RADIO
Jorge Pucks delivers his top DraftKings, FanDuel NHL DFS value plays and research for May 29th including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays, stacks.
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season has now entered the postseason which is the most exciting time to watch and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together.
In the image above, you'll see that Sidney Crosby is skating in-between Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust and this line has skated together for most of the year. The idea behind staking forward lines is that if Crosby gets a goal, there is a higher percentage and chance that either Rust or Guentzel would get credited with an assist, therefore, resulting in more fantasy points.
The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play on that site just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Saturday, May 29th, 2020 at 7:30 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 5/29
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- Toronto Maple Leafs (-170) vs. Montreal Canadiens - 5.5U
- New York Islanders vs. Boston Bruins (-160) - 5O
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
NHL DFS Power Play Matrix
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium NHL DFS subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Jorge by using the promo code JORGEPUCKS when purchasing an NHL DFS Premium Pass. You get 10% off, and exclusive access to all of our Premium NHL cheat sheets, DFS research tools, Premium Slack Chatrooms, Stack Builder, Correlation Matrix, and Lineup Optimizer!
NHL DFS Core Plays
The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).
When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give a preferred play (varies on slate size) at each position and then other options at different price points so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.
NHL DFS Center Picks
- Mathew Barzal, NYI ($5,900 DK / $6,300 FD) - While this looks to be a tough matchup for Barzal and the Islanders, he has found some success against them this season. He has scored three goals and notched four assists in eight total games played and should come in at lower ownership in tournament contests due to the fact that Boston will be a tough team on home ice and the line matching might not be in his favor. He is a riskier option for cash game lineups due to his lower overall fantasy floor but could be the type of play that could help you get past the herd in gpps.
Other centers to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- Matthews, Bergeron
- Mid-Tier- Nelson, Krejci
- Value- Kerfoot, Pageau, Thornton
NHL DFS Forward Picks
- David Pastrnak, BOS ($7,400 DK / $7,700 FD) - Pastrnak has one of the best floors and ceilings out of all skaters on this slate and he has recorded four total points over his last three games played specifically against the Islanders. His price point is a tad down on both sites which makes an even more attractive play especially considering that he has hit double-digit DK points in five straight games.
Other wings to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- Marner, Marchand
- Mid-Tier- Nylander, Hall, Beauvillier, Gallagher
- Value- Eberle, Smith, Ritchie, Tatar
NHL DFS Defenseman Picks
- Morgan Rielly, TOR ($5,100 DK / $5,700 FD) - Rostering Morgan Rielly could be your way of getting some Toronto exposure if you decide to not spend up for Auston Matthews. Rielly is averaging four peripheral stats per game throughout the playoffs so far while also recording three points in five playoff games against the Canadiens.
Other defensemen to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- Petry, McAvoy
- Mid-Tier- Pulock, Muzzin, Grzelcyk
- Value- Chiarot, Reilly, Brodie, Holl
NHL DFS Goalie Picks
- Jack Campbell, TOR ($7,800 DK / $8,500 FD) - Campbell has won both starts on the road against Montreal and could offer the most upside on the slate from a shutout standpoint and potentially save standpoint. He has seen 30+ save attempts in three out of the five games so far in this series and has only allowed one goal on the road during these playoffs.
Other goalies to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- Rask
- Mid-Tier-
- Value- Sorokin
Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them in case he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!
Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks
- BOS 1
- Marchand/ Bergeron/ Pastrnak (, D-men add on)
- The top spend up line will be BOS 1 and they will carry heavy ownership but they should not be faded for that reason. Boston will have the home-ice advantage and we can expect the Bergeron line to get some favorable matchups against the depth lines of the Islanders. In 77 minutes of ice time against the Islanders, this top line was able to score four 5v5 goals while generating 33 scoring chances for and 10 high-danger chances per 60 minutes of ice time.
- Marchand/ Bergeron/ Pastrnak (, D-men add on)
Other Stacks to consider in order of preference: TOR 1, NYI 1, NYI 2, TOR 2
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
