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We are down to 62 games this week with 58 today. That means more FBS vs. FBS matchups! We have 49 of those today making this the most busy Saturday of picks so far this season. Are you ready?
I'm only picking FBS vs. FBS games because even if casinos have a line on the FBS vs. FCS matchups, the spreads are wild enough to drive us away. Well ... most of us. I'll pick my 49 games today and be happy. I'm off to a good start so far. Let's keep it up!
I'm up 25 betting points on the casinos in two-plus weeks this year. Let's make some more money! There are some good spots this week!
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 3 (9/14/24)
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
(4) Alabama (-16.5) at Wisconsin
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Alabama is a 15.5 point favorite vs. Wisconsin in Camp Randall this weekend.
Per our friends at @areweranked, 48% of bets and 96% of the total money is on Alabama.
(pic via @AlabamaFTBL) pic.twitter.com/RtIto87Pci— Sidelines - Bama (@SSN_Alabama) September 10, 2024
As you can see, the line is already creeping upward because of the massive amount of money coming in on Alabama. What really stands out is the 52% of bets coming in on the Badgers but only 4% of the money. That's just people betting small amounts try to make a few bucks.
Wisconsin was predictably vanilla against South Dakota, but is that really their identity this year? This is a true air-raid offense, meaning Wisconsin still likes to run the ball to open up the field.
If Bama comes out sluggish, they aren't covering this. I know that USF is better than many think, but that defense was a mess last year and it took the Tide 3.5 quarters to get going. That's why I'm keeping the bet down. I still like Bama, but I'm nervous about it.
(13) Oklahoma State (-18.5) at Tulsa
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Oklahoma State beat a team that hadn't lost in three years and beat an SEC school. I have a feeling that Arkansas is MUCH better than last year. Give me the Pokes.
(16) LSU (-6.5) at South Carolina
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Garrett Nussmeier is expected to play, which is great news for the Tigers. Many are betting on the Cocks after dominating Kentucky in Lexington -- another team that has struggled to run the ball. I like South Carolina in this one. They may not win outright, but it's staying within a touchdown.
Arkansas State at (17) Michigan (-23.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I know that Arkansas State is a shadow of last year's team, but can Michigan's offense actually cover this? Considering they beat a solid Fresno team by this, probably. Give me Michigan.
Central Michigan at Illinois (-18.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Joe Labas threw five interceptions last week against Florida International. What do you think the Illini defense will do to him? You know...the same Illini defense that harassed Jalon Daniels into the worst game of his career. Illinois ROLLS!
Memphis at Florida State (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Memphis is more than capable of winning this, but I have this feeling that FSU shows up. I'm lowering the bet in case they do.
Louisiana Tech at North Carolina State (-21.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I don't like anything about this line. The Pack struggled against Western Carolina for about three quarters and got slaughtered by Tennessee. Tech struggled against Nicholls State. I have zero interest in betting on this. Give me Tech, but I'm not touching it.
Cincinnati (-3.5) at Miami (OH)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
We have one of the first-named rivalries of the year with the Battle For The Victory Bell. This line is up almost two points so far, which is a bit surprising. Brendan Sorsby has played well for the Bearcats, but Miami's defense is good. I'll say this stays within three points in Oxford. Give me the Redhawks.
North Texas at Texas Tech (-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't know about this one. Texas Tech got smashed by Wazzu and almost lost to Abilene Christian. Give me the Mean Green.
(24) Boston College at (6) Missouri (-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
You guys know that I like this Missouri team, but that's a big number. Boston College is a solid team. I'll take the Eagles. They won't win, but I'll say this stays between 10-14 points.
Massachusetts at Buffalo (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Jacqez Barksdale should cover this on his own. I'll take the Bulls.
Coastal Carolina (-18.5) at Temple
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wow, that's a big number, but Temple is bad. Give me CCU.
(9) Oregon (-16.5) at Oregon State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Let's see...this is the not-so-Civil-War with Little Brother mad as hell that Duck U. left them behind for all the money in the Big Ten (18). Oregon didn't come close to covering Idaho and should have lost to Boise State. This is a joke, right? This game is going to be a lot closer than 17 points. I'll take the Beavers.
This Civil War game is scary similar to 2022. Oregon ranked 9th. UOs defense is ok and will be a challenge at first. UOs offensive line is sus at best. OSU has a 2 headed dog in the RB room. OSUs defense will only get better as the game progresses.
This is gonna be fun!
— Mr. Beavv (@MrBeavv) September 9, 2024
For those of you who don't remember, Oregon State beat the ninth-ranked Ducks in Corvallis 38-34 in 2022.
Ball State at (10) Miami (FL) (-36.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Ehh...Miami is certainly capable of covering this, but I won't be lining up at the window to bet on it. Give me Miami, but I'm likely leaving this alone.
Tulane at (15) Oklahoma (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Good Lord...this is WAY too many. We almost lost to Houston last week. Tulane nearly beat a good Kansas State team. I'll ride the Wave. They may not win, but this is another one that's going to be too close for comfort.
(18) Notre Dame (-9.5) at Purdue
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This line is down three points already. I took it at 10.5 and I feel a lot better with it there. Northern Illinois exposed a lot of problems for the Irish and Purdue can exploit most of them. I'll take the Boilers.
Texas A&M (-3.5) at Florida
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I don't know about this. The Aggies aren't much better off than the Gators and have lost their last 10 road games. CHOMP!
Nevada at Minnesota (-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Nevada played sloppy in the loss last week. If they do so again in Minneapolis, they'll get covered in the first half. This feels high though. The Minnesota offense is not explosive. These are two run-first teams that excel at ball control. I'll take the Pack. They won't win, but Minnesota by closer to 14 than 20.
