NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings (5/10): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

May 10, 2021

Jorge Pucks delivers his top DraftKings, FanDuel NHL DFS value plays and research for May 10th including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays, stacks.

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Monday, May 10th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 5/10

• • New Jersey Devils vs. Philadelphia Flyers (-155) - 6O
  • Edmonton Oilers (-115) vs. Montreal Canadiens (-105) - 6U
  • New York Islanders vs Boston Bruins (-165) - 5.5U
  • Tampa Bay Lightning (-105) vs. Florida Panthers (-115) - 6U
  • Vancouver Canucks vs. Winnipeg Jets (-175) - 5.5O
  • Carolina Hurricanes (-140) vs. Nashville Predators - 5.5U
  • Dallas Stars (-155) vs. Chicago Blackhawks - 6U
  • St. Louis Blues (-135) vs. Los Angeles Kings - 5.5U
  • Colorado Avalanche (-110) vs. Vegas Golden Knights (-110) - 5.5O

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium NHL DFS subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Jorge by using the promo code JORGEPUCKS when purchasing an NHL DFS Premium Pass. You get 10% off, and exclusive access to all of our Premium NHL cheat sheets, DFS research tools, Premium Slack Chatrooms, Stack Builder, Correlation Matrix and Lineup Optimizer!

NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

• Sebastian Aho, CAR ($7,500 DK / $8,100 FD) - There are several centers that are worth paying up for but Sebastian Aho is one that you should consider in all formats. He has five goals and three assists in seven games against Nashville this season and carries multi-point upside when he skates with Teravainen and Svechnikov.
• Alex Wennberg, FLA ($3,100 DK / $4,300 FD) - Wennberg has really picked up over his last five games and he is coming off of a hat trick performance against Tampa Bay on Saturday. Wennberg has four goals and three assists in seven games against the Lightning this year an for his price, he can certainly meet value by getting a point or two.

Other centers to consider: 

• High Priced- McDavid, Draisaitl, Barkov, Scheifele, Couturier, Kopitar, Trocheck
• Mid-Tier- Bennett, Karlsson, Benn, Hughes, Hayes
• Value- Staal, Pageau, Johansen

NHL DFS Forward Picks

• Jonatha Huberdeau, FLA ($6,700 DK / $7,500 FD) - While much of the attention could gravitate towards Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau is one to consider in all formats. Huberdeau is in good form as he has registered nine points over his last five games played while having three goals and four assists against the Lightning this year.
• Reilly Smith, VGK ($3,700 DK / $4,800 FD) - Smith has been on quite a hot streak as he has recorded a point in five straight games while also scoring a goal in three straight games. He is coming off of a hat trick against the Blues where he took seven shots on goal which shows his good form and that he is getting better shot opportunities as a whole.

Other wings to consider: 

• High Priced- Pastrnak, Marchand, Kane, DeBrincat
• Mid-Tier-  Pavelski, Toffoli, Robertson, Hall, Marchessault, Wheeler, Teravainen, Beauvillier
• Value- Eberle, Tuch, Iafallo, Kempe, Niederreiter, Gurianov, Pearson, Kiviranta

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

• Darnell Nurse, EDM ($6,600 DK / $5,900 FD) - Nurse is at a solid price point on both sites and he is certainly in play in all formats. Nurse has hit double-digit DK points in eight out of his last 10 games played and he is averaging over five peripheral stats per game during that stretch. Nurse has two goals against the Canadiens this season but has racked up 31 total peripheral stats in those seven games played.
• Mattias Ekholm, NSH ($4,200 DK / $3,900 FD) - Ekholm is still in a very favorable price range that makes him viable in all formats, especially in cash games. He has recorded three points over his last three games and has also averaged over three peripheral stats during that stretch of games as well. Ekholm sees over 20 minutes of ice time per game which only lends to his upside of racking up peripheral stats on a game-by-game basis.

Other defensemen to consider: 

• High Priced- Hamilton, Josi, Makar, Theodore, Pietrangelo, Martinez, Barrie, Provorov
• Mid-Tier- Ellis, Doughty, Toews, Morrissey, Hamonic, Hughes, Sergachev
• Value- Parayko, Walker, Edler, Pulock, Cernak, Lindell, Pesce, Oleksiak, Hague

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

• Laurent Brossoit, WPG ($8,500 DK / $6,900 FD) - Brossoit is an absolute steal over on FD while he is appropriately priced on DK. Brossoit will be getting the start on Monday night against the Canucks and he is 2-0 against Vancouver this season. In those two starts, Brossoit stopped 60 of 62 total shots that he has faced and racked up a .968 save percentage. Brossoit is 6-5 on the year with a 2.36 goals allowed average and is one of the better overall goalie plays in all formats.
• Cal Petersen, LAK ($7,200 DK / $7,100 FD) - If you're wanting a cheaper option to consider for both sites, Cal Petersen should be one to look at. He is in the low 7k range and has been solid despite his 9-17-4 record. He has a 2.82 goals allowed average and a .914 save percentage on the year and is 2-1-1 against St. Louis this season. In those four starts, Petersen has allowed only eight goals and has stopped 99 out of 107 total shots faced so the shot upside could be there in this matchup.

Other goalies to consider: 

• High Priced- Elliott
• Mid-Tier- Mrazek
• Value- Delia

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them in case he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks 

• CAR 1 
  • Svechnikov/ Aho/ Teravainen (Hamilton, d-men add on)
    • The top line for the Canes looks poised and ready to go for a playoff run so there's no reason to not consider them as we close out the regular season. With just a little over 100 minutes of ice time together, this line has generated eight even-strength goals and is sporting a 2.82 goals expected goals for rate while generating 33.82 scoring chances for and 12.83 high-danger opportunities per 60 minutes of ice time.
• FLA 1 
  • Huberdeau/ Bennett/ Tippett
    • The Panther's second line has been really impressive as of late and could go overlooked with a lot of the attention going towards the Barkov line. In just 35 minutes of ice time, this line has managed to score three even-strength goals while creating 35 scoring chances and 13 high-danger opportunities. In five minutes against the Lightning, this line was able to score a goal while also generate three scoring chances so if they can draw similar line matches tonight, they should be able to produce.

Other Stacks to consider: EDM 1, FLA 1, LAK 1, WPG 1, BOS 2, VGK 2, PHI 2

Key Abbreviations:

xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time

GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time

SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time

If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!

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