Are You For Real? Surprising SP Starts from Week 2

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers, or simply mirages.

Welcome to the 2021 edition of "Are You For Real?" This is a weekly column where we dissect surprisingly good starts from under-rostered and unheralded hurlers to try and determine whether they can maintain their performance, or if it was just a flash in the pan.

Week 2 brought even more surprising starts, and with names old and new emerging on the waiver wire, we need to dive into these pitchers to determine who's worth the stash and who's an April mirage. This week we're breaking down the young Marlins lefty Trevor Rogers, Toronto southpaw Steven Matz, and the grizzled veteran Johnny Cueto out in San Francisco.

Roster percentages quoted in this piece are based on Yahoo availability and are accurate as of 04/12/2021.

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Trevor Rogers, Miami Marlins

60% Rostered

2020 Stats: 28 IP, 6.11 ERA, 4.33 FIP, 3.0 K/BB ratio

04/10 @ NYM: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 10 K

Rogers went toe-to-toe with two-time Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom on Saturday, and not only held his own, but carved up the Mets’ lineup with 10 strikeouts. While a lot of the baseball talking-head conversation around this game has focused on deGrom’s lack of run support, lost in the shuffle is just how well Rogers pitched. The young southpaw was throwing gas in this start, averaging a career-high 95.8 MPH with his four-seamer, and even touching 98 on the gun. He also notched 19 whiffs and had a 46% whiff rate, which slightly edged out deGrom’s 40% whiff rate. But are the sports pundits right to blame the Mets’ lineup for this weak offensive showing, or does Rogers deserve more credit?

The only thing worth noting about the Mets’ lineup on this particular Saturday is that they were very vulnerable to lefties, starting four in this game, and all four (Dominic Smith, Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil) have performed moderately worse against left-handed pitching over the course of their careers. Rogers doesn’t have enough career innings to judge his performance against lefties yet, but thus far he has gotten slightly worse results, though his 2.66 FIP against left-handed batters suggests he’s pitched much better from a skills perspective.

Rogers pitching style should lend itself to having even platoon splits going forward, as he’s best know for a devastating changeup, a pitch that opponents from both sides have hit just .184 against for Rogers’s career. In addition to the changeup, Rogers throws a four-seam fastball that has shown improved velocity through his first two starts, and he throws a middling slider that he uses most often when ahead in the count against left-handed batters.

The changeup should be the focal point when it comes to evaluating Rogers. Although he uses the pitch just 18.2% of the time, the lowest of his three pitches, it has a 22.7% swinging strike rate and opposing batters have managed a meager .468 OPS against the pitch throughout Rogers’s career. It has five inches more vertical movement compared to league average, and has one of the lowest spin rates of any changeup among left-handed starters. We’ve heard a lot about spin rate over the last two seasons and how pitchers were doing anything to increase their fastball spin rate, but in most cases a lower spin rate is ideal on a changeup. This isn’t always true. For example, one of the best changeups in baseball belongs to John Means, who also has the highest spin rate of any changeup in the majors. But, generally a lower spin rate on a changeup is conducive to hitter deception. Here’s a shot of the bad boy in action from this start.

Oof—that swing from Lindor may give Steve Cohen buyer's remorse. As mentioned above, the movement and spin rate of the pitch allows it to generate above average whiffs already, which is why the prospect of a velocity increase has me even more interested in Rogers.

One of the biggest factors to determine changeup efficacy is velocity separation. The gap between fastball velocity and changeup velocity has been shown to correlate with changeup results, and if Rogers can throw his fastball harder, it not only improves his results on the heater, but it should help improve results on his changeup. A changeup is all about deception. The batter needs to think it’s a fastball so they swing too early and either miss the pitch or make poor contact. If Rogers can fire his four-seamer between 95-97 with regularity, hitters will be even more off balance and struggle when Rogers throws a changeup.

In addition to his fastball velocity, Rogers also has an above average 2407 average RPM on his four-seamer, which means it can play above an already stellar velocity. As previously mentioned, Rogers has one of the lowest spin rates on his changeup as well. I’ve operated with an (admittedly untested) hypothesis that spin rate separation between a primary fastball and a changeup can carry a similar impact to velocity separation. While more research needs to be done by yours truly before using this concept to evaluate players, Rogers does have an almost 1000 RPM difference between his fastball and changeup, which is also one of the largest gaps among starters in baseball. That little nugget is just the cherry on top of this changeup sundae, as I'd be interested in Rogers even without the spin rate gap.

Verdict:

There is a lot of interesting raw talent in this arm that has me intrigued, but before we get ahead of ourselves, let’s not forget Rogers’s 6.11 ERA, 1.61 HR/9, and 10% walk rate in 2020. Nor should we ignore the 61% hard hit rate against him thus far this season. He is young and has struggled with control at times in his professional career, but overall there’s more to like about Rogers than there is to dislike. The Marlins have rolled out a stable of interesting young pitchers over the last few seasons, and Rogers is yet another to excite fantasy players. At this point in the season there are a lot of hot starts to chase, but Rogers has shown velocity improvements, has a strong strikeout pitch, and has flashed upside in the past. He is worth adding in all 12-team or deeper leagues as a breakout candidate.

