NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings (4/17): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

3 years ago by Jorge Pucks

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Saturday, April 17th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 4/17

- Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-160) - 5.5O
- Nashville Predators vs. Carolina Hurricanes (-185) - 5.5U
- Chicago Blackhawks (-150) vs. Detroit Red Wings - 5.5O
- San Jose Sharks vs. Minnesota Wild (-186) - 6U
- Columbus Blue Jackets vs. Dallas Stars (-180) - 5O
- Edmonton Oilers vs. Winnipeg Jets (-125) - 6U

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

Team	Rank GA	Rank SA	Rank GF	Rank SF	Total
Florida	13	15	21	2	16.5
Tampa Bay	7	22	29	9	13
Nashville	14	16	6	22	14.5
Carolina	5	25	23	5	14.5
Chicago	21	2	15	18	13.5
Detroit	21	9	2	29	15.75
San Jose	28	6	8	10	20
Minnesota	11	13	20	26	10.5
Columbus	27	5	5	24	17.5
Dallas	4	30	13	25	15.75
Edmonton	16	14	22	22	17.25
Winnipeg	9	10	25	14	15.75

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

Matchup	PP Rank	Opp PK Rank
Florida	12	8
Tampa Bay	5	15
Nashville	21	5
Carolina	1	28
Chicago	6	24
Detroit	30	19
San Jose	26	5
Minnesota	25	13
Columbus	28	19
Dallas	6	21
Edmonton	2	12
Winnipeg	2	17

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).

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NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

Connor McDavid, EDM ($9,100 DK / $8,800 FD) - It's been a full week since the Oilers last played a game so McDavid should be fresh and ready to go in their clash against Winnipeg. In six games against the Jets this season, McDavid has netted four goals and recorded nine assists while taking 28 shots on goal.
Jamie Benn, DAL ($4,900 DK/ $6,200 FD) - Benn is a skillful winger who has been shifted to center the second line for Dallas. His pricing on DK is too good to pass up as he will continue to see a solid amount of ice time and has recorded five points and 10 shots on goal over his last five games. In seven games against Columbus, Ben has scored two goals and registered five assists which is great from a cash game standpoint.

Other centers to consider:

High Priced- Draisaitl, Barkov, Trocheck, Aho, Hertl
Mid-Tier- Couture, Gourde, Staal
Value- Roslovic, Cirelli, Dach

NHL DFS Forward Picks

Joe Pavelski, DAL ($6,800 DK / $7,400 FD) - Pavelski has been one of the better Stars players all season long and he has also been a consistent DFS winger as well. Over his last five games, Pavelski has generated a point in four of those games and is carrying a floor of at least three peripheral stats per game.
Nino Niederreiter, CAR ($4,300 DK / $4,300 FD) - Nino has been on fire as of late as he has scored a point in four straight games. He has been featured on the third line for the Canes and has been able to take advantage of weaker matchups. With his price point pretty low, he makes for an ideal value target for cash games.

Other wings to consider:

High Priced- Kane, DeBrincat, Kane, Kaprizov, Hornqvist, Fiala
Mid-Tier- Huberdeau, Meier, Robertson, Svechnikov, Necas, Kubalik
Value- Laine, Zuccarello, Gurianov, Killorn, Stastny, Puljujarvi, Parise, Gusev, Marchment

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

Darnell Nurse, EDM ($6,700 DK / $5,400 FD) - There is a lot to like about Nurse from both a real-life hockey standpoint and from a fantasy standpoint. He carries a good floor as he can rack up peripherals with the best of them and he gets plenty of ice time with stars like McDavid and Draisaitl. Nurse has eight points and 21 peripheral stats in just six games against Winnipeg this year and should see plenty of ice time for him to hit value.
Mikhail Sergachev, TBL ($4,800 DK / $4,500 FD) - Sergachev offers one of the best floors out of all defensemen in the league. He is averaging over two shots and one blocked shot per game and has recorded a point in three straight games. Sergachev has assisted three goals in five games against the Panthers and has seen over 21 minutes of ice time against them this year.

Other defensemen to consider:

High Priced- Hamilton, Josi, Burns
Mid-Tier- Barrie, Jones, Klingberg, Karlsson, Spurgeon, Morrissey
Value- Lindell, Pionk, Ellis, Ekholm, Dumba, Montour

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

Petr Mrazek, CAR ($8,100 DK / $8,600 FD) - Mrazek had a dominant performance against Nashville on Thursday night as he stopped 19 of 20 shots in a victorious effort and he could turn out another strong performance if he gets the start on Saturday night. Mrazek is 5-1-1 on the year with a 1.41 goals allowed average and a .944 save percentage and would be the preferred pay-up option if spending up on your goalie for cash games.
Kevin Lankinen, CHI ($8,000 DK / $7,000 FD) - We can't be afraid to go back to the Lankinen well after one bad performance. Lankinen allowed three goals to Detroit on Thursday in a losing effort but he has actually fared well against them as he is 4-1 with a 1.60 goals allowed average and a .950 save percentage in those five starts. Lankinen has won three out of his last five starts and a win against Detroit would be a big confidence boost as his Blackhawks team is still jockeying for playoff contention as they head into the final month of games for the regular season.

Other goalies to consider:

High Priced- Kahkonen
Mid-Tier- Oettinger
Value- Smith

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them in case he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks

EDM 1
- Draisaitl/ McDavid/ Puljujarvi (Barrie, d-men add on)
  - Edmonton should be well-rested heading into this game against Winnipeg as they have had basically a full week off. The Jets come in as the slight home favorite but the Oilers have had the Jets number as they are 4-2 against them this season. In just 10 minutes of ice time together against Winnipeg, this top line for the Oilers are producing a 7.23 expected goal for rate per 60 while generating over 17 high danger chances per 60 minutes of ice time as well. The combination of McDavid and Draisaitl is the highest-priced pairing on the slate but there should be enough value to at least fit them in as a mini-stack since they will be correlated together throughout the entire game.
CAR 1
- Svechnikov/ Aho/ Fast (Hamilton, d-men add on)
  - The Canes look to be in a great spot today despite facing a Nashville team that has seemed to turn the corner over the last month. The Canes will be matching up against one of the worst penalty-killing teams in the league and the Canes are the top power-play team in the league. Andrei Svechnikov has rejoined Sebastian Aho on the top line and this is a very talented and skillful duo that will see all of their ice time skating together. This Canes top line is producing a 2.73 expected goals for rate per 60 while generating 31.29 scoring chances for and 16.36 high danger chances for per 60.