NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, SuperDraft (3/27): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

March 27, 2021

Jorge Pucks delivers his top DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft NHL DFS value plays and research for March 27th including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays, stacks.

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft for Saturday, March 27th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/27

• • Tampa Bay Lightning (-115) vs. Carolina Hurricanes (-105) - 5.5U
  • Edmonton Oilers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (-155) - 6.5U
  • New York Islanders vs. Pittsburgh Penguins -
  • Nashville Predators (-105) vs. Chicago Blackhawks (-115) - 5.5O
  • Florida Panthers (-110) vs. Dallas Stars (-110) - 5.5U
  • San Jose Sharks (-105) vs. Arizona Coyotes (-120) - 5.5O
  • Winnipeg Jets vs. Calgary Flames (-125) - 6U

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium NHL DFS subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Jorge by using promo code JORGEPUCKS when purchasing an NHL DFS Premium Pass. You get 10% off, and exclusive access to all of our Premium NHL cheat sheets, DFS research tools, Premium Slack Chatrooms, Stack Builder, Correlation Matrix and Lineup Optimizer!

NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

• Connor McDavid, EDM ($9,000 DK / $9,200 FD) - The Oilers and Maple Leafs game should be exciting to watch and Connor McDavid has done well in this matchup so far this season. he has recorded three goals and four assists in seven games so far this season against Toronto while also recording 22 shots on goal.
• Tomas Hertl, SJS ($5,100 DK/ $ 6,300) - The hot streak continues for Hertl as he has scored a goal in back-to-back games while scoring a goal in three of his last four games played. Hertl has done well in his matchup against the Coyotes this year as he has recorded four goals and one assist in just three games against them this season.
• Jared McCann, PIT ($3,700 DK/ $ 3,800) - With Malkin being out, McCann has taken on the second-line centering duties while also getting time on the top power-play unit as well. McCann is coming off of a two-goal performance and makes for a viable value option at the center position on this slate.

Other centers to consider: Barkov, Crosby, Scheifele, RNH, Verhaeghe, Hintz, Gourde, Dvorak, Suter, Haula

NHL DFS Forward Picks

• Patrick Kane, CHI ($7,500 DK / $8,100 FD) - Kane continues to deliver for Chicago as he is coming off of back-to-back two-point performances and leads the team with 46 points on the season. While he hasn't fared well against Nashville this year, hopefully, his recent form can carry over to this matchup for this slate.
• Blake Wheeler, WPG ($5,800 DK / $5,900 FD) - Wheeler is about as solid as it can get from a winger option especially at his price point over on DK. Wheeler has scored a point in three straight games and has recorded a goal and five assists in six games played against Calgary this year.
• Paul Stastny, WPG ($4,400 DK / $5,400 FD) - If the pricing is a tad too high for Wheeler, you can always pivot on down to Paul Stastny who offers great value for this slate. Stastny has also scored a point in three straight games and had a two-point performance against the flames on Friday night so for his price point, he makes for a great all-around play.

Other wings to consider: Draisaitl, Marner, Guentzel, Kane, Forsberg, Ehlers, Stamkos, Connor, Pavelski, Kubalik, Meier, Benn, Necas, Labanc, Copp, Tolvanen, Robertson, Gurianov, Puljujarvi, Simmonds, Kessel, Hagle, Strome, Foegele 

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

• Roman Josi, NSH ($6,300 DK / $6,500 FD) - The best cash game option at the defenseman position for me is Roman Josi. Josi has generated double-digit DK points in four straight games and has registered a point in each of those four games as well.
• Neal Pionk, WPG ($4,800 DK / $4,900 FD) - Pionk has been very active lately racking up peripheral stats despite only recording one point in his last four games played. The point total has been low recently as he has recorded only one point in his last seven games but his peripheral stats are great which makes him viable in all formats.
• Ryan Pulock, NYI ($4,100 DK / $4,400 FD) - The pricing on Pulock has come down quite a bit on both sites and while he still has yet to record a goal on the season, he makes for a solid cash game candidate based on his large amount of ice time and the peripheral stats that he racks up on a game to game basis.