Steven Matz, Toronto Blue Jays

61% Rostered

2020 Stats: 30.2 IP, 9.68 ERA, 7.76 FIP, 3.6 K/BB ratio

04/10 vs. LAA: 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K

Matz took a pounding in 2020, posting the second highest ERA among pitchers that tossed at least 30 innings. He also surrendered an astonishing 14 home runs in those 30.2 innings, a rate of 4.11 HR/9. Matz has struggled with injuries throughout his career, and in 2020 it looked the repeated aches, pains, and surgeries had caught up with him for good. Luckily for Matz, the pitching-needy Blue Jays gave him a shot as one of several reclamation projects they’re hoping pan out in 2021, and thus far none have looked better than Matz. In addition to holding the beefy Angels lineup to one run on Saturday, he allowed just two hits and one run against Texas in his first start while racking up nine strikeouts. It was the first time Matz had struck out at least nine batters since June 8 of 2019. Scouts, fans, and fantasy players always gushed over Matz’s talent, and this hot start may indicate that he’s healthy enough to perform again.

Perhaps the most encouraging sign for Matz is his improved fastball velocity. He’s averaged 94.7 MPH with his sinker through his first two starts, which would be a career high if Matz can maintain it over the course of the season. Another interesting piece of Matz’s game thus far has been his pitch selection. The southpaw has used his changeup 26.5% of the time, which would also be a career-high. The changeup has always been Matz’s best strikeout pitch, so if he can effectively incorporate the pitch more often, he should be able to sustain a higher strikeout rate than in year’s past.

Fantasy managers should be aware that these changes are entirely new. Matz both improved his fastball velocity and increased his changeup usage in 2020, and still Matz’s final numbers were nauseating. The silver lining (to us fantasy players at least) is that Matz did increase his strikeout rate to a career-high 25.4%, and strikeouts do indicate some measure of underlying skill. While his ERA and FIP were off the charts, Matz’s 4.15 xFIP and 4.05 SIERA were in line with his career averages. Home runs were an absolute killer for Matz last season, and while I wouldn’t expect him to maintain a 4.11 HR/9 or 37.8% HR/FB going forward, it would be inaccurate to chalk up his home run problem to sheer bad luck.

It wasn’t hyperbole when I said Matz took a pounding last season, as opposing batters scorched him for a 91.4 MPH average exit velocity against and a 13.5% barrel rate against. The only starting pitchers with worse barrel rates last season were Chase Anderson, Madison Bumgarner, and Derek Holland. Not exactly the company a pitcher wants to find himself in, at least based on 2020 stats. Despite the increased velocity, his sinker had its worst showing yet, with just a 26.7% groundball rate and a 40% line drive rate. The pitch was smoked for a 91.9 MPH average exit velocity. High line drive rate, high average exit velocity—we know how this story ends. Batters destroyed the sinker for a .322 AVG and .678 SLG. Somehow, his curveball was even worse as batters hit .400 with a .758 SLG and 92.8 MPH average exit velocity against the pitch. Sure, Matz increased his strikeout rate, but when batters did make contact, they obliterated his offerings.

The contact quality on his sinker has improved this season, as opponents have a -1-degree average launch angle and an 87.3 MPH average exit velocity, but in order to trust Matz we’ve got to see him do this for more than two starts. Furthermore, the average exit velocity against his sinker in his start against the Rangers was 90.5 MPH, hardly an improvement. So really, he’s only made improvements to contact quality over one start. But in that start against the Angels his strikeouts vanished, as Matz notched just four strikeouts and generated a measly five whiffs for a 16% whiff rate.

Obviously, we can’t expect Matz to fire on all cylinders every time, and we’re kind of digging into the minutia of things that can vary on a start-by-start basis, but the larger takeaway should be that Matz is far from back. He hasn’t posted an ERA below four since 2018, and after last season he is so far outside the trustable range for starters that nitpicking does have some value here. He allowed five or more earned runs in four of six starts last season, and if you’re in a weekly categories league, Matz could single-handedly destroy your ratios with one start. Matz could wind up a useful fantasy contributor this season, but the downside outweighs the upside right now. Matz is one to watch and keep an eye instead of someone to add and stick in your lineup right away.

Verdict:

Matz has improved his fastball velocity and changeup usage over the last two seasons, which has resulted in an uptick in strikeouts. His chronic gopheritis, sinker-heavy approach, and annoying tendency of occasionally getting absolutely shelled make him tough to trust, especially pitching in the A.L. East. Matz is someone who could become more rosterable if he continues pitching well, but I’d hold off on using him right away if you can avoid it. His next turn in the rotation currently comes against the Royals in Kansas City. He’s streamable there if you really need him, but he’s not particularly exciting. His 61% roster percentage is surprisingly high, as I would much rather take a chance on Trevor Rogers or Seattle lefty Yusei Kikuchi, who I covered in this column last week, both of whom are available in roughly the same amount of leagues.

