RADIO
Time to Mash
Let's start this article with a disclaimer: predicting batting average is something of a fool's errand. In a nutshell, the problem boils down to sample size. Barring injury, an everyday player will step up to the plate somewhere between 650 and 700 times over the course of a season. Between 60 and 100 of these opportunities are lost to walks, sac flies, sac bunts, and HBP, leaving only about 600 remaining. In a sport with as much in-house randomness as baseball, that sample makes exact predictions rather difficult.
Think about it this way: in standard leagues your average fantasy starter is probably around a .260 hitter. Over the course of a full season, how many hits separate that player and a .300 hitter? Give up? The answer is 24, or just one extra hit every 6.75 games. Think back on all the broken bat singles or weakly hit bloopers to the outfield you've watched. Have more than a handful of these fall your way in the same season and...well you can see how someone like Chris Johnson can contend for a batting title.
Now this doesn't mean that we don't know anything about batting average. Projecting individual end-of-year finishes might be a bit of a gamble, but as any good poker player will tell you, there's more to gambling than just luck. There are a few skills most batting average studs have in common, especially those who are consistent contributors in the category. Namely, players with a good hit tool exhibit a moderate-to-low strikeout rate, a moderate-to-high line drive rate, (sometimes) good foot speed, good bat speed, and a good sense of the strike zone. Search out players with these skills and you can at least stack the deck in your favor on draft day. With these traits in mind, I've listed 10 hitters who I believe are good bets to finish atop the end-of-year standings with respect to batting average.
Tier One Hitters
Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Andrew McCutchen, Troy Tulowitzki
Here we have your “safe” batting title contenders. Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Andrew McCutchen, and Troy Tulowitzki all hit above .300 in 2014 and have strong track records from prior years demonstrating their ability to do so on a continual basis. The underlying stats are there as well. Martinez might be the freak of the group when it comes to strikeout rate, but all four have demonstrated the ability to limit wasted at-bats while simultaneously maximizing line drives. Considering his injury history, Tulo might be the worst of the bunch. Barring some truly terrible luck, it'd be hard to see any of these hitters dip below .300 any time soon.
Tier Two Hitters
Mike Trout, Joey Votto, Jose Altuve
Each of these hitters could easily lead the league in batting average, but a flaw in their approach makes them more risky than my Tier One group. With Mike Trout it boils down to strikeout rate. Unless he shows the ability to get that 26.1% strikeout rate down to 19-22% range of his first two seasons, .300 may prove elusive.
Jose Altuve is something of a different beast in this regard. Unlike Trout, Altuve's strikeout rate last year was one of the best in the league. While I'd be surprised to see him replicate that 7.5% finish, his performance in this category demonstrates a real improvement in his game. Whether that improvement will be sufficient to maintain a .300 average when his BABIP comes back down to earth is still unknown, however. For now, this limits him to the Tier Two group.
Finally, there is the matter of Joey Votto. If I knew Votto's legs were 100% healthy, he'd be firmly fixed among my Tier One players. A healthy Votto is as good a hitter as anyone in the game. His Tier Two status is more of a nod to the still unanswered questions regarding his long-term health, rather than any concern about his underlying talent. We'll just have to wait for the regular season to see.
Tier Three Hitters
Adrian Beltre, Buster Posey, Robinson Cano
Adrian Beltre will be 36 years old next season. There's no question he's been amazing up until now, but eventually that other shoe is going to drop and the Rangers legend will start to show his age. When that happens is just a matter of time.
Rounding out the bottom of my list are Buster Posey and Robinson Cano. With respect to their underlying fundamentals, they're actually rather similar hitters. As the non-catcher, Cano is probably the safer bet, but the difference between these two players isn't very large at all. Both are great hitters, but their expected ceiling just isn't as high as your McCutchen's or Altuve's of the world.
Honorable Mention: Jose Abreu
