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Thunder Dan Palyo's top NBA prop bets for 11/17/25: expert player-prop picks, value plays, quick model edges and line-shopping tips for today’s slate. Check odds & get the edge.
We have one of the more robust Tuesday slates of the early NBA season tonight with six games in the Association. That's the good news. The bad news is that a few of these games feature teams that already have multiple injuries to key players, so we have to attempt to figure out which players will step up in their absences. There is an opportunity there, however, as the books are going to try to do the same thing, and I'll be looking for some spots where we can beat the books as they try to figure out how to price the remaining players.
Today's column features a good blend of well-known studs and some sneaky bench players. I love hunting for value on those lesser-known rotational guys, especially when they have an opportunity to outperform their baseline due to increased playing time.
In this article, I will provide my favorite NBA player props picks for Tuesday, November 18th. Prop picks can range from individual stats—points, assists, rebounds, three-pointers made, and defensive stats —to combination props (Points + Rebounds + Assists = PRA). All odds and sportsbooks used are listed as well, but always shop around, as those odds change throughout the day as bets come in. Let's get to the picks already. I loaded it up for tonight!
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Today’s Best NBA Prop Bets & Player Props
Early-season NBA player props offer bettors a prime opportunity to get ahead of oddsmakers by capitalizing on new trends, unexpected rotations, and shifts in play style from last season. With teams still settling into their identities, sharp bettors can often find mispriced lines before the markets adjust.
Let’s take a look at the top player props for today’s NBA slate:
- Derrick White over 17.5 Points (-115 Fanatics)
- Shaedon Sharpe over 24.5 Points (-115 BetMGM)
- Isaiah Collier over 6.5 Assists (-128 FD)
- Luka Garza over 8.5 Points (-114 FD)
- Luke Kornet over 10.5 Points (-118 BetMGM)
- Tristan da Silva over 17.5 Points and Rebounds (-110 Fanatics)
- Collin Gillespie over 16.5 Points and Assists (-112 DK)
Derrick White over 17.5 Points (-115 Fanatics)
It was a very slow start to the season for White as far as his shooting goes. He's been one of the more efficient guards in the NBA the last two seasons, but in the post-Tatum landscape of the Celtics, he was firing up more shots than he had since his time in San Antonio and was struggling to figure out how to coexist with Peyton Pritchard in the starting backcourt.
But over the last week, White's shooting has stabilized, and he's seen his usage level off in the low to mid-20s. He's averaging just over 20 points per game over his last four games and will face the Nets tonight who sport the worst defensive rating of any team in the NBA.
Look for White and the Celtics to put up some points tonight. They're implied for 117.5 by Vegas, and that might even be a bit low considering the Nets have allowed more than that in 9 of 13 games this season.
Shaedon Sharpe over 24.5 Points (-115 BetMGM)
The Blazers look like they will be without their veteran leader and point guard, Jrue Holiday, again tonight. Holiday is doubtful for the matchup with Phoenix, and we saw Portland move Jerami Grant into the starting lineup in their last game, pushing Sharpe over to the PG slot.
But Sharpe is not a point guard; he's a pure scorer. He's averaging 22 points per game this season despite being limited to just 28.5 minutes per game because of a minutes restriction. That restriction appears to be gone as he's seen his minutes tick up to 30, 31, and 38.5 in his last three.
He scored 36 points against Dallas last time out with Holiday on the bench, and posted a massive 39% usage rate. There's no reason to think he can't score at least 25 tonight against a Phoenix team that is middling, at best, on defense. He's gone for 30+ in three of his last four. Sharpe is a stone-cold killer and set up to put up a big point total tonight.
Isaiah Collier over 6.5 Assists (-128 FD)
Collier has been playing really well for Utah since returning from an injury that sidelined him for the first few weeks of the season. He's been coming off the bench, but has seen at least 25 minutes in four of five games, including 36 minutes in a double-OT win over Chicago.
What makes Isaiah Collier special? 🤔🏀
Isaiah Collier is a pure point. Lives in PnR, manipulates tags, hits pocket/skip/lob/dunker reads. Elite rim pressure, finishes both sides, a blur in transition. If the above-the-break 3 and turnovers tick down, Utah’s got an orchestrator… pic.twitter.com/wjae6L9X2P
— Lee Escobedo (@_leeescobedo) November 14, 2025
Collier has gone for seven or more assists in four straight and faces a Lakers team that allows the fifth-most assists per game tonight.
Top Value Props & Sleeper Picks
Betting on superstars is always exciting, but the best value often lies on the margins of a roster. Role players and emerging contributors can offer hidden edges, especially as the season wears on and injuries start to shake up rotations.
Let’s dive into some of the top value plays for today’s NBA slate.
Luka Garza over 8.5 Points (-114 FD)
The former Minnesota center has started earning more minutes off the bench and has seen his production rise as a result. He's scored in double figures in four straight outings and has hit this prop in seven of the eight games where he's logged at least 14 minutes.
He's a good bet to keep his hot streak going against the relatively soft interior of the Brooklyn defense. The Nets have allowed the sixth-most points to opposing centers this season.
Luke Kornet over 10.5 Points (-118 BetMGM)
Kornet has appeared in six games for the Spurs this season and has scored at least 11 points in four of those games. The two games that he failed to go over that number were both games where his minutes were under 20 for the night.
He started at center in Victor Wembanyama's stead last time out against the Kings and logged 27 minutes. I would expect him to be in that 26 to 28 minutes again tonight against the Grizzlies, and while his other props are also attractive, I am just sticking with his points prop to keep it simple. The seven-footer is shooting nearly 80% from the field this year and doesn't need a high usage rate to get us a win here; he just needs to convert his dunks and putbacks for some easy buckets.
Tristan da Silva over 17.5 Points and Rebounds (-110 Fanatics)
The second-year player has been filling in quite admirably for the injured Paolo Banchero for the last two games. He's gone from playing around 20 minutes a game as a bench player to logging 32 and 40 minutes in two games as a starter.
He's cleared his prop in both starts, sailing easily over this number with a 22-9 outing against Brooklyn and a 13-9 performance against a tough Houston team. The Warriors don't rebound the ball well and lack rim protection, so look for da Silva to hit the boards hard tonight and get some easy baskets inside.
His scoring and rebounding rates suggest that he can cruise over this number with normal starters' minutes.
Collin Gillespie over 16.5 Points and Assists (-110 DK)
The Suns finally got Dillon Brooks back in the lineup, but lost Grayson Allen to an injury shortly after. So Devin Booker and Brooks are getting up a ton of shots with the first unit, while Gillespie is coming off the bench and leading the second unit in scoring and assists.
Collin Gillespie this season:
9.5 PPG (career-high)
3.8 RPG (career-high)
4.9 APG (career-high)
2.4 3PM (career-high)Leading the NBA in assists off the bench. pic.twitter.com/R9J4hJTmpy
— Booker Muse (@DevinBookerMuse) November 14, 2025
In their last game against Atlanta, Gillespie played 32 minutes and scored 15 points with 7 assists. When we toss out a few outlier games where he played less than 20 minutes, he's gone over this number in seven of 11 games this season. Look for him to continue to fire up six or seven threes per game and act as the main facilitator for this Phoenix offense any time that Booker isn't on the floor.
NBA Betting Tools & Resources
Don't forget to utilize all of the NBA DFS and betting tools we have here at RotoBaller! The NBA betting landscape changes by the minute throughout the day, so stay up to date with the latest odds and market values with our NBA DFS and betting tools and projections.
Thanks for reading, RotoBallers, and good luck if you are tailing our bets tonight!
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