Johnny Cueto, San Francisco Giants

23% Owned

2020 Stats: 63.1 IP, 5.40 ERA, 4.64 FIP, 2.15 K/BB ratio

04/09 vs. COL: 8.2 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K

After spending his 20s as one of the top right-handed starters in baseball, Johnny Cueto’s 30s have been a disaster. Between 2017-2020 Cueto posted a 4.51 ERA, 4.64 FIP, and 2.4 K/BB ratio over 279.2 innings, a far cry from the 2.86 ERA and 3.41 FIP Cueto posted in the seven prior seasons between 2010-2016. Things have begun to turn around for Cueto in 2021, as he nearly went the distance on Friday, falling just one out short of the increasingly rare complete game. Cueto still turned in one of his most dominant performances in ages, and has fantasy managers wondering if the Cueto we once knew could be reemerging in San Francisco.

When Cueto was at his best, he sported a deep repertoire of four pitches, his fastball, slider, changeup, and curveball. On top of that, he used three fastball variants (four-seam, cutter, sinker), further adding to his to his list of weapons. His biggest standout pitch has always been the changeup, which Cueto used reliably for strikeouts during his prime. But what made Cueto so good, and so different from other aces, is that his stuff wasn’t “knock your socks off” amazing. It certainly wasn’t bad by any means, but it wasn’t commiserate with his otherworldly results.

Cueto possesses a craftiness and deceptive tendencies that helped him pitch above his natural ability. That’s not a slight at Cueto, but a compliment for making the most of his talent. He’s famous for his shimmying on the mound and adaptive delivery throughout the game, but it goes beyond even that. Cueto was willing to throw any of his pitches to any batter in any situation, bucking traditional pitching wisdom and making him tough to predict. In many respects Cueto was ahead of his time in the early 2010s, but now with diminished stuff, chronic health issues, and a completely different game, Cueto may not be able to hang in the 2020s.

One of the most important things when evaluating Cueto is his fastball velocity. Cueto’s downward trajectory correlates almost perfectly a decline in four-seam velocity. At his peak he was averaging 93.4 MPH with his heater, but since joining the Giants he’s never managed to get it above 91.5 MPH. Cueto’s fastball has also been creamed by opposing hitters at this velocity, as batters have a .209 ISO and .239 AVG after having a .219 AVG and .131 ISO during his prime years. Cueto also spent half his games in the more power-heavy Great American Ballpark during his prime, compared to pitcher-friendly Oracle Park now. Cueto’s fastball has also been demolished by opposing hitters in 2021, with a .357 BA and 97.7 average exit velocity against, though he’s been fortunate not to have surrendered more hits and power, as his fastball has a .402 xBA and .750 xSLG against. Obviously, it’s a small sample size, but if your fastball is being hit this hard, chances are you’re doing something wrong.

While a spike in velocity would be big for Cueto, there’s no reason to expect a sudden jump in velocity for a 35-year-old with Cueto’s injury history. The other piece that’s important to look at with Cueto is his pitch selection. If Cueto wants to recapture some of his old craftiness, he’s going to have to do it with his secondary pitches, and thus far he’s thrown either his changeup or slider 54.7% of the time, which is the highest combined percentage of his career. Cueto’s changeup can still generate some whiffs, as he has a 36.7% whiff rate with it this season and earned four whiffs in this start. His slider isn’t a big strikeout pitch and it’s movement isn’t anything to write home about, but batters can struggle to square it up at times, and Cueto has a .111 BA and .269 xBA with the pitch this season. Cueto should find better results by pitching primarily with his changeup and slider in favor of the fastball.

Ultimately, even his best pitches aren’t impressive anymore, and if anyone looks at Cueto’s 2.51 ERA through two starts and thinks he’s “back,” they would be sorely mistaken. If you can dangle his big name as a sell-high piece to a more casual player, do it without hesitation. However, most experienced players are too sharp for that. He does have something that many of the young pitchers like Trevor Rogers don’t have, and that’s depth. Cueto is one of the few pitchers on the waiver wire with no innings restrictions or pitch count limits, so even though he’s not especially good anymore, he will provide volume. It’s bland and it’s unsexy, but that volume does have value, especially in points leagues. Cueto is more of a streamer in standard leagues, but a home matchup against Colorado is the ideal streaming scenario.

Verdict:

No, the Johnny Cueto we once knew isn’t back. Assuming he’s healthy, Cueto should be a decent, if boring, streaming option during the 2021 season. His stuff leaves much to be desired, but Cueto is one of the best at making the most of his stuff and pitching above his talent level. If he shifts more towards the direction of pitching with his changeup and slider, he can still be a serviceable arm. His next start comes at home against Cincinnati, and while their offense has been good this season, Cueto is usable if you need him. The way things line up right now, Cueto should be a two-start pitcher in Week 4, pitching at Philadelphia and home against Miami, and Cueto is a lot more appealing in a high-volume week like that.

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