NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, SuperDraft (3/29): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

March 29, 2021

Jorge Pucks delivers his top DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft NHL DFS value plays and research for March 29th including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays, stacks.

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft for Monday, March 29th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/29

• • New York Islanders (-110) vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (-110) - 5.5U
  • Philadelphia Flyers (-190) vs. Buffalo Sabres  - 6U
  • Edmonton Oilers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (-155) - 6.5U
  • Anaheim Ducks vs. Colorado Avalanche (-313) - 5.5O
  • Winnipeg Jets vs. Calgary Flames (-120) - 5.5O
  • Los Angeles Kings vs. Vegas Golden Knights (-210) - 5.5U
  • Minnesota Wild (-160) vs. San Jose Sharks- 5.5O

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium NHL DFS subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Jorge by using promo code JORGEPUCKS when purchasing an NHL DFS Premium Pass. You get 10% off, and exclusive access to all of our Premium NHL cheat sheets, DFS research tools, Premium Slack Chatrooms, Stack Builder, Correlation Matrix and Lineup Optimizer!

NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

• Connor McDavid, EDM ($9,200 DK / $9,300 FD) - There is no one else that I would want to spend up for than Connor McDavid at this point in time. He is on fire as he has recorded at least two points in each of his last four games and has four goals in that same four-game span. McDavid has been extremely successful in this matchup against Toronto as he has scored three goals and recorded six assists in eight games against the Maple Leafs this year.
• James McCann, PIT ($3,900 DK/ $3,700) - McCann is really taking on more of the offensive load while Malkin is out and he has been a big-time value as of late on both sites. McCann has generated five points over his last three games played while having back-to-back two-point outings. McCann has recorded one goal and two assists against the Islanders so far this season and will continue to have opportunities as he is seeing increased ice time by skating on the top power-play unit while also centering the second line for Pittsburgh.

Other centers to consider: 

• High Priced- MacKinnon, Crosby, Scheifele, Couturier
• Mid-Tier- Kadri, Couture, Hertl, Karlsson, Dubois, Stephenson, Eriksson Ek
• Value- Hartman, Lowry, Kerfoot

NHL DFS Forward Picks

• Leon Draisaitl, EDM ($8,400 DK / $8,200 FD) - Draisaitl is another Edmonton player that is in play yet again on this slate. While he might be tough to fit into your cash game lineups if you pay up for McDavid, he could be a good one-off play should you opt to not roll with McDavid in cash games. Draisaitl has scored five goals and recorded five assists in just eight games against Toronto this year while taking 24 total shots in those eight games. Draisaitl has netted a goal in back-to-back games and has scored double-digit DK points in eight of his last 10 games played.
• Anthony Beauvillier, NYI ($3,900 DK / $4,000 FD) - Beauvillier is on a little bit of a hot streak as he has scored a goal in four straight games. On the season, Beauvillier has scored six total goals so he has scored 66% of his goals on the year within the last week. One thing that definitely helps and gives Beauvillier a bump has been the fact that he is skating on the top power-play unit for the Islanders and has additional point-making opportunities skating alongside Jordan Eberle and Matt Barzal.

Other wings to consider: 

• High Priced- Pacioretty,  Rantanen, Guentzel, Stone, Connor
• Mid-Tier- Wheeler, Tkachuk, Fiala, Tuch, Meier, Hall, Eberle, Copp
• Value- Saad, Simmonds, Bailey, Bjugstad, Donato

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

• Darnell Nurse, EDM ($6,000 DK / $6,500 FD) - From a consistency standpoint, there aren't many defensemen that fill up the stat sheet on a nightly basis like Darnell Nurse. Nurse has generated 26 points in 35 games this season and has been very sharp as of late as he has generated six points over his last four games played. In eight games against Toronto, Nurse has only generated three points but has really stood out from the peripheral standpoint as he has 24 shots on goals and 12 blocked shots in those eight games,
• Ryan Pulock, NYI ($4,600 DK / $4,200 FD) - Pulock is coming off of a monster peripheral performance against the Penguins on Saturday night as he recorded seven shots on goal while blocking three shots as well. Pulock is still searching for his first goal of the season but sees such a solid amount of ice time that he can rack up points on assists and peripheral stats alone. Pulock has recorded two assists in seven games against Pittsburgh but has also taken 18 shots on goal while also blocking 12 shots in those seven games as well.

