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Austin Swaim's UFC DFS lineups picks for UFC Vegas 121 - Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos. Top MMA fighter picks this week include Yazmin Jauregui, Luis Hernandez, Rodolfo Bellato, Raoni Barcelos, and Ricky Simon.
Every week, DraftKings Daily Fantasy offers MMA contests featuring the full UFC fight card. The DFS slate for UFC Vegas 121: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos locks Saturday at 5 p.m. EST on Paramount+.
Saturday's main event is a ranked bantamweight battle as 21-year-old Raul Rosas Jr. from Mexico headlines his first card against a Brazilian grappling stalwart in the division, Raoni Barcelos.
Here is a full breakdown of my favorite picks on the card in each pricing tier.
UFC Vegas 121 DraftKings DFS Studs to Target
Yazmin Jauregui ($9,800)
When I get the biggest favorite on the card at contrarian popularity, I'm extremely interested.
Yazmin Jauregui's fight is -165 to go the full 15 minutes, and she doesn't wrestle at all, so there's definitely scoring risk. Plus, the Mexican prospect has been finished twice in the UFC and hasn't fought since 2024. All of these red flags seem like an issue, right?
Well, 37-year-old Vanessa Demopolous will quickly cure some issues. Demopolous' -2.02 striking success rate (SSR) in over 140 octagon minutes is terrible -- and likely a product of the division's second-shortest reach (59").
Jauregui peppers opponents with 17.03 significant strikes per minute, and the veteran's 41% striking defense is awful. UFC has largely kept Demopolous away from these types of matchups, but she's out of other opponents to face.
I've got the favorite projected for 90.4 significant strikes. That, plus a late finish, could definitely work at a draft percentage around 21.1%, per RotoBaller's MMA optimizer.
Mehemmedeli Osmanli ($9,100)
The sky seems like the limit for "The Ultimate Fighter" finalist Mehemmedeli Osmanli.
The 21-year-old from Azerbaijan secured two submissions on the reality show to earn his spot in this finale against Ilimbek Akylbek. He's an in-and-out, fluid striker with quality defense and that lethal tendency to take the back, but he also proved he doesn't need it to find a choke:
THE REAL DEAL 🤯
Mehemmedeli Osmanli locks in the BUGGY CHOKE for the impressive RD2 submission victory to move on to the #TUF34 finale!
STREAM NOW on @ParamountPlus! pic.twitter.com/X9dtV81cnV
— UFC (@ufc) August 26, 2026
Akylbek is a grinder who will wrestle like heck, but he had his back taken in a quarterfinal bout against Sean Mora, but survived. He was finished twice in his time with ONE Championship against inferior competition. Effort doesn't help avoid positional mistakes.
On a card with shaky favorites, including the other two I like in this tier, I have no interest in fading the surging phenom.
Luis Hernandez ($9,000)
Well, this matchmaking is bananas.
Just 11 days ago, Luis Hernandez, a Miami-Dade County police officer, earned his contract on Dana White's Contender Series (DWCS). With Sedriques Dumas' opponent pulling out, he's stepped into this light heavyweight matchup on Wednesday.
All anyone can talk about here is that Dumas also has an extensive criminal history...in Florida, where Hernandez works with law enforcement. We live in the matrix, man.
Hernandez has star qualities, even if his upside, as a 5'9" fighter in this larger weight class, isn't great. He landed 11.14 significant strikes per minute on DWCS in an all-action brawl and showed off his submission skills to find a tapout in Round 2.
Above all, his resolve and willingness to push through adversity are something that Dumas has failed to show over and over. The latter has actually failed to see a seventh minute in four straight fights.
UFC Vegas 121 DraftKings DFS Mid-Tier Picks
Rodolfo Bellato ($8,600)
This is not the most glamorous UFC card of all time, and Christian Edwards might embody that.
He was pulled in on short notice to fight Modestas Bukauskas in May, and after that predictable setback, he's now lost 5 of his last 8 fights against poor competition. It's hard to even find an argument to justify his roster spot.
Rodolfo Bellato (-0.49 SSR) isn't always the most reliable commodity, but he's a UFC-level fighter. He proved that in March with a knockout of Luke Fernandez, and his 15-minute loss to Navajo Stirling has aged like wine.
If things are going the Brazilian's way, he's a finisher. 12 of his 13 pro wins have come via stoppage. I definitely want a slice of that in DFS.
Ailin Perez ($8,300)
It's about time that Ailin Perez's fight with Norma Dumont got bumped to the co-main event on Wednesday. There's bad blood in this matchup for a top-five ranking at women's bantamweight.
