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We've got a monster Saturday coming up with 51 FBS vs. FBS games this week. I won't get to lose money on Oklahoma, I should get to win picking against Nebraska, and UMass might actually get another win. Not that I would bet on it.
I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year.
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CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
I had a good week last week as far as taking money from the casinos, but I still barely kept above .500. Still, making the money is what really counts. We're here for the Saturday extravaganza though! It begins now!
Army at Air Force(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
A game starting at 11:30 am Eastern in the Mountain time zone? Sure, why not. Sometimes Gameday isn't all that entertaining anyway. Considering how frequently both teams run the ball, this could be over by halftime of all the noon games. I'll take Army, but I wouldn't bet this. I'll just have fun watching a throwback game since both teams run the option and run it well. I lived in Oklahoma in the mid-80s. I know what an option is supposed to look like.
Missouri at (1)Georgia(-38.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Georgia should be able to run as much as they want in this one. The Missouri defense is awful. Still, this is a ton of points. What if Georgia gets bored? What if their third string plays the whole second half? A lot can go wrong with a number like this. I'll take Georgia, but I'm lowering the bet.
(5)Ohio State(-14.5) at Nebraska
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Yeah, okay. Nebraska has made an art form of losing one-score games. I'll say they lose by one score each quarter. Give me Ohio State. They blasted Nebraska the last time that they played in Lincoln. They did the time before too. It's still the same players making the same mistakes for Nebraska. Ohio State by a couple dozen! The Buckeyes haven't scored less than 36 against Nebraska since 2011, which was the only win in this series for the Cornhuskers.
(9)Wake Forest at North Carolina(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Apparently the Tarheels have so dominated this series that no one can fathom that Wake is actually the better team this year. In fact, the Tarheels haven't won back-to-back games in this series since 2003-04. These teams combined for 112 points last season. I think that happens again, but this time I see Wake as the victors. The over/under is only 76. That feels really low as well.
Liberty at (16)Mississippi(-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I don't care how beaten up the Ole Miss receivers and Matt Corral are. How are the Flames going to move the ball on this defense when their only run game is quarterback Malik Willis? The answer: they wont. Give me Ole Miss.
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Illinois at (20)Minnesota(-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This seems a bit high since the Illini have only lost two games by more than two touchdowns. Both Wisconsin and Virginia have much better offenses than the Gophers. The bad news is that even Rutgers ran for 230 on Illinois. Give me Minnesota, I guess.
(25)Pittsburgh(-21.5) at Duke
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Wait until you see Kenny Pickett's stat line in this one. Way too low. Pitt rolls!
Louisiana Tech at UAB(-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line has tumbled and it's not all that stable. That likely is a result of the status of Austin Kendall. He should play, but how healthy will he be? Not healthy enough. Give me the Blazers.
Kansas State(-24.5) at Kansas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
As far as rivalry games go, the "Sunflower Showdown" is kind of a "soft" name for a battle like this, no? Would you believe me if I told you that the Jayhawks lead the series 65-48-5? Hey, both John Riggins and Gale Sayers played for Kansas. They were good once upon a time. Honest! Now the bad news: Kansas hasn't won in the series since 2008, and this game is played every year. They also haven't lost by less than 28 points since 2018. I don't know why, but this is a game where I feel like Kansas shows up. Give me the Jayhawks. I don't think they win, but they might make it interesting like they did against Oklahoma.
SMU(-4.5) at Memphis
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm not sure why the bottom has fallen out of this line. I'm thinking that Vegas is handicapping this like Seth Henigan will play. While that will make a difference, I think the Ponies get back on track here. They played a bad game in Houston and still had a chance to win it. Give me SMU.
Georgia Tech at Miami(FL)(-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
We have seen what Miami can be with a guy like Tyler Van Dyke. The Hurricanes likely wont lose again. They may make it interesting since they still have some defensive lapses, but the offense is just hitting their stride. Give me the Canes.
Appalachian State(-21.5) at Arkansas State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Ouch! The Red Wolves have been really, really horrible of late. I hate the half, but this should still be an easy win for the Mountaineers.
North Texas(-4.5) at Southern Mississippi
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Well, if the Eagles are ever going to get going this year, this would be the place. Since North Texas beat Rice in Houston last week, I don't really think it happens. Give me the Mean Green.
