NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings (4/11): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

April 11, 2021

Jorge Pucks delivers his top DraftKings, FanDuel NHL DFS value plays and research for April 11th including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays, stacks.

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Sunday, April 11th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 4/11

• • Colorado Avalanche (-380) vs. Anaheim Ducks - 5.5O
  • Pittsburgh Penguins (-185) vs. New Jersey Devils - 6U
  • New York Rangers vs. New York Islanders (-125) - 5.5U
  • Washington Capitals vs. Boston Bruins (-120) - 5.5O
  • Dallas Stars (-114) vs. Nashville Predators (-106) - 5.5U

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium NHL DFS subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Jorge by using promo code JORGEPUCKS when purchasing an NHL DFS Premium Pass. You get 10% off, and exclusive access to all of our Premium NHL cheat sheets, DFS research tools, Premium Slack Chatrooms, Stack Builder, Correlation Matrix and Lineup Optimizer!

NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

• Sidney Crosby, PIT ($7,600 DK / $8,300 FD) - While there are several options to pay up at the center position, Crosby remains one of the more consistent options on the slate. Crosby has had two three-point outings in his last five games and has fared well against the Devils as he has recorded two goals and four assists in just four games against them this season.
• Jamie Benn, DAL ($5,100 DK/ $6,200) - Benn is center eligible over on DK but he is still listed as a winger over on FD so you might need to roster him in a utility spot over there if you're trying to do a full Dallas 2 line stack. Benn has been pretty solid over his last 10 games from a fantasy perspective as he is averaging over three peripheral stats per game and has recorded five points during that stretch.

Other centers to consider: 

• High Priced- MacKinnon, Bergeron, Barzal, Hintz
• Mid-Tier- McCann, Kuznetsov, Hughes, 
• Value- Granlund, Krejci, Johansen, Carrick

NHL DFS Forward Picks

• Mikko Rantanen, COL ($7,700 DK / Not on FD) - Rantanen has been in very solid form over his last four games as he has recorded a point in three of his last four games played while recording a goal in back-to-back games. Rantanen has been extremely good against the Ducks this season as he has scored seven goals and one assist in seven games against Anaheim.
• Craig Smith, BOS ($4,000 DK / $4,700 FD) - Craig Smith has been playing very well as of late and part of that has been due to him getting the bump up to the top Bruins line. Over his last five games, Smith has scored seven points and has had three multi-point outings and has fared well against Washington this year as he has scored two goals and two assists in five games against them.

Other wings to consider: 

• High Priced- Ovechkin, Pastrnak, Marchand, Guentzel, Landeskog, Rust, Pavelski
• Mid-Tier- Robertson, Rakell, Ritchie, Palmieri
• Value- Burakovsky, Sharangovich, Saad, Zucker, Kuokkanen

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

• Kris Letang, PIT ($6,100 DK / $6,300 FD) - Letang has been a big contributor on the offensive end lately for the Penguins. He has produced three-straight multi-point outings and has scored a point in four of his last five games. Letang has notched four assists in four games against New Jersey this year and is averaging four peripheral stats per game against them as well.
• Ryan Ellis, NSH ($4,500 DK / $3,500 FD) - Ryan Ellis was activated from injured reserve on Saturday and saw 19 minutes of ice time. Ellis is the second-best defenseman for the Predators and is usually priced up in the mid 5k range so you get a big discount on rostering him today. Ellis had a slow start to the season but some of that could be placed on his injury so taking a stab on him at this price point is not the worst play to make today.

Other defensemen to consider: 

• High Priced- Fox, Josi, Carlson
• Mid-Tier- Makar, Klingberg, Pulock, Ekholm
• Value- Trouba, Subban, Graves, Schultz, Fowler

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

• Philipp Grubauer, COL ($8,400 DK / Not on FD) - Jonas Johansson got the spot start for the Avs on Friday night against the Ducks which most likely means that Grubauer will get the nod in net against Anaheim on this slate. Grubauer has been very good this season as he has a 24-8-1 record on the year and is sporting a 2.00 goals allowed average and a .919 save percentage. He is coming off of his roughest outing of the season as he allowed seven goals on 18 total shots faced but gets a favorable matchup against Anaheim as he is 4-1 against them with a 1.70 goals allowed average and a .927 save percentage against them.
• Tristan Jarry, WPG ($8,200 DK / $8,000 FD) - Jarry has been exceptionally good in net over his last nine games. During that stretch, he is 7-1-1 with a .923 save percentage and a 2.43 goals allowed average. He has won his last four straight starts and has combined for only seven goals allowed in that four-game span. While Jarry has yet to record a win against New Jersey this year, he has only allowed five total goals in the two games in which he faced them while also seeing a total of 70 shots.

Other goalies to consider: 

• High Priced- Varlamov
• Mid-Tier- Vlader
• Value- Rinne

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them in case he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks 

• BOS 1  
  • Marchand/ Bergeron/ Smith (Grzelcyk, d-men add on)
    • This newly formed top line for Boston has done very well in just 68 minutes of ice time together. They are sporting a 3.53 expected goals for and are generating 35.18 scoring chances for and 15.83 high danger chances for per 60. What really stands out from this line is that they have scored eight goals in that 68-minute span and should draw the Ovechkin line for Washington which has always been one to pick on defensively.
• PIT 1  
  • Guentzel/ Crosby/ Rust (Letang, d-men add on) 
    • With it being a smaller slate, it is hard to not gravitate towards the Penguin's top line. This line has scored three goals in 56 minutes of ice time against the Devils this season and has generated 26 scoring chances and 10 high danger chances against them. On the season, this line is generating a 2.44 expected goals for rate and is generating 29.1 scoring chances for and 12.39 high danger chances for per 60. They are fully correlated t even strength and get to face the worst penalty-killing team in the league so this could be a spot to target the full line including Letang.

Other Stacks to consider: COL 1, DAL 1, NYI 1, BOS 2

Key Abbreviations:

xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time

GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time

SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time

If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!

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