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We go from the largest betting week of college football to one of the smallest. We only have nine conference championship games now. Three of them are played on Friday with the other six happening on Saturday. Those will all be in one post this week.
The largest college football betting week of the season and the results of it are going to stand alone this week. I feel like I had a pretty good week with a couple of exceptions. I was heavy on underdogs last week and I feel like that worked out for me.
Did I get myself out of the massive November hole that I dug? That's why I'm here. For better or for worse, I give full transparency on my picks. You deserve to know what you're getting into.
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CFB Betting Picks - Week 14 2024 Results
I promised transparency and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but will admit when I am. Why listen to someone who won't admit the good or the bad? This year's results will be tracked on this sheet. I have tabs for previous seasons on there and will update the all-time stats on the 2024 tab when I get caught up.
Winners against the spread will be in BOLD. My result will follow.
Toledo (-8.5) at Akron: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm not going to sit here and say that I expected an outright Akron win, but I'm not surprised either. I placed a small wager on the Akron money line. This is not the Toledo team that we're used to.
Kent State at Buffalo (-21.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Wait...I picked Kent? What the hell is wrong with me?
Memphis at (17) Tulane (-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
As with anything, if you ride long enough, you'll get bucked off. This was one of the biggest games in Tulane's modern history and they did not show up.
Oregon State at (11) Boise State (-18.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It wasn't for lack of trying. Ashton Jeanty carried the ball 37 times in his final Heisman push.
Oklahoma State at (25) Colorado (-16.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This was a statement by Colorado. It was too little too late, but this also shows something for NFL scouts sniffing around this team. Colorado didn't roll over. They responded to the loss and demolished Oklahoma State.
Minnesota at Wisconsin (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Not only did Minnesota reclaim the axe, but they also kept Wisconsin from making a bowl game. As if winning the rivalry game and trophy weren't enough of a prize...
Miami (OH) at Bowling Green (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Bowling Green might have won three games without Harold Fannin Jr. Maybe.
Ball State at Ohio (-16.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This game made you realize how much of an impact Justin Bowick had in his four games.
Navy at East Carolina (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Navy is not struggling anymore. That loss to Navy took it out of them for a couple of weeks though.
Mississippi State at (14) Mississippi (-25.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was easy money. After the first quarter, the Mississippi defense did a great job to get rid of the upset-minded Bulldogs.
Liberty (-2.5) at Sam Houston: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Put Sam Houston on the list of teams that a mid-tier Power 4 team won't want to play in a bowl game. That defense is legit. Their improvement from last year is impressive.
Utah State at Colorado State (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have flipped on this when I heard that Bryson Barnes was starting. He's going to be fun to watch next year.
Texas State (-1.5) at South Alabama: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Much as I expected, this was one of the best games on Friday. At least the best game involving offenses that could move the ball.
Stanford at San Jose State (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Walker Eget is going to be very good at some middle-tier Power 4 school next year. I doubt he stays at San Jose.
Georgia Tech at (7) Georgia (-19.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is 100% targeting.
Georgia Tech is getting screwed over.
— The Sammooo! Show (@TheSammoooShow5) November 30, 2024
I will preface this by saying that I hope what I'm about to say is not true. I hope that college football isn't this corrupt, but there is damning evidence week after week after week after week of the 2024 season. The officials are tipping the scales in favor of teams that can make their conference the most money.
If Georgia loses this game (and if that targeting penalty was correctly called, they might have in regulation), Tennessee faces Texas in the SEC Championship. Tennessee isn't as big of a draw as Georgia. Having Georgia play in Atlanta makes a ton of sense. They can sell tickets for more.
Beyond that, if three-loss Georgia is sitting at home with Alabama, Mississippi, and South Carolina, they get left out of the playoff. If head-to-head is as important as the committee claims, Georgia is out for losing to both Alabama and Mississippi. That means two consecutive playoffs without Georgia.
Why is that a big deal? Because the Alabama dynasty is already on life support (with ESPN pounding Bama's chest like never before trying to keep it alive). The SEC wants a new dynasty. It makes sense that it's Georgia. You know ESPN will do whatever its cash cow wants.
