RADIO
Jorge Pucks delivers his top DraftKings, FanDuel NHL DFS value plays and research for May 20th including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays, stacks.
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season has now entered the postseason which is the most exciting time to watch and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Friday, May 21st, 2020 at 6:30 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 5/21
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- Washington Capitals vs. Boston Bruins (-160) - 5.5U
- Carolina Hurricanes (-140) vs. Nashville Predators - 5O
- Winnipeg Jets vs. Edmonton Oilers (-160) - 5.5O
- Colorado Avalanche (-210) vs. St. Louis Blues - 5.5O
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
| Team | Rank GA | Rank SA | Rank GF | Rank SF | Total |
| Washington | 17 | 20 | 27 | 17 | 14.5 |
| Boston | 4 | 29 | 18 | 3 | 19.25 |
| Carolina | 4 | 24 | 21 | 5 | 13.25 |
| Nashville | 9 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 11 |
| Winnipeg | 12 | 10 | 20 | 13 | 15.5 |
| Edmonton | 9 | 15 | 23 | 17 | 14.25 |
| Colorado | 3 | 31 | 31 | 2 | 18.25 |
| St. Louis | 19 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 17.5 |
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
NHL DFS Power Play Matrix
| Matchup | PP Rank | Opp PK Rank |
| Washington | 3 | 2 |
| Boston | 10 | 5 |
| Carolina | 2 | 29 |
| Nashville | 23 | 3 |
| Winnipeg | 7 | 9 |
| Edmonton | 1 | 13 |
| Colorado | 8 | 24 |
| St. Louis | 6 | 8 |
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).
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NHL DFS Core Plays
The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).
When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.
NHL DFS Center Picks
- Connor McDavid, EDM ($9,100 DK / $9,000 FD) - It's hard to not go straight to Nathan MacKinnon against the Blues but McDavid is the best player in hockey and draws a matchup against a Montreal team that he has personally dominated all season long. McDavid has recorded seven goals and 15 assists in just 10 games this season and while he is coming off of a stinker performance in the opening game of their playoff series with the Canadiens, he should bounce right back as he has had multi-point outings in seven of his last 10 games played and it's hard to imagine him going pointless in two straight games.
Other centers to consider:
- High Priced- MacKinnon, Draisaitl, Bergeron, Aho
- Mid-Tier- Trocheck, Kadri, Backstrom
- Value- Staal, Kuznetsov, Johansen, Haula
NHL DFS Forward Picks
- Mikko Rantanen, COL ($8,100 DK / $8,400 FD) - Rantanen has been an assist machine as he has accumulated nine total assists over his last four games and he continues to be a playmaker alongside Nathan MacKinnon. While the assist total is high, Rantanen still brings a decent shot volume as he has taken eight shots so far in the opening round against St. Louis and is still searching for a goal as he has gone goalless in six straight games. If you're paying up for McDavid in cash games but still want to get exposure to MacKinnon, rostering Rantanen would be one way to go as he will skate with him at all times.
Other wings to consider:
- High Priced- Ovechkin, Pastrank, Marchand, Landeskog, Connor
- Mid-Tier- Wheeler, Svechnikov, RNH, Hall, Teravainen, Oshie, Puljujarvi, Mantha Necas
- Value- Tarasenko, Donskoi, Schenn, Copp, Niederrieter, Smith, Hoffman, Duchene, Saad
NHL DFS Defenseman Picks
- Dougie Hamilton, CAR ($6,400 DK / $6,600 FD) - Hamilton is just one of the safest options on the slate and he gets the job done in so many ways. In Game 2 against the Predators, Hamilton recorded eight peripheral stats while also notching an assist in just 21 minutes of ice time. He now has eight points in nine games against Nashville this season but the area to focus on is his overall peripheral total against the Predators which sits at 38 peripherals. Hamilton isn't afraid to put the puck on the net and with how involved he is on the offensive end, he makes for a great all-around play.
Other defensemen to consider:
- High Priced- Makar, Nurse
- Mid-Tier- Josi, Barrie, Carlson, Ellis, Krug
- Value- Pionk, Parayko, Ekholm, Pesce, Reilly, Forbort
NHL DFS Goalie Picks
- Mike Smith, EDM ($8,100 DK / $7,500 FD) - The pricing on Smith is pretty favorable especially on FD and despite losing 4-1 against Winnipeg on Wednesday night, there is a lot to like about Smith. he stopped 18 of 20 total shots as two of the four goals by the Jets that were scored were empty netters so he actually did pretty well if you look at his actual stats. Heading into Friday night's matchup, Smith has won four of his last five starts and has only allowed 10 total goals in that five-game stretch so he has been in really good form lately which is always key when considering your goalie for the slate.
Other goalies to consider:
- High Priced- Grubauer
- Mid-Tier- Nedeljkovic
- Value- Hellebuyck
Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them in case he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!
Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks
- COL 1
- Landeskog/ MacKinnon/ Rantanen (Makar, D-men add on)
- The top line for the Avalanche continues to be a problem for the Blues and despite being on the Blues home ice the next couple of games, MacKinnon and his linemates look to be the top skating trio that carries the highest line upside on this slate. When looking at this top line on the road against the Blues, they have only played 18 full minutes together but have scored one goal while generating 11 scoring chances and four high-danger opportunities. The pricing on this line is pretty high and it might be tough squeezing all three of them into your tournament builds so focusing on MacKinnon, Makar and one of the wingers could be the move to open up salary while also getting a good amount of exposure to the top Avalanche line.
- Landeskog/ MacKinnon/ Rantanen (Makar, D-men add on)
Other Stacks to consider: EDM 1, BOS 1, CAR 1, EDM 2, CAR 2, STL 3
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
