Diamonds in the Pen - Deep Reliever Draft Targets

March 19, 2021

Michael Grennell identifies relief pitchers to target in deeper leagues for 2021 fantasy baseball drafts. These RP could help with holds or SV+HLD leagues and are valuable setup men.

When it comes to building a pitching staff in fantasy, most managers focus solely on starting pitchers and closers. And that makes sense. In standard scoring, those pitchers are the ones who are going to make the greatest contributions to wins, strikeouts and saves. A guy that comes in and tosses a scoreless frame in the seventh inning of a game can help out a bit with ERA and WHIP, and maybe add a couple strikeouts, but that's about the best you can expect from him on a daily basis.

But what if you are in a deeper league with large rosters? Or what if your league counts saves-plus-holds as a category? Or maybe you've decided this year to punt on starting pitching and use that draft capital to build up a dominant offense and a build a pitching staff of closers and relievers? Whatever your reasons may be, you're going to be looking for the best bang for your buck in the bullpen.

For the purposes of this list, we're not going to look at any of the projected closers since they will be draft day targets to begin with. Instead, we're going to look at some middle-innings guys that will either provide value in strikeouts, ERA, WHIP and have a shot at picking up some saves along the way. So let's dive in.

Devin Williams, MIL (ADP: 156)

2020 stats: 22 G, 27.0 IP, 4-1, 0.33 ERA, 0.63 WHIP, 17.67 K/9

It's no surprise that Williams is one of the highest non-closer relievers being drafted now after his insane 2020 season that saw him win the NL Rookie of the Year Award and finish seventh in the Cy Young race. Obviously, the strikeouts were a big deal for Williams, posting a 53 percent strikeout rate and a 22.3 percent swinging strike rate — the highest in the majors among pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched — but part of his success also came from his ability to induce groundballs. Opponents averaged a 2.4 degree launch angle against Williams, as he posted a 61.1 percent ground ball rate.

It will be hard to match these numbers in 2021, but Williams should still be one of the top bullpen targets for fantasy managers, as he can be a solid contributor to strikeouts, ERA and WHIP and he should be able to pick up a handful of saves along the way.

Trevor May, NYM (ADP: 482)

2020 stats: 24 G, 23.1 IP, 1-0, 2 SV, 3.86 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 14.66 K/9

After spending the first six years of his career with Minnesota, May is switching leagues in 2021 as he joins the Mets bullpen. He comes off a 2020 campaign in which he posted a career-high 39.6 percent strikeout rate along with a 7.3 percent walk rate — the third-lowest rate of his career. While he posted a 3.86 ERA, his FIP (3.62), xFIP (2.74) and SIERA (2.38) all suggest he pitched better than his numbers showed.

The only concern to keep an eye on is batters were making a lot of hard contact off May this season. He set career highs across the board in Statcast categories, with a 91.1 mph average exit velocity, 23.7 degree launch angle, 11.8 percent barrel rate and 39.2 percent hard-hit rate. But if you're willing to bet that those numbers were a fluke from a shortened season, May should be a solid add to provide strikeouts and a decent-to-good ERA and WHIP, and he should also be among the first in line for the closer role if Edwin Diaz goes down.

A.J. Minter, ATL (ADP: 577)

2020 stats: 22 G, 21.2 IP, 1-1, 0.83 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 9.97 K/9

Coming off the worst year of his career in 2019, Minter bounced back this year with a career-best 0.83 ERA and 0.42 HR/9, while his 28.2 percent strikeout rate and 1.11 WHIP were his best marks since his debut in 2017. And unlike May, batters struggled to make solid contact against Minter this year as his 84.5 mph average exit velocity, 9.4 degree launch angle, 3.8 percent barrel rate and 23.1 percent hard-hit rate were all the best marks of his four-year career. The walk rate was down from 2019, but it was still a bit high at 10.6 percent, and his 92.9 percent left-on-base rate does suggest some regression come 2021.

Based on his FIP and xFIP for last season managers should probably expect Minter to have an ERA closer to around 3.00 to 3.20, but he'll still be a solid source of strikeouts, and with his prior history of closing for Atlanta, he should be one of the first to get save opportunities if anything happens to the current projected closer Chris Martin.

Kyle Zimmer, KC (ADP: 695)

2020 stats: 16 G, 1 GS, 23.0 IP, 1-0, 1.57 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 10.17 K/9

Zimmer is the first guy on this list that could be used as a potential spot starter at some point this year. He was used as primarily a starter during his first few seasons in the minors, but since 2017 he's been used more in a middle-relief, spot-start role. He bounced back from a rough debut season in 2019 to post a 1.57 ERA and 28.6 percent strikeout rate this season, while lowering his launch angle to 9.9 degrees, barrel rate to 5.6 percent and hard-hit rate to 29.6 percent. Advanced metrics suggest his ERA should have been a little higher — closer to about 2.80-3.00 — but the strikeouts are legitimate as he has been a high-strikeout guy throughout his career in the minors. Managers should look to roster Zimmer if they're looking to shore up in strikeouts and ERA, and potentially benefit from a handful of starts if injuries hit the Kansas City rotation.

J.B. Wendelken, OAK (ADP: 584)

2020 stats: 21 G, 25.0 IP, 1-1, 1.80 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 11.16 K/9

Here's yet another reliever coming off a career-year in 2020. Wendelken's 1.80 ERA was the second-lowest of his career, while his 11.16 K/9 was his highest rate ever. Part of his success came from getting more groundballs, as his 14.7 degree launch angle was the second-lowest of his career which led to a career-best 46 percent groundball rate.

While the strikeouts and ERA did look nice, there are some concerns to be aware of going forward. Wendelken's FIP (3.07), xFIP (3.96) and SIERA (3.67) suggest he was getting a bit lucky at times, and he also saw his walk-rate bounce from a career-low 6.9 percent in 2019 to 10.4 percent this year. All that being said, Wendelken should still be a solid reliever to target in deeper formats, and he could be in a position to fight for some saves if Jake Diekman were to go down.

John Gant, STL (ADP: 707)

2020 stats: 17 G, 15.0 IP, 0-3, 2.40 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 10.80 K/9

A former starter who has pitched solely out of the bullpen the last two seasons, Gant has thrived in his middle-relief role for St. Louis. This year he posted a 29.5 percent strikeout rate and 12.9 percent swinging strike rate — both new career-highs — and while still a bit higher than fantasy managers would like, Gant lowered his walk rate to 11.5 percent — his lowest mark since 2016. Batters were making hard contact at a higher clip this season, as Gant posted a career-high 47.2 percent hard-hit rate, but his 5.1 degree launch angle was the lowest of his career and led to a career-high 62.9 percent groundball rate. That's all well and good, but these numbers should be taken with a grain of salt as Gant is the only pitcher on this list to not throw at least 20 innings in 2020.

Keep some skepticism of some of these numbers, but you can continue to have faith in his strikeout potential. It's unlikely that he would get more than a couple saves this year in a crowded Cardinals bullpen, but he should be in a good position to help out with wins (11 wins in 2019 as a reliever) and if your league counts it he can also be a good contributor in holds (18 in 2019, 5 in 2020).

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