Temple at East Carolina(-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is pretty unstable as well, so shop around. It's under two touchdowns in one place. I don't think it should be. Give me the Pirates.
Louisiana-Monroe at Texas State(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I really don't think so. Yes, the Bobcats have been better at home, but the Warhawks have actual victories, not just moral victories. I see one of those actual victories here. Give me Monroe. They beat both Liberty and South Alabama within the last month.
California(-12.5) at Arizona
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Well, considering Cal beat Oregon State by more than this, it feels like easy money. USC is not playing well and shouldn't be treated like a good team. I'm lowering the bet because I don't trust Cal, but they should run off with this one.
(3)Michigan State(-2.5) at Purdue
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
WAY too low. Purdue has been getting carved up by lesser backs than Kenneth Walker III. Sparty by double digits!
Tulsa at (6)Cincinnati(-22.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is a little high with the way Cincinnati has been playing, but it's not like Tulsa is setting the world afire either. Give me the Bearcats at home.
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Navy excels at drives that take more than half a quarter. Just how many possessions will the Irish get here? Judging by how efficient (or lack thereof) they have been with offensive possessions this year, there's no way Notre Dame covers this. Give me Navy.
(11)Oklahoma State(-3.5) at West Virginia
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels low, even in Morgantown. The Cowboys lost in Ames, but Iowa State is still better than West Virginia. I have a feeling they're quite a bit better. Give me Oklahoma State by at least a touchdown.
(12)Baylor(-6.5) at TCU
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This is laughable. The Toadies have lost the last three games by a combined 52 points. At least two of those teams aren't the caliber of Baylor. Baylor wins BIG!
(13)Auburn at (14)Texas A&M(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Right now Auburn feels like the better team. Their run defense has been good and Bo Nix has been impressive on the road this year. That's a stark contrast to last year. I still don't think A&M can throw the ball well enough to win in that manner. If Haynes King makes his return though, I may rethink this. As it stands now, give me Auburn.
(21)Wisconsin(-12.5) at Rutgers
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This is too low. The emergence of Braelon Allen along with Chez Mellusi makes the Badgers one of the better running teams in the country. Give me Wisconsin.
Rice at Charlotte(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I thought Rice was getting better, but it was mostly a mirage. You know what wasn't? Charlotte beating Duke. Pass defense is Charlotte's bugaboo, but the Owls can't throw well enough to take advantage of it. Give me Charlotte.
Middle Tennessee State at Western Kentucky(-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The new-look Blue Raiders might be able to hang around, but I doubt it. Bailey Zappe gets back over 400 here. Give me the Hilltoppers.
Penn State(-10.5) at Maryland
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't know about that half. Penn State is better with Sean Clifford back at full strength. I'm not entirely sure that I trust that Maryland can run the ball well enough. I'll take Penn State, but that half bugs me.
South Alabama at Troy(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
With the way that South Carolina transfer Jake Bentley has been playing for the Jaguars, I think I like them outright. Troy beating Appalachian State seems to be the outlier right now. Give me the Jags, but I'm not confident enough to bet it.
Colorado State(-3.5) at Wyoming
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Cowboys looked better last week, but it's a long road back when you lose to New Mexico. I'll take the Rams.
(17)Mississippi State at Arkansas(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I like Arkansas, but I think they are going to have some problems with this offense. Still, I'm not sure I see Will Rogers going into Fayetteville and taking this one. I expect this to be entertaining, but honestly, Arkansas has better wins and better losses. Give me the Piggies.
(19)North Carolina State(-2.5) at Florida State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Seminoles defense might have played their best game of the season last week against Clemson and Jordan Travis played one of his better games as well. However, the North Carolina State offense is a lot better than Clemson right now. I still like the Wolfpack here.
Tulane at Central Florida(-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Do we all of the sudden trust the Knights again? Temple has made a lot of teams look good lately. The Green Wave have had a rough go of it lately, but this still feels a little high. I'm taking Tulane.
Utah State(-18.5) at New Mexico State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Utah State should be a safe pick. New Mexico State has already played their quota of one good game this year. I'll take the Utah version of the Aggies.
Marshall(-1.5) at Florida Atlantic
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Owls may not be the better team, but they are definitely the more consistent. Give me FAU.
