RADIO
Jorge Pucks delivers his top DraftKings, FanDuel NHL DFS value plays and research for May 23rd including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays, stacks.
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season has now entered the postseason which is the most exciting time to watch and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together.
In the image above, you'll see that Sidney Crosby is skating in-between Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust and this line has skated together for most of the year. The idea behind staking forward lines is that if Crosby gets a goal, there is a higher percentage and chance that either Rust or Guentzel would get credited with an assist, therefore, resulting in more fantasy points.
The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play on that site just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Sunday, May 23rd, 2020 at 5:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 5/23
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- Carolina Hurricanes (-135) vs. Nashville Predators - 5.5U
- Colorado Avalanche (-220) vs. St. Louis Blues - 5.5O
- Boston Bruins (-135) vs. Washington Capitals - 5.5U
- Edmonton Oilers (-120) vs. Winnipeg Jets - 5.5U
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
NHL DFS Power Play Matrix
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium NHL DFS subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Jorge by using the promo code JORGEPUCKS when purchasing an NHL DFS Premium Pass. You get 10% off, and exclusive access to all of our Premium NHL cheat sheets, DFS research tools, Premium Slack Chatrooms, Stack Builder, Correlation Matrix, and Lineup Optimizer!
NHL DFS Core Plays
The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).
When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give a preferred play (varies on slate size) at each position and then other options at different price points so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.
*The main slate for Sunday will only be a three-game slate (excluding CAR/NSH) so that is what this writeup will focus on.
NHL DFS Center Picks
- Connor McDavid, EDM ($9,200 DK / $8,600 FD) - McDavid has now gone pointless in back-to-back games and has also hasn't scored a goal in over four games but he is certainly due for a multi-point outing here really soon. McDavid has fared well against the Jets this season as he has 22 points in 11 games played so he should be someone to keep trusting regardless of his most recent play.
Other centers to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- MacKinnon, Draisaitl, Bergeron, Scheifele
- Mid-Tier- RNH
- Value- Backstrom, Schenn, Kuznetsov, Jost
NHL DFS Forward Picks
- David Pastrnak, BOS ($7,200 DK / $7,500 FD) - Pastrnak might be the best overall value on the slate based on how he is priced on both sites. He is about 1k cheaper than usual across the board despite notching a goal and an assist while taking six shots on goal in his last outing against the Capitals. Pastrnak should be in play in all formats and would be one of the first skaters that I would plug into my cash game lineup.
Other wings to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- Rantanen, Ovechkin, Marchand, Landeskog, Connor
- Mid-Tier- Wheeler, Hall, Teravainen, Oshie, Puljujarvi
- Value- Tarasenko, Mantha, Hoffman, Smith, Donskoi, Copp, Saad
NHL DFS Defenseman Picks
- Darnell Nurse, EDM ($6,000 DK / $5,300 FD) - The price tag on Nurse is extremely doable for this slate, and with his solid floor that he brings in every matchup, he makes for a great cash game defenseman. Nurse is coming off of a nine peripheral state game as he recorded both the shot on goal bonus and shot block bonus on DK.
Other defensemen to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- Barrie, Carlson, Makar
- Mid-Tier- McAvoy, Grzelcyk, Toews, Krug, Morrissey
- Value- Parayko, Graves, Pionk, Forbort
NHL DFS Goalie Picks
- Phillip Grubauer, COL ($8,300 DK / $8,300 FD) - We might as well play it safe and consider Grubauer our top option in all formats when it comes to the goalie position. He is in tremendous form as he has won six straight starts and has also won every start this postseason against the Blues. In those three starts against St. Louis, Grubauer has allowed only five total goals out of 90 total shots which result in a fantastic .944 save percentage. While he might carry some higher ownership, he certainly is the safest play on the board at this position.
Other goalies to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- Rask
- Mid-Tier- Smith
- Value-
Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them in case he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!
Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks
- BOS 1
- Marchand/ Bergeron/ Pastrnak (McAvoy, D-men add on)
- The Bruins are still very expensive and this is more of a tournament play and possible ownership play considering them up over the likes of EDM1 and COL 1. The pricing on them should bring down ownership despite this line looking very good in this series against Washington. The main three for Boston is coming off of a game where they generated eight scoring chances and four high-danger chances while both Pastrnak and Marchand scored power-play goals.
- Marchand/ Bergeron/ Pastrnak (McAvoy, D-men add on)
Other Stacks to consider in order of preference: COL 1, EDM 1, BOS 2, WPG 1, EDM 2, COL 2
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