Again, if Georgia (rightfully) loses this game, they're out of a 12-team playoff. Think of the implications of that! It's why the committee is propping up Bama with two unforgivable losses.
I don't want to believe this is true, but there is glaring evidence throughout the season of the SEC propping up first LSU, then Alabama, then Georgia. It looked like the ACC was propping up Miami. Optics are everything, especially when most college football fans believe the fix is in. It's hard to refute that with the blatant missed calls and leaving Alabama in the playoff.
Since I'm ranting anyway, a series of two-point conversion plays is no way to decide a football game. If 25 yards is too much, then move it to the 10-yard line after two overtimes. At least make them run more than one play. The fans didn't want the best overtime rules in any sport changed in the first place. At least give us part of it back!
Nebraska at Iowa (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Of course, Iowa wins on a last-second field goal. That's what they do in this series. That's four times in the last seven years.
Utah at Central Florida (-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Vegas loved Central Florida down the stretch. I loved taking Vegas's money down the stretch betting the other team's money line against Central Florida. I will admit that RJ Harvey deserved better than this disaster of a year.
Michigan at (2) Ohio State (-19.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Ohio State's 10 points in a loss to Michigan are the fewest the Buckeyes have scored in a regular-season game since a 24-6 loss to Miami Sept. 17, 2011, when Luke Fickell was interim head coach. pic.twitter.com/b99yNjXp1w
— Clayton Sayfie (@CSayf23) November 30, 2024
I underestimated just how damaged Ohio State is by this series. It's a mental thing by now. It has to be, right? The offensive game plan was terrible. The defense couldn't stop the run. What's the point in paying Will Howard if you don't trust him?
This problem is deeper than Ryan Day, and it's hard to say that he should be fired. He beats nearly everyone but Michigan. It wasn't long ago that Michigan had a coach who beat everyone but Ohio State. How did that turn out?
Tempers flare when Michigan tries to plant their flag on the Buckeye logo pic.twitter.com/ulT1Rj2Wd3
— Heavens! (@HeavensFX) November 30, 2024
In a rivalry this heated, it's not surprising that a fight broke out. I don't have a problem with it. I have a problem with the pepper spray. However, the most offensive thing was that Ohio State had no fight in them until AFTER the game. That's a coaching thing, right?
(8) Tennessee (-10.5) at Vanderbilt: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was a tough one for Vandy. They were up 14 points before two minutes were gone in the game and they still managed to lose.
(15) South Carolina at (12) Clemson (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
South Carolina beats a ranked team on the road and only moved up one spot in the rankings. They close the season with six consecutive wins -- three of which were against ranked teams. I thought the point of the expanded playoff was to let the hot teams in. That's what they told us with Arizona last year.
The system is not only not any better, but it's even more broken than it already was. College football killed the regular season for no reason (it didn't feel like it this year, but the novelty will wear off). They took the best product in sports out in the woods and shot it.
All we have now is a bunch of coaches and athletic directors campaigning about why they should be in. At least in previous years, it was only one or two. Now there are several.
(23) Illinois (-7.5) at Northwestern: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
We can argue over whether or not Illinois should be ranked another time. In the grand scheme of things, it is just propping up Penn State for when they lose to Oregon...
Louisville (-3.5) at Kentucky: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Well...what do we have here? An ACC team beating an SEC team? I thought the SEC was so much better than everyone else. To put it in perspective, Louisville destroyed a Kentucky team that beat Mississippi -- a team wanting a playoff spot -- for its only conference win.
Connecticut (-10.5) at Massachusetts: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Do moral victories still count for UMass? How long have they been in FBS? It seems ridiculous considering the immediate success of programs like Liberty, Jacksonville State, James Madison, and Sam Houston, doesn't it?
Duke (-4.5) at Wake Forest: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
In all its glory. You always have to cover 8! pic.twitter.com/Yi8P1ITUIz
— Duke Football (@DukeFOOTBALL) November 30, 2024
It took a touchdown pass on the last play of the game, but a win is a win.
Kansas (-1.5) at Baylor: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I guess Baylor doesn't like fairy-tale endings. This was a demolition of one of the hottest teams in college football right now.