Coastal Carolina(-19.5) at Georgia Southern
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Ugh....I don't trust the CCU defense all that much, but I don't trust the Eagles offense at all. Give me the surfer dudes.
LSU at (2)Alabama(-29.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line has crept up almost five points. I get it. Alabama is hitting their stride and LSU is a team without an identity. I'll take the Tide.
Tennessee at (18)Kentucky(EVEN)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm still a believer in the Kentucky defense. The offense was kind of a wreck last week. The Wildcats should be able to get some space on the ground in this one, which opens up the whole offense. The Wildcats are money in Lexington.
(22)Iowa(-11.5) at Northwestern
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'll take teams that should never be favored by double digits, Alex. Especially on the road. What the hell is this? I know that Northwestern has had some issues on defense, but Iowa's defense has been exposed by both Purdue and Wisconsin and their offense is still slower than me running the mile. Give me Northwestern. They probably wont win, but they're not losing by double digits to Iowa at home either.
Boise State at (23)Fresno State(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The only question that we really need to ask is: will Boise be able to run the ball? That has been their key to victory over the last couple of years. Fresno has been decent defensively, but they have also played UConn and Cal Poly-San Luis Obispo. That pads the stats a little. I'll take Fresno at home. I don't think Boise will get much running room.
Old Dominion(-2.5) at Florida International
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I know the Monarchs got their first FBS win since 2018 last week, but asking them to win another – on the road, no less – seems a pretty tall order. I'll take the Bortenschlagers.
Oregon State(-10.5) at Colorado
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Beavers burned me last week, but the Ralphies are still a lousy team. Give me Oregon State.
UNLV at New Mexico(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Akron, UMass, Old Dominion, and Kansas all have wins this year. Is UNLV next? I expect a big game from Charles Williams, so I'll say yes. Give me the Rebels.
(4)Oregon(-6.5) at Washington
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Oregon's defense has been a mess, but the Washington offense isn't good enough to take advantage. A lower scoring game is going to favor the Huskies, but I just don't see them winning this. Give me Oregon.
Indiana at (7)Michigan(-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Poor Indiana. Five of their eight opponents were ranked in the top ten when they played them. Three of them are still there, including two in the top five. It doesn't get any easier here. Give me Michigan. The Hoosiers are just beaten up right now.
Florida(-18.5) at South Carolina
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
That's a lot of points and it's on the road. I really don't trust Florida right now. Give me the Gamecocks. They're not winning this, but I think they keep it a little closer than this.
Clemson(-3.5) at Louisville
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Louisville was absolutely dominated by the North Carolina State defense last week and Clemson's defense is a lot better than that. I don't trust the Clemson offense, but a healthy Will Shipley goes a long ways towards easing my concerns. This looks a little low. Give me Clemson.
Texas at Iowa State(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Two words: Breece Hall. He might run for 200+ on Texas. Give me the Cyclones.
Houston(-13.5) at South Florida
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This is exactly the kind of game that Houston would come up flat in, especially after the big win over SMU and how they won it. The status of Timmy McClain is important, but I don't see USF hanging around. I'll take Houston.
San Jose State at Nevada(-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
There's a lot of play in this line as well. The Spartans defense is good, but they also wont hang around with Nick Nash as quarterback. It would be a tall order with Nick Starkel in there. I'll take the Wolf Pack.
UTSA(-11.5) at UTEP
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This one is slowly creeping upwards. Those bullies on the committee took away UTSA's ranking, but they're still ranked in my mind. UTEP has a habit of hanging around though, even when most think they shouldn't. This is a tough one. Both have made me some money this year. Give me the Roadrunners, but I'm torn.
USC at Arizona State(-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
We shouldn't be shocked by the play in this line either. However, USC was a bumbling mess anyway and now they have a quarterback controversy and Drake London is out. Arizona State wins big here!
(24)San Diego State(-7.5) at Hawaii
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Aztecs should win this, but weird things happen on the islands. Give me SDSU, but I wouldn't touch this.
The 14 one-point picks is a season high. I ended up a little lighter on the threes with only 13 this week. The 23 twos are about average as are the four four-point bets. I tied a season-high five five max bets this week. I'm throwing that in a parlay. I feel good about them this week, but I usually do. Good luck out there!
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