NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings (4/25): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

3 years ago by Jorge Pucks

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Sunday, April 25th, 2020 at 6:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 4/25

- New Jersey Devils vs. Philadelphia Flyers (-167) - 6.5U
- Buffalo Sabres vs. New York Rangers (-286) - 6U
- Columbus Blue Jackets vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-300) - 5.5U

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

Team	Rank GA	Rank SA	Rank GF	Rank SF	Total
New Jersey	29	12	5	14	16.75
Philadelphia	30	19	14	12	17
Buffalo	27	1	4	27	18.75
New York Rangers	9	21	25	22	15.25
Columbus	26	5	3	23	16.75
Tampa Bay	7	22	27	9	13.75

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

Matchup	PP Rank	Opp PK Rank
New Jersey	29	30
Philadelphia	20	31
Buffalo	12	4
New York Rangers	14	16
Columbus	28	10
Tampa Bay	5	13

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).

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NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

Mika Zibanejad, NYR ($7,800 DK / $8,000 FD) - Zibanejad is the highest-priced center on both sites on this three-game slate but given the matchup against Buffalo and his recent form, his high price tag is certainly warranted. Zibanejad has registered eight points over his last five games played and has three points against Buffalo in six total games this season.
Nico Hischier, NJD ($5,300 DK/ $4,600 FD) - While Hischier doesn't offer the greatest upside, he has scored goals in two of his last three games played and has recorded 17 total shots on goal over his last five games played. He might be one to target in tournaments as this game looks to be the closest contest while also featuring the highest game total on the slate.

Other centers to consider:

High Priced- Couturier, Strome, Point
Mid-Tier- Gourde, Hughes, Hayes
Value- Roslovic, Cirelli

NHL DFS Forward Picks

Artemi Panarin, NYR ($8,400 DK / $8,400 FD) - Panarin is in great form as he enters the Sunday game against the Sabres. Panarin has torched them this year he has recorded three goals and notched six assists in five games while also taking 22 shots on goal. In addition to his recent history against Buffalo, he has registered nine points over his last five games and could have the highest upside of any skater on this slate.
Blake Coleman, TBL ($4,000 DK / $3,700 FD) - Tampa looks to be in a good spot against Columbus and you can get a solid Tampa Bay if you choose to roster Blake Coleman. Coleman is coming off of a two-goal effort on Thursday night against the Blue Jackets and should hopefully draw similar line matchups. He has recorded four goals and two assists in six games against Columbus so far this season so with his given price point on both sites, he makes for a great play in all formats.

Other wings to consider:

High Priced- Buchnevich, Atkinson
Mid-Tier- Kreider, Palat, Giroux, Bjorkstrand, Voracek
Value- Laine, Goodrow, Lafreniere

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

Victor Hedman, TBL ($7,300 DK / $6,400 FD) - The pricing on Hedman is much easier to bear over on FD than it is on DK. Hedman has the highest fantasy ceiling out of all defenseman that is featured on this slate and has been a peripheral stat monster against the Blue Jackets as he has 36 combined peripheral stats in seven games.
Will Butcher, NJD ($3,600 DK / $3,500 FD) - The Devils have gotten bit by the injury bug, especially in the defenseman department, which means that we could see Will Butcher get more ice time as he will be featured on the top Devils power-play unit. With the increase in playing time and potential point-getting opportunities by skating on the top power-play unit, BUtcher could make for a solid value play in all formats.

Other defensemen to consider:

High Priced- Fox, Jones, Provorov
Mid-Tier- Sergachev, Gostisbehere
Value- Cernak, Dahlin, Miller

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

Andrei Vasilevskiy, TBL ($8,200 DK / $8,600 FD) - Tampa Bay is the heaviest favorite on the slate so it makes sense to gravitate towards rostering Andrei Vasilevskiy. Vasilevskiy is one of the top goalies in the entire league and he is currently sporting a 27-8-1 record and a 2.08 goals allowed average. Vasilevskiy has won three of his last five games that he has started and is 3-2 against Columbus this season. He will certainly benefit with the Lightning having the home-ice advantage as Vasilevskiy is 15-2 with a 1.77 goals allowed average when tending the net at home.

Other goalies to consider:

High Priced- Shesterkin
Mid-Tier- Elliott
Value- Korpisalo

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them in case he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks

NYR 2
- Panarin/ Strome/ Blackwell
  - A good chunk of ownership could go to the top line of the Rangers which means we could look to roster the second line of the Rangers at reduced ownership. This line is sporting a 2.33 expected goals for rate per 60 minutes of ice time while generating 28.21 scoring chances for and 7.34 high danger chances for per 60. This line has fared well against Buffalo this season as they have scored a 5v5 goal in 17 minutes of ice time while also generating nine scoring chances and one high-danger opportunity.
TBL 2
- Goodrow/ Gourde/ Coleman
  - This second line for Tampa Bay might be the best overall value line on this slate. They have a 2.62 expected goals for rate per 60 minutes of ice time while averaging 30.02 scoring chances for and 12.84 high danger chances for per 60. They have certainly had success against Columbus this year as they have scored six goals and allowed three goals in 54 minutes of ice time. In that same 54 minute span, they generated 36 scoring chances for and 18 high danger chances while also generating four high-danger goals.