Gleyber Torres - Fantasy Baseball Daily Dive

May 6, 2021

Mike Kurland dives into the batting profile of Gleyber Torres of the New York Yankees to project his fantasy baseball value going forward in the 2021 MLB season.

The idea of this article is to discuss in depth a specific player’s current profile and production. We will dive into why he is succeeding or struggling and discuss if there are reasons for concern or brighter days ahead.

The intention here is to figure out what is going on and if there is a way to fix it or if we should ring the alarm bells in fantasy leagues.

Next up is New York Yankees infielder Gleyber Torres. Please note, all rostered rates are based on Yahoo! formats. 

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Gleyber Torres, SS, New York Yankees

What is going on with Gleyber Torres?

Taking a look and you notice the power just hasn’t been there and the rest of his numbers are less than desirable on the surface. Hitting just .240 so far with an OPS of just .630 (yikes) and people are starting to panic. Yes, I understand the reason for panic and/or frustration but it is in your best interest to give him a little more time to get going. Torres has elite walk (13.3%) and strikeout (15.8%) rates. This is in line with his 2020 output so any points leagues or OBP formats, he gains value. 

This plate discipline comes on the back of back-to-back seasons of producing an O-Swing at around 25% which is 10 points lower than his output in 2019. However, in 2020 he was far more patient with a career-low swing% of 41.9% but he has since increased this to 47.5% in 2021. This increase in swing rate comes without a gain in O-Swing% (how much a player swings outside the zone). This means this increase is all Z-Swing% (the amount a player swings in the zone). That combination is ideal. He has been attacking more pitches in the zone and it was thought Torres was too passive last season. So he has already improved in that aspect. 

Overall, his plate discipline is pretty similar to 2019 (when he broke out). He is sustaining similar contact rates while swinging less out of the zone. That's a positive change. So why isn’t the rest of the production following? Well, it appears to be a quality of contact issue.

Torres has a decrease in Sweet Spot% for two-straight seasons and although he has slightly improved his barrel rate to this point (4.7%), it is still down as a whole and is sub 5% for the second-straight season after sitting at 9.2% and 10.1% his first two seasons in the league. His hard-hit rate is also a career-low 32.9% and what makes that even more concerning is it is down in a season where it is up across the league. This comes with a career-low max exit velocity as well at just 108.5 MPH. 

Another possible reason for the decline in power is the pull rate. He was pulling the ball 41% of the time in 2019 during the power breakout but now he is showing a willingness to go to all fields and this could be either an approach change or more-so taking what pitchers are giving him instead of selling out for power. Pitchers are throwing to the outside, mostly low-and-away, to Torres and this could explain why he is going more to all-fields and not selling out for power. 

Regardless, he is hitting at least 31% to all parts of the field. This should help improve the batting average if nothing else. Especially considering he is hitting more line drives than ever before (25.9%).

Torres has been a bit unlucky with the .288 SLG% being 97 points lower than the .385 xSLG. Neither are good, but he should still be doing better. Same can be said about his overall wOBA rate as it is .292 but the xwOBA is .325 (33 points higher) is another indication of under producing and reason to buy into better days ahead. 

There are more reasons for optimism. Over Gleyber Torres’ last 14 games, the production has been better. 

The power has not shown up obviously, but hitting .283 with a .320 wOBA and 110 wRC+ is a step in the right direction. This is with a hard hit rate of 34.7%. It is not anything special but an improvement compared to the overall hard hit rate on the year. Unfortunately, this is accompanied by a 2% barrel rate over this period. This might be the bigger issue but with such good plate discipline, the quality of contact should improve. At least one would think. 

The gains in batting average are backed by the plate discipline over this time as he has cut down on the swing-and-miss and increased his contact rates across the board. 

It is unfortunate but 2019 may have been the peak of his power and given the changes in approach and profile going back to 2020, he may be more of the 25 home run type but with an improved batting average. There are better days ahead of him. The weather is going to warm up and those balls will carry over the fence in the process. I would also buy that the quality of contact will catch up to the great plate discipline and when it all comes together, we can see the production make up for the lost time.

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