RADIO
Jorge Pucks delivers his top DraftKings, FanDuel NHL DFS value plays and research for May 28th including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays, stacks.
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season has now entered the postseason which is the most exciting time to watch and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together.
In the image above, you'll see that Sidney Crosby is skating in-between Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust and this line has skated together for most of the year. The idea behind staking forward lines is that if Crosby gets a goal, there is a higher percentage and chance that either Rust or Guentzel would get credited with an assist, therefore, resulting in more fantasy points.
The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play on that site just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Friday, May 28th, 2020 at 9:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 5/28
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- Minnesota Wild vs. Vegas Golden Knights (-170) - 5.5U
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
NHL DFS Power Play Matrix
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium NHL DFS subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Jorge by using the promo code JORGEPUCKS when purchasing an NHL DFS Premium Pass. You get 10% off, and exclusive access to all of our Premium NHL cheat sheets, DFS research tools, Premium Slack Chatrooms, Stack Builder, Correlation Matrix, and Lineup Optimizer!
NHL DFS Core Plays- Showdown Edition
Captain Picks
- Marc-Andre Fleury ($11,200 DK) - Fleury won't be of much help over on FD as goalies are not included in the showdown pool but he could be a top point-getter over on DK. He has been great all postseason long despite being having a record of 3-3. Fleury has stopped 143 out of 153 total shots faced and has a 1.66 goals allowed average and one shutout in six total playoff games this year. The home-ice advantage will certainly help Vegas and Fleury and if he is able to continue his dominating fashion at home (1.65 goals allowed average, .936 save percentage), he could be a big-time fantasy option for the captain spot.
- Mark Stone ($9,800 DK/ $15,500) - Stone has been the top point producer for Vegas in both the regular season and so far in the postseason as well. He is almost at a point-per-game pace against Minnesota in the playoffs and has one of the better overall floors and ceilings out of all f the skaters in this game. If you think this game will feature some goals, you might want to make sure that you get Stone into your lineup.
- Kirill Karpizov ($9,400 DK/ 14,000 FD) - Kaprizov had a very successful rookie campaign as he led the Wild with 51 total points and ended up being their top goal scorer and their second-most assist getter on the team. His numbers have been kept in check throughout this series against Vegas as he only has one goal and one assist with nine total shots on goal but if he could have a breakout performance in Game 7, that could be enough to lead the Wild to a win over Vegas and also help you take first in a tournament.
Value Picks
- Kevin Fiala ($8,400 DK/ $12,500 FD) - Fiala was poised to have a big year this year but an injury early on in the regular season derailed his upside. He is a high-volume shooter and always has the green light when he is in control of the puck. He has taken 18 shots on goal over his last five games played and has 41 total shots in 13 games against Vegas.
- Alex Tuch ($7,600 DK/ $9,000 FD) - Tuch gets a big boost if Max Pacioretty remains out for game 7 as he will once again skate alongside Chandler Stephenson and Mark Stone on the top Vegas line. He has done well so far as he has recorded three goals in six playoff games and is averaging close to four peripheral stats per game as well.
- Ryan Hartman ($5,800 DK/ $7,500 FD) - One cheap guy to consider for your lineups would be Ryan Hartman who centers the third line for the Wild. Hartman isn't a big-time goal-scoring threat, he has been able to record two goals over his last five games and has a solid floor as he is averaging close to four peripheral stats per game.
Stacks
- VGK 1- Tuch/ Stephenson/ Stone
- VGK 2- Marchessault/ Karlsson/ Smith
- MIN 2- Parise/ Hartman/ Fiala
Player Pool (In order of preference)
C- Karlsson, Stephenson, Hartman, Rask
W- Pacioretty (DTD), Stone, Kaprizov, Marchessault, Fiala, Tuch, Smith, Zuccarello, Parise, Foligno
D- Pietrangelo, Theodore, Martinez, Spurgeon, Dumba, Brodin, Suter, Hague
G- Campbell, Hellebuyck
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
