up huge assist totals for the Spurs even after De'Aaron Fox returned to the lineup. His run over the last five games is hard to ignore as he's averaged 11 assists per game in that stretch on 16.4 potential assists (third-most in the NBA).
Victor Wembanyama & Stephon Castle posted triple-doubles for the Spurs tonight!@wemby: 31 PTS, 15 REB, 10 AST@StephonCastle: 23 PTS, 10 REB, 10 AST
They become the first San Antonio duo to record triple-doubles in the same game 😱 pic.twitter.com/pqXYPiRtSJ
— NBA (@NBA) November 13, 2025
I know that the Spurs just played the Warriors on Wednesday, and we sometimes hesitate to go back to the same matchup twice in a row, but the Warriors' defense has been atrocious this season, and the Spurs are really clicking right now with Castle, Wemby, and Fox all in the lineup and a solid cast of role players around them.
Let's take advantage of the books being slow to adjust to Castle's emergence as one of the better young point guards in the league.
Top Value Props & Sleeper Picks
Betting on superstars is always exciting, but the best value often lies on the margins of a roster. Role players and emerging contributors can offer hidden edges, especially as the season wears on and injuries start to shake up rotations.
Let’s dive into some of the top value plays for today’s NBA slate.
Brandon Williams over 13.5 Points (-114 DK)
Williams has emerged as the starting point guard for the Mavericks, and only a few books even have a number out for him today, even though he's projected to start again and has been one of the few bright spots for a very disappointing Dallas team.
Whenever Williams has gotten minutes this season, he's produced. In the five games where he's played at least 22 minutes or more, he's averaging 16.2 points and has cleared his points prop four out of five times.
Even if Anthony Davis does return to the lineup tonight, the Mavericks badly need scoring from other positions on the floor and Williams has gained the trust of Jason Kidd over the veteran D'Angelo Russell for now. I love attacking low numbers with players on the rise, and that's exactly the recipe we have here with Williams in this spot.
Andre Drummond over 21.5 Points and Rebounds (-114 FD)
Joel Embiid remains out tonight, which should lead to another start for the veteran big man Drummond. This time, he will match up against his old team in Detroit, which has been dealing with a bunch of injuries of its own.
Whether Detroit center Jalen Duren plays or not, Drummond is a good bet to grab a double-double for the Sixers based on his recent performance as the starter and his per-minute rates.
In his last three starts, Drummond is averaging 14.3 points and 12.7 rebounds, which puts him at 27 PTS + REB and gives us a nice cushion for where his prop is listed today. I expect him to play a similar amount of minutes in the same role tonight.
Reed Sheppard over 9.5 Points (-130 FD)
After a bit of a lull in production, Sheppard is back in top form and emerging as a major scoring threat for Houston off the bench. The second-year guard is red-hot, knocking down 13 of his last 21 attempts from behind the arc (62%). He's been cruising over this point total in his last four games and has seen his minutes jump from the mid-teens to the mid-20s as a result.
Reed Sheppard over the last 3 games:
17.7 PPG
3.7 APG
2.3 SPG
64.5% FG
61.9% 3P
26.8 MPG https://t.co/gL8MpsjWy4 pic.twitter.com/QF7JlomVpI— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) November 13, 2025
I like this line at 10.5, too, at plus odds on some books, as Sheppard should continue to be a high-usage player with the second unit tonight. We have to love the volume of shots he's getting up recently (10+ in three straight), which should help us clear this bar even if he does cool off a little.
Rui Hachimura over 12.5 Points (-124 DK)
Hach has been a very consistent third (or even fourth) option on offense for the Lakers all season. He's cleared this number in nine of 12 games this season, and with the Lakers installed as pretty heavy road favorites against a very bad defensive team in New Orleans, I love his chances of doing it again.
Hach has been awesome from deep this season, hitting 50% of his threes and averaging two per game. It's a low bar to clear for an excellent shooter like Hach, who has two elite playmakers (Luka and Reaves) finding him for open shots on a nightly basis.
NBA Betting Tools & Resources
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Thanks for reading, RotoBallers, and good luck if you are tailing our bets tonight!
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