NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings (4/10): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

April 10, 2021

Jorge Pucks delivers his top DraftKings, FanDuel NHL DFS value plays and research for April 10th including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays, stacks.

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Saturday, April 10th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 4/10

• • Detroit Red Wings vs. Carolina Hurricanes (-340) - 5.5O
  • Chicago Blackhawks (-120) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets - 5.5U
  • Winnipeg Jets vs. Montreal Canadiens (-130) - 5.5O
  • Ottawa Senators (-110) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (-330) - 6.5U
  • Tampa Bay Lightning (-185) vs. Nashville Predators - 5.5U
  • Minnesota Wild (-110) vs. St. Louis Blues (-106) - 5.5U
  • Edmonton Oilers (-115) vs. Calgary Flames (-105) - 6O
  • Los Angeles Kings vs. San Jose Sharks (-128) - 5.5O

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium NHL DFS subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Jorge by using promo code JORGEPUCKS when purchasing an NHL DFS Premium Pass. You get 10% off, and exclusive access to all of our Premium NHL cheat sheets, DFS research tools, Premium Slack Chatrooms, Stack Builder, Correlation Matrix and Lineup Optimizer!

NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

• Connor McDavid, EDM ($9,200 DK / $9,000 FD) - The Flames continue to struggle to contain McDavid this year and with this matchup occurring yet again, it makes sense to go right back to the McDavid well. He has seven goals and eight assists in seven games against Calgary and has taken 24 total shots on goal in that seven-game span.
• Kirby Dach, CHI ($4,000 DK/ $3,700) - Dach has been placed on the top line and is skating with Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat which means there is massive upside for him with those two wingers. Dach is also on the top power-play unit which only adds to the potential upside. He has scored a point in three of his last five games with one of those points being an even-strength goal.

Other centers to consider: 

• High Priced- Matthews, Trocheck, Scheifele, Point, 
• Mid-Tier- Hertl, Couture, Lindholm, Schenn, Suzuki
• Value- Monahan, Dubois, Johansen, Haula, Texier

NHL DFS Forward Picks

• Patrick Kane, CHI ($7,800 DK / $7,700 FD) - Patrick Kane has some massive upside in this matchup against Columbus. On the season, he has scored four goals and registered nine assists while taking 19 shots on goal in six games against the Blue Jackets. Kane has been in a little bit of a scoring drought as he has only scored two goals over his last 10 games played but there is no better matchup for him to bust out of this slump than against Columbus.
• Connor Brown, OTT ($4,000 DK / $4,100 FD) - Brown has been on fire for Ottawa over his last 10 games. Over that 10-game stretch, he has registered a point in seven of those games and has scored a goal in six straight games. Brown has been successful in the matchup against Toronto as he has notched three goals and two assists in seven games this year while racking up 17 peripheral stats as well.

Other wings to consider: 

• High Priced- Draisaitl, Marner, Kane, Kane, DeBrincat, Connor, Toffoli, Tkachuk, Fiala
• Mid-Tier- Atkinson, Meier, Necas, Svechnikov, Bjorkstrand, Brown
• Value- Labanc, Niederreiter,  Batherson, Balcers, Schwartz, Stastny, Kotkaniemi, Parise

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

• Victor Hedman, TBL ($7,300 DK / $6,300 FD) - Hedman is one of the safer defensemen plays on the slate and is worth spending up for on either site. He is more of a steal on FD as he is 1k cheaper but makes for a viable play in all formats. Hedman has registered one goal and five assists in six games against Nashville while also racking up 25 peripheral stats in those six games.
• Neal Pionk, WPG ($4,000 DK / $4,400 FD) - The pricing on Pionk is down on both sites but with him leading all defensemen on the Jets in total points and being tied for third on the team in assists, he makes for a great value play. Pionk sees plenty of ice time and has a solid floor based on his peripheral stats and has registered four assists in seven games against Montreal this year.

Other defensemen to consider: 

• High Priced- Hamilton, Josi, Nurse, Barrie, Burns
• Mid-Tier- Petry, Giordano, Chabot, jones, Morrissey, Sergachev
• Value- Parayko, Ekholm, Karlsson, Hanifan, Ferrero, Stone, Brodie

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

• Petr Mrazek, CAR ($8,500 DK / $8,600 FD) - The Canes are the heaviest favorites on the slate and it seems as if Petr Mrazek will get the start on Saturday night. Since returning from his injury, Mrazek has won back-to-back starts which makes his overall record on the season 4-1 with a .99 goals allowed average. Mrazek has been very dominant when he has been in the net as he has recorded three shutouts in just five starts this season with one of those shutouts coming against Detroit in early January. Mrazek is the best goalie option on the slate should he get the start and would be the top option for your cash game lineups.
• Connor Hellebuyck, WPG ($7,200 DK / $7,500 FD) - The pricing on Hellebuyck is too soft on both sites to ignore in all formats. He is 19-10-3 on the season with a 2.53 goals allowed average and a .920 save percentage. He is coming into this matchup against Montreal in solid form as he has won two straight games and has won three of his last five starts. Hellebuyck has fared well against the Canadiens this season as he is 5-2 with a 2.86 goals allowed average and a .914 save percentage. While the matchup against Montreal is a tough one, there is potential save upside with rostering Hellebuyck and at his price point, he could be rostered in all formats.

Other goalies to consider: 

• High Priced- Campbell
• Mid-Tier- Smith, Talbot
• Value- Dubnyk, Saros

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them in case he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks 

• CAR 1 
  • Svechnikov/ Aho/ Fast (Hamilton, d-men add on)
    • The Hurricanes have moved Andrei Svechnikov back up to the top line so he can skate alongside Sebastian Aho at full strength and on the top power-play unit as well. This line has skated together for a little over 60 minutes and in that timeframe, he is sporting a 2.58 expected goals for while generating 30.67 scoring chances for and 18.21 high danger chances per 60 minutes of ice time.
• SJS 2  
  • Balcers/ Hertl/ Meier 
    • Time to go right back to the well on the Shark's second line. This line has been fantastic over the past couple of weeks and had a very solid performance against the Kings last night. This line registered a goal while creating 11 scoring chances and nine high danger chances in just 12 minutes of ice time. In 38 minutes of ice time, this line is generating 49.32 scoring chances for and 32.36 high danger chances for while having an expected goal for rate of 6.46 per 60 minutes.

Other Stacks to consider: TBL 1, EDM 1, CHI 1, WPG PP, CAR PP, CAR 2, 

Key Abbreviations:

xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time

GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time

SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time

If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!

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