RADIO
Welcome back to another LoL DFS slate. Five game slate tonight with a bunch of close games! Should be an exciting one.
Roster changes will be addressed if need be when mentioning each team. As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up mid-REM sleep, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series. (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131) We are going to try and project starters based on who has recently been starting. LPL starters are found earlier and on Twitter too.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 2:45 AM on Saturday, July 9th, 2022. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @nvanhareDFS. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis. The odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups
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4:00 AM: LSB (-160) vs. NS (+131)
The first LCK game of the night features two teams with polar opposite stories. Last split LSB was looked at as the worst team in the league and NS was competing with some of the best. This time around, NS has looked abysmal and LSB has really shown out. The Sandy Bois of LSB have been on fire lately and I think this meta suits them well. I also have a bias against NS and always have, but at least this split they are playing poorly to align with my view! I like this spot for small stacks in GPPs for the most part and a good place to avoid for cash given how close the odds are and how low the floors for winning players are.
Top LSB plays: Prince, Croco
Top NS plays: Bdd, Ghost
7:00 AM: DWG (-906) vs. HLE (+595)
Second LCK game of the day and we have a no-brainer spot. DWG is in a great spot to get a win and are likely to steamroll this win in a 2-0 fashion. The problem with Damwon is that they rarely compile any kind of surplus of kills. Even if Damwon dominate we might see two 14-0 games from them where no player really puts up a crazy score. Due to this I'm likely to stay fully away from Damwon in GPPs but use large stacks of them in cash games. They all have a very high floor and on a slate with odds like today you're going to want 3-4 DWG in cash games.
Top DWG Plays: ShowMaker, Canyon
Top HLE Plays: Vsta, SamD
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LPL Matches
2:45 AM: AL (-116) vs. UP (-104)
1st LPL game of the night and we have a brutal misprice by DraftKings. In a coinflip matchup, AL is priced as the 2nd biggest dog on the slate and UP is priced as the 2nd biggest favorite. This leads to some interesting consequences given the pricing. In cash games AL becomes a very likely stack to pair with the DWG 4 stack, and this is likely a mostly correct move. In GPPs however there becomes a lot of merit in fading the use of AL. AL is likely to come in as the highest owned GPP team on the slate. They're cheap and they make every other team fit into nice looking lineups. This will naturally lower the UP ownership even though it was already going to be low. Look to see AL being 3x as owned as UP if not more in tonight's GPPs. This might be a spot to slam UP to take advantage of the lack of usage.
Top AL Plays: Betty, Xiaohao
Top UP Plays: Elk, H4cker
5:00 AM: WBG (-150) vs. BLG (+124)
BLG has looked absolutely terrible this split so far. After using icon for a few matches, BLG have come to their senses and began playing FoFo again. However, they decided it was time to swap someone else out so instead of WeiWei we now get Can. This is really hard to gauge as we have no idea how Can fits into WeiWei's role. Hopefully BLG continues to use him for a game or two after his one so we can get a better idea of how this team looks with him. This is a nice game to target in GPPs as I think of the 3 LPL games it is likely the most overlooked. In cash I don't know if backing either side is the greatest move so will mostly aim to avoid using them in cash.
Top WBG Plays: huanfeng, Angel
Top BLG Plays: FoFo, Doggo
7:00 AM: TES (-129) vs. RNG (+107)
Last game of the night for LPL and it sure is a banger. RNG and TES are two of, if not the top two of, the best teams in the LPL right now. Both teams have looked very good on this patch and are unlikely to make any big mistakes. This means that we are likely up to see at least 2 very exciting games of LoL early tomorrow morning. I slightly lean to RNG in this matchup as I just don't think they mess up leads as often as TES does, but both teams have such a similar style that any prediction is likely moot. Myself, and likely the field, are going to be slamming this game in GPPs and I don't think it would be a great idea to full fade this game if you're running more than a lineup or two. This is another game I would like to avoid using in cash games as well.
Top TES Plays: Knight, JackeyLove
Top RNG Plays: Xiaohu, Wei
Summary
- TLDR: AL is going to be the chalk of the chalk. Draftkings did a horrible job pricing that game and as a result it has some interesting GPP ownership ramifications. Fading them in GPPs may be my favorite play on this slate, but if they win they will likely be necessary.
- GPP Stacks: UP, RNG, BLG
- Cash Stacks: DWG, AL
Good luck tomorrow RotoBallers!
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