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Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Friday, May 14th, 2020 at 8:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 5/14
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- Toronto Maple Leafs (-165) vs. Winnipeg Jets - 6U
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
| Team | Rank GA | Rank SA | Rank GF | Rank SF | Total |
| Toronto | 8 | 25 | 26 | 6 | 16.25 |
| Winnipeg | 12 | 11 | 20 | 12 | 13.75 |
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
NHL DFS Power Play Matrix
| Matchup | PP Rank | Opp PK Rank |
| Toronto | 16 | 15 |
| Winnipeg | 7 | 22 |
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).
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NHL DFS Core Plays- Showdown Edition
Captain Picks
- Auston Matthews ($17,100 DK/ $15,500 FD) - Matthews is the clear-cut top option on this showdown slate and should be one of the best captain options in all formats. In just eight games against the Jets this season, Matthews has scored five goals and notched five assists while managing to take 41 shots on goal and eight blocked shots. While the price tag is high, he is worth every penny and should not be ignored on this showdown slate.
- Jack Campbell ($15,000 DK) - Campbell is a prime captain option over on DK for this showdown slate. Campbell has won four of his last five starts and has only allowed nine total goals over those five starts which shows the great form that he has been in. In five starts against Winnipeg, Campbell has gone 4-1 with a 2.09 goals allowed average and has accrued a .930 save percentage as he has stopped 119 out of 128 total shots faced.
- Mark Scheifele ($13,500 DK/ 14,500 FD) - If you're wanting to be contrarian on the showdown slate, rostering Scheifele would be one way to go in tournament builds that will be lower owned. He has been on a point streak as he has scored a point in four straight games while also registering six total points in that four-game span. In nine games against the Jets this season, Scheifele has managed to score three goals and record six assists while recording 30 peripheral stats along the way.
Value Picks
- Alex Galchenyuk ($5,600 DK/ $7,500 FD) - Galchenyuk looks like he could be sliding up to the top line for Toronto which means he will be skating with both Matthews and Marner at full-strength which is always makes for an intriguing value play. When this line was together at full strength, they scored five even-strength goals while generating 65 scoring chances and 31 high danger opportunities in 80 minutes of ice time.
- Alex Kerfoot ($3,600 DK/ $7,500 FD) - Kerfoot is an intriguing value play on this showdown slate as he centers his own line (TOR 3) and also sees time on their second power-play unit. Kerfoot has a solid floor for his price point as he is averaging two shots on goal per game over his last four games played and is averaging over one blocked shot per game. Kerfoot has been successful against the Jets this year as he has recorded two goals and two assists while taking 15 shots on goal in nine games against Winnipeg.
- Mason Appleton($4,200 DK/ $7,000 FD) - You will need to find some value to squeeze in some high-priced guys and also find some lower-owned guys to differentiate in tournament builds. Appleton is one to consider as he has scored two goals over his last three games played and has actually fared well against Toronto this year as he has scored two goals and recorded four assists while racking up 15 shots on goal.
Stacks
- TOR 1- Galchenyuk/ Matthews/Marner
- TOR 2- Foligno/ Tavares/ Nylander
- WPG 1- Connor/ Scheifele/ Wheeler
Player Pool
C- Matthews, Scheifele, Tavares, Kerfoot, Stastny
W- Marner, Wheeler, Connor, Nylander, Galchenyuk, Foligno, Mikheyev, Perrault, Appleton, Thornton
D- Reilly, Morrissey, Pionk, Muzzin, Brodie, DeMelo, Forbort
G- Campbell, Hellebuyck
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