Other defensemen to consider: 

• High Priced- Theodore, Letang, Barrie, Burns, Gostisbehere
• Mid-Tier- Rielly, Makar, Pionk, Muzzin, Brodin, Karlsson
• Value- Hague, Suter, Hanifan, Ferraro, Dobson, Fowler

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

• Philipp Grubauer, COL ($8,500 DK / $8,100 FD) - The Ducks are on a bit of a hot streak as they went into St. Louis and took two wins away from the Blues and now get a tough challenge against the Avalanche. Grubauer is likely to get the start in net for Colorado and he is having a solid season as he is 20-7-1 with a 1.73 goals allowed average and a .930 save percentage. Grubauer has been successful against the Ducks this year as he is 3-1 with a 1.62 goals allowed average and a .937 save percentage. While Grubauer is priced up on both sites, he is the preferred top option in all formats.
• Connor Hellebuyck, WPG ($7,700 DK / $8,500 FD) - Hellebuyck looks to be a much better play over on DK rather than on FD. He is the highest-priced goalie on FD while he is in the middle-tier of pricing over on DK. Hellebuyck has won his last three starts and has only allowed six total goals over his last four starts. Heis 3-1-4 against the Flames this season but has kept them limited offensively as he has accrued a 2.37 goals allowed average and a .910 save percentage in five total starts against them.

Other goalies to consider: 

• High Priced- Hart
• Mid-Tier- Smith
• Value- Peterssen, Jones

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them incase he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks 

• EDM 1
  • Draisaitl/ McDavid/ Puljujarvi (Barrie, d-men add on)
    • The top line for Edmonton had a strong outing against Toronto on Saturday night as they saw 16 minutes of ice time at 5V5 and recorded two goals while generating five scoring chances and one high-danger chance. This line saw a good chunk of time against the Matthews line and we should expect a similar type of line match for tonight's game. On the season, this line is sporting a 4.27 expected goals for rate while generating 42.72 scoring chances for and 10.36 high danger chances for per 60 minutes of ice time. They are one of the most expensive lines to pay up for but if they generate a few goals, they can hit value.
• VGK 1  
  • Pacioretty/ Stephenson/ Stone (Theodore, d-men add on) 
    • The top line for the Golden Knights has been quite successful against the Kings this year. In 32 minutes of ice time, their top line has scored five goals while generating 29 scoring chances and nine high-danger chances against Los Angeles. On the season, this top line at home has been very good as they have a 3.03 expected goals for rate per 60 while generating 33.63 scoring chances for and 12.67 high danger chances for per 60 minutes of ice time.
• WPG 2  
  • Connor/ Dubois/ Ehlers (Pionk, d-men add on) 
    • A lot of attention could go towards the top line of Winnipeg but their second line could be a good lower owned line to consider rostering on this slate. In 21 minutes of ice time together against Calgary, this line has scored one goal and generated 10 scoring chances and five high danger opportunities. On the season, this line is generating a 2.65 expected goals for rate while generating 27.38 scoring chances for and 13.69 high danger chances for per 60 minutes of ice time. While all three guys skate at full strength together, Connor sees time on the top power-play unit while Dubois and Ehlers skate together on the second power-play unit which allows you to get some correlation with the top line should they score and Connor be skating with them on the top power-play unit.

Other Stacks to consider: COL 1, CGY1, SJS 1, VGK 2, TOR 2, SJS 2, PIT 2

SuperDraft NHL DFS Picks

C: MacKinnon (1.25X), Scheifele (1.4X), Couture (1.5X)

W: Pacioretty (1.3X), Lindholm (1.55X), Rantanen (1.6X)

D: Nurse (1.25X), Martinez (1.45X), Barrie (1.75X),

G: Hart (1.1X), Grubauer (1.2X), Jarry (1.5X)

*Core 4 for SuperDraft are Bolded

Key Abbreviations:

xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time

GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time

SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time

If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!

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