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Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Tuesday, May 18th, 2020 at 7:30 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 5/18
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- New York Islanders vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (-135) - 5.5U
- Tampa Bay Lightning (-130) vs. Florida Panthers - 6O
- Minnesota Wild vs Vegas Golden Knights (-165) - 5.5U
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
| Team | Rank GA | Rank SA | Rank GF | Rank SF | Total |
| New York Islanders | 2 | 22 | 12 | 20 | 15.75 |
| Pittsburgh | 13 | 16 | 30 | 9 | 15.25 |
| Tampa Bay | 6 | 23 | 23 | 8 | 14.25 |
| Florida | 9 | 16 | 27 | 1 | 14 |
| Minnesota | 16 | 14 | 23 | 27 | 15.75 |
| Vegas | 1 | 28 | 29 | 4 | 19.75 |
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
NHL DFS Power Play Matrix
| Matchup | PP Rank | Opp PK Rank |
| New York Islanders | 20 | 27 |
| Pittsburgh | 4 | 6 |
| Tampa Bay | 9 | 17 |
| Florida | 15 | 4 |
| Minnesota | 24 | 1 |
| Vegas | 22 | 12 |
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).
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NHL DFS Core Plays
The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).
When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.
NHL DFS Center Picks
- Sidney Crosby, PIT ($7,600 DK / $8,400 FD) - Crosby did not disappoint in game one of their series against the Islanders as he took five shots on goal while scoring a goal. Crosby is not a high-volume shooter but has been very active on the offensive end over his last five games as he has taken 16 shots on goal while having five goals scored.
Other centers to consider:
- High Priced- Barkov, Point
- Mid-Tier- Malkin, Karlsson, Carter, Stephenson, Eriksson Ek
- Value- Nelson, Gourde, Pageau, Cirelli, Wennberg, Acciari
NHL DFS Forward Picks
- Nikita Kucherov, TBL ($7,800 DK / $8,400 FD) - Kucherov returned to the Lightning's lineup in game one against the Panthers and his presence was definitely felt. In just 19 minutes of ice time, Kucherov took five shots on goal and recorded two goals and one assist. Kucherov looked healthy and seeing him skate for 19 minutes was extremely encouraging and he should be considered in all formats as he is priced down on both sites by at least $500 each.
Other wings to consider:
- High Priced- Pacioretty, Guentzel, Kaprizov, Stone, Huberdeau, Stamkos, Hornqvist, Marchessault, Fiala
- Mid-Tier- Rust, Verhaeghe, McCann, Zuccarello
- Value- Palat, Smith, Eberle, Tuch, Kapanen, Coleman, Zucker, Tippett, Foligno, Palmieri, Gusev, Parise, NOsek
NHL DFS Defenseman Picks
- Shea Theodore, VGK ($5,800 DK / $5,900 FD) - Theodore continues to rack up the peripheral stats as he recorded five shots on goal and one blocked shot in 22 minutes of ice time against the Wild in game one on Sunday. Theodore now has 33 peripheral stats in nine games against Minnesota and he is certainly due to record a point as he has gone pointless over his last six games played.
Other defensemen to consider:
- High Priced- Pietrangelo, Hedman
- Mid-Tier- Letang, Martinez, Spurgeon, Sergachev, Pulock
- Value- Dumba, Brodin, McDonagh, Forsling, Cernak, Yandle, Leddy, Suter, Matheson, Hague
NHL DFS Goalie Picks
- Marc-Andre Fleury, VGK ($8,400 DK / $8,300 FD) - The Golden Knights lost a heartbreaker on Sunday as they took an "L" in overtime against the Minnesota Wild. Fleury looked extremely sharp as he stopped 29 of 30 shots faced and it is tough to imagine Vegas dropping two straight games at home to start their post-season run. Fleury is now 3-3-1 against the Wild this season but only has a 2.19 goals allowed average which means Fleury is doing his job by limiting the Wild to barely two goals per game. With it being tough to see Vegas drop two at home, it would make sense to roster Fleury with confidence on Tuesday.
Other goalies to consider:
- High Priced-
- Mid-Tier- Jarry
- Value- Talbot
Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them in case he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!
Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks
- PIT 1
- Guentzel/ Crosby/ Rust (Letang, D-men add on)
- The Crosby line looked to be all over the ice during game one on Sunday afternoon against the Islanders. They sported a 56.76 corsi for rate and was able to generate one goal at 5v5. What really stands out is the fact that they were able to generate 17 scoring chances for and five high-danger opportunities. From a line matching perspective, the Crosby line shared the ice most of the time with the Pageau and Cizikas lines (3rd/4th NYI lines) and we can anticipate this line matching to carry over to this game. With all three Penguins forwards skating on the same line and same power-play line, they look to be one of the best three-man stacks to roster on this three-game slate.
- Guentzel/ Crosby/ Rust (Letang, D-men add on)
Other Stacks to consider: TBL 1, VGK 2, MIN 2
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