Other defensemen to consider: Hedman, Letang, Nurse, Burns, Barrie, Giordano, Ekholm, Klingberg, Morrissey, Muzzin, Karlsson, Keith, OEL, Hanifan, Boqvist, Lindell, Bouchard

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

• Kevin Lankinen, CHI ($8,100 DK / $7,100 FD) - Lankinen had a dominant performance in the lone game he faced Nashville this year. He stopped 41 of 42 shots that he faced in that matchup but somehow found himself on the losing side of things. Lankinen has been a steady netminder for Chicago this season as he is 12-7-4 with a 2.71 goals allowed average and a .920 save percentage.  Nashville is only scoring 2.4 goals per game but Lankinen tends to face a good amount of shots so this could be a smash spot for him.
• Laurent Brossoit, WPG ($7,000 DK / $8,400 FD) - The Jet came out as the victors on Friday night by a score of 3-2 with Hellebuyck stopping 25 of 27 total shots faced. They will be in the same matchup for Saturday night with Laurent Brossoit getting the start for the Jets. Brossoit has been a solid backup goalie option for Winnipeg as he is 5-2 on the season with a 2.43 goals allowed average and a .920 save percentage in seven starts this season. He has one start under his belt against the Flames and in that lone start, he stopped 29 of 31 total shots faced while recording a win.
• Anton Khudobin, DAL ($7,900 DK / $7,400 FD) - The Panthers could be without two of their bigger offensive weapons tonight as Aleksander Barkov and Patric Hornqvist could both be out due to injury. If they are out, Khudobin could end up being a very nice play as the Stars would end up being heavy favorites. Khudobin is 1-1 on the year against Florida as he has stopped 92 of 94 shots faced while also recording one shutout against them as well.

Other goalies to consider: Smith, Dubnyk

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them incase he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks 

• EDM 1
  • Draisaitl/ McDavid/ Puljujarvi (Barrie, d-men add on)
    • Draisaitl has been bumped up to the top line again for Edmonton and this line makes for one of the more potent lines in all of hockey. In 29 minutes of ice time together this line has a 5.89 expected goals for rate while producing 56.82 scoring chances for and 14.21 high danger chances for per 60 minutes of ice time. This should be a good-paced game and it wouldn't surprise me if this is one of the higher scoring games on the slate.
• CHI 1 
  • DeBrincat/ Suter/ Kane  
    • Chicago will have the home-ice advantage which means their top line could be put in a good spot tonight against Nashville. In 270 minutes of ice tie together, this line has scored 16 5v5 goals while also generating eight high danger goals on the season. Both Kane and DeBrincat are at the top point and goal-getters on the Blackhawks and mini-stacking them could be a way to be different on this seven-game slate.
• DAL 2 
  • Benn/ Dickinson/ Gurianov (Heiskanen, d-men add on) 
    • The second line for Dallas could be in a good spot tonight against the Panthers and this line is generating some good numbers together. in 35 minutes of ice time together this year, this trio is sporting a 3.13 expected goals for rate per 60 minutes while generating 38.82 scoring chances and 11,81 high danger chances for per 60 minutes of ice time.

Other Stacks to consider: PIT 1, WPG 1, CHI 2/ PP 1, SJS 2, WPG 2

SuperDraft NHL DFS Picks

C: Crosby (1.1X), Scheifele (1.4X), Hertl (1.7X)

W: Kane (1.15X), Wheeler (1.3X), Forsberg (1.6X), DeBrincat (1.7X)

D: Nurse (1.25X), Josi (1.35X), Barrie (1.75X),

G: Khudobin (1.5X), Brossoit (1.7X), Lankinen (2X)

*Core 4 for SuperDraft are Bolded

Key Abbreviations:

xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time

GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time

SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time

If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!

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