NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings (4/30): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Friday, April 30th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 4/30

• • Winnipeg Jets (-105) vs. Montreal Canadiens (-115) - 5.5U
  • San Jose Sharks vs. Colorado Avalanche (-280) - 6U
  • Vegas Golden Knights (-195) vs. Arizona Coyotes - 5.5U
  • Los Angeles Kings (-125) vs. Anaheim Ducks - 5.5U

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).

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NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

• Nathan MacKinnon, COL ($9,000 DK / $9,100 FD) - On a short slate, it is pretty easy to figure out that MacKinnon should not be faded in cash games. He has been in great form as he has recorded a point in 10 straight games and has done well against the Sharks as he has four assists in four games against the Sharks while taking 20 shots on goal.
• Logan Couture, SJS ($4,500 DK/ $5,700 FD) - On the flip side of this game, Logan Couture comes in at a very low price and while he hasn't been in the best form over the last month, he is showing some signs of life here recently. He has scored four points over his last three games played and has three points in four games against Colorado this season.

Other centers to consider: 

• High Priced- Scheifele, Kopitar
• Mid-Tier- Hertl, Kari, Karlsson, Kadri 
• Value- Schmaltz, Stastny, Danault, Byfield

NHL DFS Forward Picks

• Max Pacioretty, VGK ($8,600 DK / $8,300 FD) - Just like paying up for MacKinnon is the move at the center spot, paying up for Pacioretty is the move at the winger position. Pacioretty has been on fire as he has scored a point in nine of the last 10 games played while scoring a goal in six of those games.
• Adrian Kempe, LAK ($4,700 DK / $4,200 FD) - Kempe has had the Ducks number this year as he has scored six goals and registered two assists in six games this season. He is averaging 17 DK points per game against Anaheim and gets a boost as he is skating alongside rookie Kings sensation, Quinton Byfield.

Other wings to consider: 

• High Priced- Connor, Landeskog, Stone, Kane, Marchessault
• Mid-Tier- Wheeler, Brown, Iafallo, Meier, Kessel, Keller
• Value- Labanc, Smith, Balcers

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

• Shea Theodore, VGK ($6,700 DK / $6,800 FD) - If spending up for a defender on this slate, Theodore is too good to pass up from a consistency standpoint. He has registered eight points over his last five games and has recorded multi-point outings in three of those five games. Theodore has three goals and three assists in six games against the Coyotes and has recorded 27 peripheral stats in those six games.
• Josh Morrissey, WPG ($4,600 DK / $4,100 FD) - It's never the most exciting thing to consider a guy who hasn't scored a point in seven straight games but the floor is solid for Morrissey. He is averaging over four peripheral stats per game and continues to see a large amount of ice time which only helps his case of racking up peripheral stats.

Other defensemen to consider: 

• High Priced- Chychrun, Martinez, Pietrangelo
• Mid-Tier- Makar, Burns, Doughty, Toews
• Value- Pionk, Karlsson, Forbort, Ferraro

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

• Marc-Andre Fleury, VGK ($8,300 DK / $8,700 FD) - We could see Fleury get the start tonight against Arizona since he tended the goal on Wednesday and had a day off on Thursday. Fleury is the preferred pay-up option at the goalie position on the slate as he has won five straight starts and is 3-0 against the Coyotes. In those three wins, Fleury has stopped 51 of 53 shots faced and has accrued a .67 goals allowed average and a .962 save percentage.
• Cal Petersen, COL ($8,000 DK / $6,800 FD) - Petersen checks in as a great value goalie option over on FD as he is below the 7k mark. Despite Petersen losing his last three games that he has started, his last win was against the Ducks where he stopped 24 out of 25 shots and recorded a .960 save percentage in a Kings win. Petersen is 1-2-1 against Anaheim this season and is sporting a 2.98 goals allowed average against them this season. He looks to be more of a FD-only option just based on price alone.

Other goalies to consider: 

• High Priced- Dubnyk
• Mid-Tier- 
• Value- 

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them in case he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks 

• COL 1  
  • Landeskog/ MacKinnon/ Rantanen (Makar, d-men add on)
    • Colorado will be on home ice for their game against San Jose and this just screams like a great spot to lock in the Avs top line. Mikko Rantanen could be back for Colorado which would then reunite their traditional top line of Rantanen, Landeskog, and MacKinnon. This line is one of the top 5v5 lines in the league, as they have a 3.11 expected goals for rate on the year and, are generating 37.79 scoring chances for and 13.05 high danger opportunities per 60 minutes of ice time.
• LAK 3  
  • Moore/ Byfield/ Kempe  
    • This line is a newer line for the Kings and while we only have eight minutes of ice time of them skating together, they could be one to target since they relatively cheap. This Kings third line has a 2.4 expected goals for rate and is generating  29.09 scoring chances for per 60 minutes. In their lone appearance together, this line generated four scoring chances and will only look to improve upon these numbers as the season progresses.

Other Stacks to consider: VGK 1, LAK 1, WPG 2, VGK 2, SJS 2

Key Abbreviations:

xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time

GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time

SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time

If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!

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