Washington State at Washington (-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This is more like the line I was expecting in the Civil War. The Apple Cup should be a pretty good game. The bottom has already fallen out of this line. It's down four points and is down to -4 in a couple of spots.
I do like Washington State to keep this close. I'll take the Cougs, but I'm not betting on this. I'm just going to enjoy watching all three of the major rivalries on at the same time!
West Virginia (-1.5) at Pittsburgh
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The ending of the Backyard Brawl back in 2022 was ELECTRIC ⚡️ pic.twitter.com/A41FJhSE6H
— CFB Kings (@CFBKings) September 11, 2024
As I said in Pick Em...Pitt isn't losing the Backyard Brawl at home.
Troy at Iowa (-22.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Troy is not a good team but Iowa isn't built to cover spreads like this. That said, I'm not sure Troy scores. I'll take Iowa.
Appalachian State (-1.5) at East Carolina
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is going to be a fun game. Thank you, oh great college football lords at ESPN, for putting this on regular cable. Give me App State.
UAB at Arkansas (-23.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
UAB got smoked by Louisiana-Monroe last week. This isn't going to be pretty either. Woo Pig!
(12) Utah (-18.5) at Utah State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Utah QB Cam Rising "unlikely" to play Saturday at Utah State, sources told @ActionNetworkHQ. Rising suffered a finger injury on his throwing hand last week, but nothing is broken & he's expected to return next week vs. Oklahoma State, source said
— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) September 12, 2024
Rumors are swirling that Cam Rising is out. I tend to think he will be with conference play starting next week. There's no way the Utes cover without him. I'll take the Aggies.
Connecticut at Duke (-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Yeah...UConn isn't there yet. I'll take Duke.
Virginia Tech (-14.5) at Old Dominion
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Can Kyron Drones quit bumming it up long enough to cover this? I hope so. It's time. Give me Tech.
Florida International at Florida Atlantic (-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I know this is in Boca, but the line feels off. Give me FIU.
UTEP at Liberty (-23.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I believe it. UTEP got poached by Southern Utah last week. Flame on!
(5) Mississippi (-22.5) at Wake Forest
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Lost in the fact that Ole Miss might have the most explosive offense in football is how well the defense has played. I'll take Ole Miss.
UTSA at (2) Texas (-35.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Well, considering Texas State covered this against the Roadrunners last week, this looks low. Give me Bevo.
Vanderbilt (-10.5) at Georgia State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Diego Pavia makes Vandy a different team, but they haven't had to hit the road yet. I don't like that half at all. It's causing me to lower the bet.
Jacksonville State at Eastern Michigan (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This is going to be fun to watch, but not fun to bet. I'll take the Eagles, but I'm not touching this.
Kennesaw State at San Jose State (-19.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Spartans are better than I thought they would be and Kennesaw is worse. Give me SJSU.
Western Kentucky (-7.5) at Middle Tennessee State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Both teams got smoked by SEC teams, so that doesn't mean much. Still...this Hilltoppers managed to look better. Give me WKU.
Hawaii at Sam Houston (-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is interesting. Can the Bearkats handle the run-and-shoot? We'll find out! My instincts say no. Give me Hawaii.
South Florida (-11.5) at Southern Mississippi
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Last week is going to sting for the Bulls, but they are equipped to dominate the AAC. Give me USF.
(1) Georgia (-23.5) at Kentucky
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is just a minor speed bump for UGA.
New Mexico at Auburn (-28.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is too many. I'll take the Lobos.
Toledo at Mississippi State (-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Arizona State handled the Bulldogs by running the ball. The only problem is Toledo can't run the ball. Bulldogs roll!
Indiana (-3.5) at UCLA
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Honestly, the half isn't that much of a deterrent. Curt Cignetti equipped himself to hit the ground running. The Deshaun Foster/Eric Bieniemy marriage is off to a rocky start. Give me the Hoosiers.
Air Force at Baylor (-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Baylor looked good when Rising was out, but they were going to get blown out with him in. I'll take Baylor, but I have no confidence in it.
Colorado (-7.5) at Colorado State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Colorado's offensive line and defense aren't any better than they were last year. Somehow, Colorado still covered this last year in double overtime. I'll take Colorado, but I'm more likely to enjoy the game than to bet on it. You never know how much of a Colorado line is just hype.
Central Florida at TCU (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
There's almost no juice on the UCF money line, which is surprising to me. What has TCU shown that says they can stop the UCF attack? I like the Knights straight up.
Kent State at (7) Tennessee (-49.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Well...Kent did just lose to St. Francis. The Vols could cover this with their backups. I'll take Tennessee.
Maryland (-2.5) at Virginia
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I was shocked that much of the Pick Em crowd is backing the Hoos. This is going to be a fun game. We get two underrated receivers in Malachi Fields and Tai Felton. This will be Roman Hemby's game though. Give me Maryland.
Rice at Houston (-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
4.5? Puh-leez. Houston by at least triple that!
BYU (-10.5) at Wyoming
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Considering the Cowboys lost at home to Idaho, this looks low. Give me BYU.
San Diego State at California (-18.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Cal has to be considered a dark horse in the ACC. Fernando Mendoza and Jaydn Ott are a lot of fun to watch. The SDSU defense will hold up, but once again, the offense might not score. Give me Cal.
New Mexico State at Fresno State (-19.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Fresno is capable of covering this. I'll take the Bulldogs.
I only maxed out three of the 52 bets this week, but I put in a season-high six on the four-point line. The 18 three-pointers are also a season-high. I'm still sitting with 20 two-point bets and five minimum bets. Good luck out there!
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