West Virginia at Texas Tech (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Big 12 may not be as top-heavy as the Big Ten, but it's hard to say they aren't as good top-to-bottom. The Big 12 has more teams with eight wins (eight) than the Big Ten (six)...with two fewer teams in the conference. The Big 12 also didn't have a team with 10 losses. The almighty SEC and Big Ten can't claim the same.
Louisiana (-9.5) at Louisiana-Monroe: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Monroe's win over James Madison really messed with my head for the rest of the season...
UTSA at Army (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Jeff Traylor said that UTSA was going to go for the win, and they did, but that missed fourth down in Army territory in the fourth quarter cost them the game.
North Texas (-11.5) at Temple: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Mean Green defense held Temple to 17 points and the offense still didn't cover.
Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Oh well. There's a reason I didn't bet on this.
Middle Tennessee State at Florida International (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Holden Willis went out in style in the loss. Eric Rivers showed out for his next team, whoever that may be.
Coastal Carolina (-1.5) at Georgia State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Coastal Carolina gets that elusive sixth win, but if too many teams are bowl-eligible, their 3-5 record in the Sun Belt will cost them an invite.
Southern Mississippi at Troy (-17.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have gone higher on this one. It almost seemed too easy, so I didn't trust it.
South Florida (-5.5) at Rice: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
E.J. Warner looked great. Bryce Archie had fans clamoring for Byrum Brown again.
Pittsburgh at Boston College (-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The last month reminded Pitt fans why they moved on from Nate Yarnell...and he was still much better than he was last year.
Old Dominion (-4.5) at Arkansas State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The weird part about this is Old Dominion won't make it to a bowl. They were one of the toughest outs in the Sun Belt over the last half of the season, but still only won five games.
Maryland at (4) Penn State (-24.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was not high. Maryland's loss to Northwestern on a Friday night derailed their season. They lost seven of the last eight games.
(5) Notre Dame (-7.5) at USC: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Two big defensive plays by Notre Dame down the stretch secured the cover.
(6) Miami (FL) (-10.5) at Syracuse: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Did Miami deserve to drop six spots for losing to a nine-win team on the road? Maybe not, but it only highlights the fact that Miami was overrated to begin with. This team has lived dangerously all season and is very lucky to only have two losses. I do think blowing a 21-point lead was a factor in this freefall as well.
California at (9) SMU (-13.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was a statement by SMU. You know...just in case they lose the ACC Championship game.
Auburn at (13) Alabama (-11.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
There's a reason that I didn't bet on this. In retrospect, I should have known better.
(16) Arizona State (-8.5) at Arizona: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I expected a little more of a fight from Arizona. Unfortunately, the Noah Fifita-Tetairoa McMillan era is over in Tucson. Fifita is transferring out. McMillan is bound for the NFL. Hey, at least we got this little gem.
lol ? lol ? even the mascots are getting into rivalry week…. Nice head blows pic.twitter.com/6ENlZCIkrP
— ryancorcoran (@ryancorcoran65) December 1, 2024
Arkansas at (21) Missouri (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It took a big fourth quarter for Missouri to pull this one out in Luther Burden III's swan song.
Rutgers at Michigan State (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I bet a hell of a lot more than five on this game at the betting window. This was too easy!
Fresno State at UCLA (-8.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
UCLA regressed down the stretch. Not as badly as they had played earlier in the season, but the offense stalled out again.
North Carolina State at North Carolina (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was a sad but somehow fitting end to the Mack Brown era at Carolina. Omarion Hampton went out in style, at least.
Ohio State vs Michigan= fight
Mizzou vs Arkansas = fight
Alabama vs Auburn= fight
USC vs Notre Dame= fight
Arizona- Arizona State (mascots) fight
North Carolina vs NC State= fightBEST RIVALRY WEEK EVER
— Rudy GIII (@RudyGIII) December 1, 2024
Central Michigan at Northern Illinois (-12.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
How this abomination was on TV while Bowling Green wasn't, I'll never know. Sometimes ESPN doesn't make any sense.
UAB at Charlotte (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
You know my four-point bets are cursed when Charlotte wins by two points and not three...