Perez, riding a six-fight winning streak, is the slight favorite, and it's not like she's untested during it. The Argentinian has turned back ranked contenders like Joselyne Edwards, Karol Rosa, Macy Chiasson, and Daria Zhelezniakova, tapping Zhelezniakova in September 2024:
AILIN PEREZ GETS THE SUBMISSION WIN IN ROUND ONE 🔒 #UFCParis pic.twitter.com/f0J3u2ZU0e
— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) September 28, 2024
Her style is extremely friendly in DraftKings' scoring system, too. Despite just one finish, she's posted at least 76 DraftKings fantasy points (DKPTs) in all of these wins.
Dumont was taken down six times by Chiasson in a 2022 bout, so I think "Fiona" can implement her game and walk away with a win.
Robert Bryczek ($7,800)
I usually live in this high-$7,000 range, but it's pretty unappealing this week, as I pick both Perez and Josiah Harrell to dominate with their wrestling.
Robert Bryczek isn't my favorite, but he certainly works in a pinch. The Polish boxer's upside for a knockout is obvious as he faces 36-year-old Rodolfo Vieira, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist who has dropped three of his last four bouts. He's +225 to find a (T)KO at DraftKings Sportsbook.
But Vieira has been dropped just twice in 491 significant strikes absorbed. He's pretty durable, which has me worried that both fighters have a limited ceiling in DFS since Vieira (22% takedown accuracy) is a poor wrestler.
My model has this fight at 41.0% likely to go the full distance, so I'll have exposure to Bryczek in case he lands a knockout, but I'll be underweight in tournaments.
UFC Vegas 121 DraftKings Underdog Plays
Raoni Barcelos ($7,500)
My model has the main event at 58.0% likely to go all 15 minutes, so a fight stack is very much on the table. I just have a hard time not clicking Raoni Barcelos' half of it.
The Brazilian has won five in a row, turning back Payton Talbott, a current top-10 fighter, last January. He's already pulled off the harder upset of a prospect than Rosas, whose +0.10 SSR comes with a largely impotent striking attack.
I can't state enough how much of a step up in competition this is for the Mexican favorite. His six UFC wins are over opponents with a combined 21-33 record in the promotion, and their average takedown defense was 51%. Barcelos, an 11-4 UFC veteran, has an elite 87% takedown defense.
Personally, I think you're banking on the underdog to have gotten really old, really quickly, to expect him to lose to Rosas Jr. in any area of this bout.
Ricky Simon ($7,400)
I will always take a wrestler in a longer fight at or below $7,500, but don't sleep on Ricky Simon's chances to find a finish.
Don't put much stock in a 2018 win for Simon over Montel Jackson, his opponent this weekend, where he landed six takedowns in a unanimous decision. They're both completely different fighters, but the same dynamic may still play out.
Jackson's takedown D (67%) is paramount in this matchup. He's given up 11 takedowns in his last three bouts, and Simon attempts 10.95 takedowns per 15 minutes.
But Simon quietly has a 0.72% knockdown rate, which is solid power for the division, and he's faced better boxers like Adrian Yanez and Vinicius Oliveira of late.
Ricky Simon has that knockout POWER 😳💥#UFCVegas121 | Saturday | Stream TNT Sports on HBO Max pic.twitter.com/rKPrtj8fJX
— UFC on TNT Sports (@ufcontnt) September 25, 2026
Above all, I'm just fading Jackson in DFS. He has knockout upside, but he's so low volume (3.02 significant strikes per minute landed) that he absolutely needs that to score in fantasy when I know he's not wrestling here.
Alatengheili ($7,000)
It's a similar story to the Simon fight for Alatengheili in the same division, men's bantamweight, against John Castaneda.
My model has Castaneda at 30.0% likely to find a knockout, but without it, we're likely looking at a grimy decision where the underdog wrestles. DraftKings Sportsbook is even more confident about this fight going the distance (-275), though.
Alatengheili attempts 4.07 takedowns per 15 minutes, landing a higher percentage of them (43%) than Castaneda (37%). Both fighters have an identical 75% takedown defense.
Plus, Castaneda needed to shave his head to make the bantamweight limit on Friday, indicating his weight cut in what could be a grueling fight didn't go particularly smoothly.
Stunningly, I've got "The Mongolian Knight" at 30.1% likely to win a decision, compared to 29.2% for Castaneda. I think you're holding your breath to roster the American if he's unable to find a seminal blow early.
