RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Sunday, May 16th, 2020 at 12:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 5/16
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- New York Islanders vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (-130) - 5O
- Minnesota Wild vs. Vegas Golden Knights (-165) - 5.5O
- Tampa Bay Lightning (-120) vs Florida Panthers - 5.5O
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
| Team | Rank GA | Rank SA | Rank GF | Rank SF | Total |
| New York Islanders | 2 | 22 | 12 | 20 | 15.75 |
| Pittsburgh | 14 | 16 | 30 | 9 | 15.5 |
| Minnesota | 16 | 14 | 23 | 27 | 15.75 |
| Vegas | 1 | 28 | 29 | 4 | 19.75 |
| Tampa Bay | 6 | 23 | 23 | 8 | 15.5 |
| Florida | 1 | 28 | 29 | 4 | 15 |
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
NHL DFS Power Play Matrix
| Matchup | PP Rank | Opp PK Rank |
| New York Islanders | 21 | 27 |
| Pittsburgh | 4 | 6 |
| Minnesota | 23 | 1 |
| Vegas | 22 | 12 |
| Tampa Bay | 9 | 17 |
| Florida | 15 | 4 |
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).
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NHL DFS Core Plays
The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).
When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.
NHL DFS Center Picks
- Sidney Crosby, PIT ($7,700 DK / $8,400 FD) - Crosby flashed really good form as the regular season ended as he registered six points in his final four games of the season. Crosby scored a goal in three of the four final games played and has fared out well against the Islanders as he scored three goals and six assists in eight games on the season.
Other centers to consider:
- High Priced- Barkov, Point
- Mid-Tier- Malin, Bennett, Karlsson, Carter
- Value- Nelson, Gourde, Cirelli, Wennberg
NHL DFS Forward Picks
- Steven Stamkos, TBL ($6,100 DK / $7,400 FD) - Stamkos will be back for the first game of the playoffs against the Panthers and he is slated to skate on the Lightning's second line. Stamkos has one goal in two games played against the Panthers this season but should benefit now that Nikita Kucherov is back and will bring a lot of attention to the Lightning's top line which means the second line of Tampa could go overlooked.
Other wings to consider:
- High Priced- Pacioretty, Kucherov, Guentzel, Kaprizov, Stone, Hornqvist, Fiala, Stamkos
- Mid-Tier- Rust, Marchessault, McCann, Zuccarello
- Value- Eberle, Smith, Kapanen, Coleman, Tippett, Foligno, Palmieri, Gusev, Parise
NHL DFS Defenseman Picks
- Shea Theodore, VGK ($5,900 DK / $6,200 FD) - The pricing has come down on Theodore which means now is the time to hop right back on the Theodore bandwagon and roster him. He has gone pointless in five games as the regular season concluded but still managed to average three peripheral stats per game over that five-game stretch which means he still has a solid floor from a fantasy perspective.
Other defensemen to consider:
- High Priced- Pietrangelo, Hedman
- Mid-Tier- Letang, Martinez, Spurgeon, Sergachev, Dumba
- Value- Pulock, Brodin, McDonagh, Forsling, Cernak, Yandle, Leddy, Suter, Hague
NHL DFS Goalie Picks
- Marc-Andre Fleury, VGK ($8,200 DK / $8,300 FD) - Vegas is looking to make a run here in the playoffs and they draw a tough test against a Wild team that has greatly improved over the last year. Fleury should draw the start between the pipes and has been one of the top goalies in the league so rostering him would be the wise choice from a cash game perspective. Fleury has gone 3-3 against Minnesota this season but has fared well as he stopped 158 of 172 total shots faced and accrued a 2.41 goals allowed average and a .919 save percentage.
Other goalies to consider:
- High Priced- Jarry
- Mid-Tier- Bobrovsky
- Value- Talbot
Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them in case he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!
Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks
- PIT 1
- Guentzel/ Crosby/ Rust (Letang, D-men add on)
- The top lines for the Pens has lots of scoring potential and would be one to look to stack in tournaments on this three-game slate. They have done well against the Islanders as they have scored four goals in just 75 minutes of ice time while generating 34 scoring chances and 18 high-danger opportunities. All three forwards are featured on the top power-play unit for the Penguins so they're fully correlated at all times should you decide to stack all three of them.
- Guentzel/ Crosby/ Rust (Letang, D-men add on)
Other Stacks to consider: TBL 1, FLA 1, VGk 1, VGK2, PIT 2, TBL 2
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
