Booms and Busts - Fantasy Football Starts and Sits for Week 16 Lineups Include Kyler Murray, Jakobi Meyers, Jerry Jeudy

Dave's fantasy football start 'em and sit 'em booms and busts for Week 16 of 2024. Sneaky starts that may boom, and typical starters that will disappoint.

Congratulations on advancing to the semifinals of your fantasy football league! You are now just one win away from a shot at your league’s ultimate glory. The stakes have never been higher, and each start/sit decision faces more scrutiny than ever before. We will do our best to identify several plays that could be the difference in winning or losing your matchup.

To quickly recap last week, we correctly identified Rico Dowdle as a boom call. He ran for a career-high 149 rushing yards and finished Week 15 as the RB13. We also nailed Russell Wilson as a bust pick, and he finished the week as the QB25. Our big miss, though, was labeling DeVonta Smith as a bust. Saquon Barkley had arguably his worst game of the year, and the Philadelphia passing game came to life against a strong Steelers defense. Smith would have his best game of the season and catch 11 passes for 109 yards and a touchdown. Benching Smith cost me a spot in the semifinals in one league, but so is life in the wilds of fantasy football. All we can do now is turn our attention to Week 16 and focus on reaching the title game.

Make sure you’re following RotoBaller on X and check out RotoBaller.com for all your fantasy football needs. Let’s get into our boom/bust picks for Week 16 of the 2024 NFL season.

Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.

Week 16 Fantasy Football Booms

Kyler Murray - QB, Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers

Murray hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire lately. He has a single QB1 finish in his last four games. However, this week presents the perfect opportunity for Murray to get rolling.

The Panthers have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this year, per Fantasy Football Today. They’ve also allowed the 10th-most rushing yards to quarterbacks as well, so this matchup sets up very nicely for Murray’s dual-threat ability.

Kyler Murray COOKIN the New York Jets with his SECOND rushing touchdown! pic.twitter.com/X4QvMKZhB9

— PHNX Cardinals (@PHNX_Cardinals) November 10, 2024

Except for last week, Carolina has played much better recently. It could push Arizona in this and force the Cardinals to play the entire game. That would be great news for Murray’s owners and would mean plenty of opportunities to score points.

Murray has been a bit underwhelming this year, but now’s not the time for gamers to shy away. Start him with confidence as we could see a ceiling game from Arizona’s signal-caller.

Jakobi Meyers - WR, Las Vegas Raiders vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Meyers hasn’t finished as a top-24 receiver in any of his last three games, but the targets have still been there. He now gets a date against the porous Jacksonville Jaguars defense. Jacksonville ranks dead last in defensive passing DVOA, per FTN Fantasy, and allows the third-most PPR points per game to opposing receivers.

It looks as though Aidan O'Connell is set to return as Las Vegas’ starting quarterback. That would be good news as O’Connell is a better option than Desmond Ridder. Gamers should fire up Meyers as a strong WR2 or flex play, especially in PPR formats. It’s a great matchup, he offers a safe floor, and if we get the right game script, we could see a spike game from Meyers.

Jayden Reed - WR, Green Bay Packers vs. New Orleans Saints

The Packers wide receivers have arguably been the most frustrating assets to own in fantasy football this year. They are a talented, but crowded, bunch and it’s been hard to predict who will produce every week. However, this game sets up well for Green Bay’s sophomore receiver.

The Saints secondary has been a mess since trading cornerback Marshon Lattimore to the Washington Commanders, and New Orleans has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to receivers this year.

Green Bay coach Matt LaFleur spoke last week about getting Reed more involved in the game plan. While his Week 15 stat line doesn’t blow you away, he was targeted six times and caught five passes, which was his highest total since Week 9. Reed also registered a 32% targets per route run (TPRR) as well as a 28.6% first-read target share in last week’s game, per Fantasy Points Data Suite. Both these marks show Green Bay’s desire to get the ball into Reed’s hands.

New Orleans also has a poor run defense, so this is a spot where we could see Reed involved as a runner as well. The going has been tough as of late, but this is a great spot for the second-year receiver to have a good week. He’s a fine WR3 or flex play with the upside to be the difference in your semifinal matchup.

Jake Ferguson - TE, Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It’s been a disappointing season for Ferguson. Many fantasy gamers had high hopes for the third-year tight end, but those hopes were dashed when Ferguson suffered an early season knee injury and quarterback Dak Prescott was lost for the season.

However, Ferguson gets a cushy matchup this week as Dallas goes up against a Tampa Bay defense that’s struggled to defend tight ends. The Buccaneers are 29th in DVOA against tight ends and have allowed the second-most receiving yards to the position this year.

If you’ve been streaming tight ends, Ferguson is a good option for this week. The matchup is fantastic, and he could have one of his better games of the year.

Week 16 Fantasy Football Busts

Tua Tagovailoa - QB, Miami Dolphins vs. San Francisco 49ers

Tagovailoa had been on a major heater entering a Week 15 showdown with the Houston Texans. The fifth-year signal-caller had his worst game in over a month and finished last week as the QB29. Unfortunately, things don’t get any easier in Week 16.

While the 49ers defense hasn’t been as formidable as in years past, it has still been very effective against opposing quarterbacks. San Francisco has allowed the second-fewest passing yards per game in the league, the 10th-fewest passing touchdowns, and the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this year. Miami’s pass protection has also been an issue all season. While the 49ers defensive front is having a down year, it is still more than capable of giving Miami’s offensive line some fits.

This is just a tough matchup for Tagovailoa. Gamers who’ve been streaming the position should consider other options for this week.

Najee Harris - RB, Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

This a huge game in the AFC North race. Pittsburgh already defeated Baltimore earlier this year, and a win here likely cements the Steelers as division champions. They will likely turn to Harris and the ground game to pick up the victory, but that won’t necessarily mean good things for the fourth-year back.

Baltimore boasts one of the league’s best run defenses. It ranks fifth in defensive rushing DVOA and allows the fewest rushing yards per game in the league. Harris has had a nice season but is still averaging less than 4.0 yards per carry.

Pittsburgh’s offensive line has had some issues throughout the year, and this could be a spot it struggles to get going. Pittsburgh’s top receiver, George Pickens, also will not play in this game. His absence severely hampers Pittsburgh’s passing attack and allows Baltimore to sell out to stop the run.

Harris had some success in the first go-round against Baltimore, but it’s unlikely lightning strikes twice against this Baltimore run defense. Harris is better off left on benches for this week.

Jerry Jeudy - WR, Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals

Jeudy is in the middle of a career year. It’s been good to see as the former first-round pick has finally started to meet expectations.

JEUDY 89-YARD TD!! 😳

📺: #CLEvsNO on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/pPwT9dYWZs

— NFL (@NFL) November 17, 2024

However, most of Jeudy’s production has come with Jameis Winston under center. That won’t be the case this week as Cleveland announced it is starting second-year player Dorian Thompson-Robinson.

It’s a curious decision as Thompson-Robinson has looked incapable of leading an NFL offense the few times we’ve seen him play. This switch is just bad news for Jeudy and all the other Cleveland pass-catchers.

Browns rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who is starting his first game today, throws an interception that is taken for a nice return. pic.twitter.com/Y7drwr6qxU

— Arye Pulli (@AryePulliNFL) October 1, 2023

This is a tough pill for gamers to swallow as Jeudy was primed for a big game against this terrible Cincinnati defense. Thompson-Robinson considerably lowers Jeudy’s ceiling and makes him a much riskier play. Gamers should only consider starting the fifth-year receiver if they absolutely must, but it might be smarter to leave him on the bench altogether.

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