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Indianapolis Colts RB Marlon Mack is a hot waiver wire add and trade asset entering Week 8 of the 2018 NFL season. Aaron Schillinger examines Mack's profile to determine if he is indeed a legit running back asset in fantasy football leagues.
Week 7 in the NFL wasn't exactly ideal for the stud running backs in fantasy football. Ezekiel Elliot was a dud after being projected as an elite option against Washington, Melvin Gordon was inactive, LeSean McCoy was injured early on, Sony Michel was injured, and Joe Mixon was underwhelming. Other running backs were also disappointing, but you get the idea. There's a good chance that some of your teams somewhere were disappointed by one or more of your usual stud running backs. On the flip side, you had guys like Nick Chubb and Marlon Mack stepping in and getting it done.
This is the time of the year when a waiver wire claim for a guy like Chubb or Mack can really turn your team around and even turn into a potential league winner. Let's hope you grabbed one or both of these running backs last week or have been stashing them for some time because both of these guys may be just what your team needs to make a playoff run.
That leads us to the question, "Is Marlon Mack Legit?"
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The Profile
At 5'11" 213 pounds out of Central Florida, the second-year running back for the Indianapolis Colts finds himself in a prime position to step in and claim an RB1 role. Heading into the 2017 season, Marlon Mack was getting some love as a potential late-round running back to target in your fantasy drafts. PlayerProfiler actually had his comparison to none other than Marshawn Lynch. He wasn't viewed as your typical three-down back as a rookie, but more of a complimentary back. He shows excellent speed and I believe he shows more speed during games rather than his combine speed showed. His 4.5 forty-yard-dash time wasn't too impressive and he didn't run in the agility drills. Similar to his game speed, his film in college shows his ability to cut and I believe he does have the quickness to make defenders miss in the NFL. I believe the most intriguing part of his game is his speed and the home run potential that comes with it.
Rookie Campaign
Unfortunately for Mack, he was forced to sit behind one of the league's most consistent running backs in veteran Frank Gore. Gore played all 16 games in 2017 and had 1,206 yards from scrimmage with four total touchdowns. He finished his rookie season playing in 14 games where he totaled 358 rushing yards on 93 carries and three touchdowns. It's worth noting that he also was targetted 33 times and caught 21 of them for 225 receiving yards and a touchdown. The upside in the passing game that comes with Mack is intriguing, and could ultimately help with his ceiling for fantasy purposes.
Mack's rookie campaign was fairly disappointing for a number of reasons that I don't believe he should be discounted for. The first and most obvious was the absence of Andrew Luck. Jacoby Brissett wasn't terrible, but that offense as a whole was struggling. The offensive line was also a major struggle. The Colts have shuffled their offensive line around too many times to count over the last few years. According to FootballOutsiders, Colts run blocking statistically was slightly below average in 2017. Their pass protection was ranked dead last on the season. So far in 2018, they're ranked in fifth in both run blocking and pass protection, which is something that Mack owners should be very excited about. The final and more obvious reason for Mack's struggles in his rookie campaign from a fantasy standpoint was the volume. I'll chalk this up almost entirely to Gore. With Gore now in Miami, Mack's window of opportunity is wide open.
The Opportunity
Sometimes all it takes for a player to be successful in the NFL (and for your fantasy football teams), all it takes is the right opportunity. For Marlon Mack, the opportunity currently in front of him should have all you Mack owners foaming at the mouth. After missing Week 1, Mack was active for Week 2 against the Redskins where he saw 10 carries. Weeks three, four, and five, Mack was sidelined dealing with a nagging hamstring injury. In Week 6 on the road against the Jets, he saw 12 carries in a shootout that forced the Colts to have a game script that wasn't ideal for Mack. In Week 7, we saw him blow up against the Bills for 159 total yards and two touchdowns. 21 total touches for Mack is exactly what we've been hoping for him to get now that he's fully healthy, and again, the opportunity is wide open.
The biggest negative that I can see for Mack for fantasy purposes, is another piece of that backfield. Rookies Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins are the only guys standing in front of Mack for playing time, and potentially taking opportunities away from him. According to FootballOutsiders, Hines has been leading the Colts backfield in snaps this year. Hines also saw more snaps in Week 6 with 30 offensive snaps (43%) while Mack had 24 snaps (35%). Hines has shown some explosiveness and some great playmaking ability, especially in the passing game. While Mack is serviceable in the passing game, I believe Hines is one of those satellite-back types of players who will be valuable in PPR formats. This is where his ceiling could get a cap on it. To be clear, Hines, coming out of NC State, was one of my favorite late-round rookies to target for his PPR upside alone. While I do believe that Hines can put a limit on Mack's overall upside, that isn't to say that Mack can't be great. On his volume alone, they both can have nice roles in that offense.
This brings us back to our original question, 'Is Marlon Mack Legit?' In short...Yes. Mack is a legit talent and has all the opportunity in the world to take over this backfield and make it his own. He's shown to be more than just a third-down type of back and appears to have the body and physicality to handle large workloads. As someone that I saw going as late as the 9th round of redraft leagues this year, there's a chance you've been stashing him and waiting. The writing was on the wall for him to breakout this past week against the Bills, and sure enough, he did. If you've been holding on to Mack or acquired him recently, props to you. You've got someone with all the opportunity in the world to be a gamechanger for your fantasy team.