Florida Atlantic at Tulsa (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I should have maxed this one out and then maxed it out again. I knew this line was bogus.
Jacksonville State at Western Kentucky (-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This game was everything we expected. I don't even care that I missed the bet!
Kennesaw State at Louisiana Tech (-12.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The magic is over for the Owls. LA Tech played this game as if it were their bowl game (it was).
UTEP at New Mexico State (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
UTEP really had no business winning this game.
TCU (-3.5) at Cincinnati: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This was a little too close for comfort.
Appalachian State at Georgia Southern (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
App State ended up missing out on a bowl game because of the game washed out by Hurricane Helene. They needed this win.
Wyoming at Washington State (-17.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I didn't expect an outright loss, but I'm not surprised either. Washington State needs someone else to run the ball besides John Mateer.
Purdue at (10) Indiana (-28.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That's making a statement. Indiana did what Notre Dame did: beat the teams they should beat and beat them convincingly (with one minor exception for the Irish). Running up the score was necessary for the Hoosiers. They know their schedule is soft.
Oklahoma at LSU (-5.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
#LSU LB Whit Weeks chose violence vs. Jackson Arnold and Oklahoma tonight in Death Valley.
15 tackles
9 solo tackles
2 TFL
1 Sack
1 QBH
1 Forced Fumble@BengalTigerOn3: https://t.co/IxzO3Z4Uukpic.twitter.com/gYKJ25fkMa— Shea Dixon (@Sheadixon) December 1, 2024
For the life of me, I can't figure out how Oklahoma can look like a solid team against Alabama (and in the first half of this one), then turn around and get smoked in the second half. Oklahoma's kneel-downs with two timeouts at the end of the first half hurt the team. They should have at least tried to score.
I don't know where Oklahoma goes from here, but no one should be shocked that Jackson Arnold is transferring. I would too if I were him. I really hope that Michael Hawkins Jr. is the answer...
Florida (-16.5) at Florida State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I will say this: Florida State's defense at least played with pride for the last month or so. That offense was a complete and total disaster with and without D.J. Uiagalelei.
Washington at (1) Oregon (-18.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
So, Jedd Fisch ruined Arizona for this, huh? Totally not worth it.
(3) Texas (-5.5) at (20) Texas A&M: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
A&M's defense did a really good job in the second half, but Texas controlled this game throughout. The Aggies couldn't stop the run at all.
(24) Kansas State at (18) Iowa State (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It's wheat. It's corn. It's Abu Sama III. It's Avery Johnson. It's the first-ever 10-win season for Iowa State. If you don't love Farmageddon, you don't have a pulse.
AMES, IOWA pic.twitter.com/752Qkk4pzG
— Iowa State Football (@CycloneFB) December 1, 2024
Nevada at (22) UNLV (-17.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
UNLV gets a rematch with Boise, but can they only play spoiler? Will the committee let UNLV in over Army if Army wins the American?
Virginia at Virginia Tech (-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Kyron who? William Watson III (aka Pop) shined in his first start for the Hokies. It likely won't be his last.
Marshall at James Madison (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
That was a hell of a finish for Marshall. Winning two road games against two of the tougher teams in the conference to make the conference championship game is pretty impressive. Especially considering James Madison dominated the stat sheet.
Houston at (19) BYU (-12.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
That stupid half. If Houston hadn't made that two-point conversion...
Air Force (-3.5) at San Diego State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I knew better...
New Mexico (-2.5) at Hawaii: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
World, meet Micah Alejado. Well...if only you could find this game on TV...
College Football Betting Season Results
I was finally back over .500 with a 35-32 week. I bombed the one-point bets, but that's what's supposed to happen. My maximum bets worked out. Some of the rest did not. Overall, I think I made some points back this week.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 1-6 (32-44) = -12
2. 15-15 (162-142) = 40
3. 16-6 (110-123) = -39
4. 0-5 (40-39) = 4
5. 3-0 (22-28) = -30
I made back 20 points this week, but I'm still down 37 points on the season. My goal of 52% is unattainable. I'm just hoping to get back to zero on both points and regular picks.
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