Boom or Bust - Quarterback Predictions for 2020

Quarterbacks are frequently devalued in drafts compared to their running back and wide receiver peers, and for good reason. Despite being the highest-scoring position in fantasy football in most systems, many drafters will take multiple players at other positions before taking a quarterback. A large tier of serviceable yet interchangeable passers typically exists each year, and the ones that exceed this level of performance are surprisingly difficult to predict. 

Such a situation often leads to drafters implementing vastly different strategies to fill this spot in their lineup. While there are many winning formulas for constructing a roster, several pitfalls exist that can put your team at a disadvantage. Some owners will take a quarterback early in drafts, only for their surefire producer to underperform. Others will wait to take an under-the-radar option late, only to whiff and choose someone who will end the season on waivers.

This goal of this article is to guide owners by diving into the outlooks of a few players that are being used in various drafting strategies.

Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans

Deshaun Watson is entering his fourth season in the NFL and is coming off of a campaign marked by inconsistency. While his overall production was significant, with 3,852 passing yards and 33 total touchdowns in 15 games, he had just three 300 yard passing performances and four games without a passing touchdown. Furthermore, his 18 total turnovers cost his team possessions, and his fantasy owners points. In 2020, it is reasonable to expect Watson to improve individually with another year of experience under his belt. Given that the Texans return head coach Bill O’Brien, offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and quarterbacks coach Carl Smith, there is little uncertainty regarding Watson’s place in the offense.

Sadly, there is ample reason to be pessimistic about Watson this season. For one, star wideout DeAndre Hopkins was traded to the Arizona Cardinals this season, leaving Watson without a teammate who amassed a 28.9 percent target share and 28.5 percent of the team’s receiving yardage. While the franchise did add former Ram Brandin Cooks to fill the vacancy, Cooks regressed significantly last season with his production roughly halved. Additionally, Cooks’s drop rate of 5.6 percent was more than double Hopkins’s, and his durability can also be questioned due to having a long history of concussions. This downgrade at the receiver position will only hinder Watson’s ability to make plays this season.

On top of this, his red-zone completion percentage ranked just 28th last season and 33rd in 2018, indicating that he leaves valuable touchdown points on the table. The Texans also averaged just the 19th most pass plays per game; after paying a premium to acquire running back David Johnson, it is reasonable to assume that the ground game may become even more prominent in 2020. While Watson is not a poor fantasy option by any means, he is currently going as the QB6 in drafts. At this spot, there are likely better options available.

Verdict: Bust

Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers

Jimmy Garoppolo enters 2020 looking to build on a campaign that saw his 49ers make a run to the Super Bowl. Garoppolo threw for 3,978 yards and 27 touchdowns in 2019, which is sneaky production for a quarterback that often receives the game-manager label. However, the 49ers did have the fourth-fewest pass attempts per game last season, which placed a cap on his potential output. Moreover, there are several reasons for owners to shy away from him as a fantasy option this season, including the loss of Emmanuel Sanders in free agency. Deebo Samuel falling victim to a (likely) season-ending injury this offseason will not help matters either.

Yet there is reason to go against the grain and be optimistic about his outlook. It is easy to forget that last season was Garoppolo’s first full season as a starting quarterback. Another year of experience could lead to a breakout performance even without Sanders and Samuel. Furthermore, general manager John Lynch addressed the team’s weakness at receiver in the draft by selecting Brandon Aiyuk 25th overall. Aiyuk is a physical specimen who achieved a 92nd percentile burst score at the combine. Considering that he also accumulated the second-most receiving yards after contact in college last season leads one to believe that he could be a significant weapon immediately for Garoppolo to play with. Along with superstar tight end George Kittle, Aiyuk will make sure that the team’s recent subtractions do not damage the passing attack.

Speaking of subtractions, running back Matt Breida was traded to the Dolphins this offseason. With fellow tailback Raheem Mostert now requesting a trade, the 49ers may find themselves passing more frequently in 2020. If so, Garoppolo could be a monster in fantasy. Jimmy G ranked first in the league last season in deep-ball completion percentage and second in pressured completion percentage. This accuracy shows his underrated efficiency as a passer that could become a larger focus of the team’s offense going forward. Additionally, the 49ers had the second-most drops of any team last season, a figure that is likely to regress to the mean with a new receiving corps. Garoppolo is going as just the QB21 in drafts currently. Taking a late flier on the San Francisco passer could be an amazing value play.

Verdict: Boom

Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns

Many experts expected the Browns to Bake(r) something marvelous in the Kitchens last season. Sadly, all they did was burn the house down. Baker Mayfield regressed in almost every statistical category in 2019, with just 3,827 passing yards and 22 touchdowns to go with 21 interceptions. His adjusted yards per attempt ranked just 29th, and his true passer rating finished 28th. These disappointing figures loom especially large given the team’s addition of star receiver Odell Beckham Jr. last offseason. Mayfield and the Browns offense could never gain any traction, and rookie head coach Freddie Kitchens was fired after a 6-10 finish.

A deeper look into his difficulties, however, suggests that big things could be in store for Mayfield this season. The Browns were terrible at pass blocking last season; Mayfield was just the 30th best-protected passer. In 2018, the season that garnered Mayfield significant hype, his protection rate ranked 11th. This correlation led the Browns to sign tackle Jack Conklin in free agency and draft lineman Jedrick Wills Jr. 10th overall. With more talent on the offensive line, Mayfield should return to his rookie-year production at the very least. The Browns also return Beckham as well as other weapons, such as Jarvis Landry, Nick Chubb, and Kareem Hunt. The addition of tight end Austin Hooper, who had the second-best true catch rate among tight ends last season, will further improve Mayfield’s supporting cast.

Other statistics further show that 2019 was an anomaly for Mayfield. His red-zone completion percentage fell from 66.7 percent to 41.0 percent. His adjusted yards per attempt fell from 15th to 29th. His true passer rating fell from 14th to 28th. The entire season was a bust with Freddie Kitchens as head coach. New coach Kevin Stefanski oversaw Kirk Cousins’ breakthrough season as Minnesota’s offensive coordinator last season. With Stefanski at the helm, Mayfield will regain his composure that was so promising in 2018. Mayfield is currently the QB15 according to ADP; make sure to pounce on him before he falls to that spot.

Verdict: Boom

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