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Who Ya Got: Rendon or Longoria?

Going by ESPN's average draft position, Anthony Rendon and Evan Longoria were seen as roughly equivalent assets in 2015. Rendon went 38th overall on average in ESPN leagues, while Longoria's ADP was 40. Granted, their aggregate ADPs on the major platforms, per FantasyPros, saw a much wider gap (29 for Rendon and 57 for Longoria). Still, both were regarded as quality starters at third base in pretty much any fantasy format. Rendon had broken out in his first full season, hitting .287/.351/.473 with 21 homers, 17 steals, and 194 R+RBI. Longoria, meanwhile, was coming off the worst season of his career but had spent the previous six establishing himself as a top-tier option.

Unfortunately for those who bought in on either player, they failed to offer much in return on the investment. Longoria essentially turned in a repeat of his 2014, while Rendon missed half the season with various injuries that rendered him ineffective when he did play. Fantasy owners will likely approach both players with more trepidation this time around, but which one is a better bounceback candidate?

 

Rendon

Rendon's sophomore season was excellent from a pure production standpoint, but perhaps even more encouraging was the fact that he'd managed to avoid the trainer's room for a second consecutive season. Going back to his time at Rice University, Rendon had struggled to stay on the field thanks to injuries suffered to both ankles and his right shoulder. So when he suffered an MCL sprain in spring training, maybe it should have been more of a concern.

As it happened, his draft cost took a slight hit, but most reports had him back before the end of April. I ended up snagging him for $16 in the RotoBaller writers' league, and recall being reasonably happy about it. But the knee injury lingered and eventually led to a strained oblique, which robbed Rendon of both his pop and speed. His ISO was nearly cut in half, dropping from .186 to an even .100. He only attempted three steals and was caught twice. Ultimately, according to Zach Sanders' end of season rankings over at RotoGraphs, Rendon actually returned negative value. The FantasyPros Player Rater had him 60th among third basemen, while ESPN's tool ranked him 55th. You get the picture, and it's not a pretty one.

Even though he's just 25, Rendon's lengthy injury history is a legitimate concern moving forward. It's certainly possible that he could enjoy a full and healthy season in 2016. The glass half full approach would be to point out that 1) He did just that the previous two years and 2) the injuries he suffered last season weren't recurrences of prior issues. Rendon's undeniable talent and dual-position eligibility - he spent most of 2015 playing second base - make him an intriguing potential risk, especially in keeper or dynasty leagues.

 

Longoria

Longoria's season was less disappointing, in large part because he managed to play every day. ESPN and FantasyPros' Player Raters each ranked him 15th at third base, and Sanders had him at 11th. One could make the argument, however, that Longo would benefit for a few more days off. He's missed just four games in the last three seasons, and the last two years have been by a wide margin the worst of his career. To wit:

Season AVG OBP SLG HR ISO R+RBI BB%
2008-13 .275 .357 .512 28 .238 178 10.9%
2014 .253 .320 .404 22 .151 174 8.1%
2015 .270 .328 .435 21 .166 147 7.6%

 

The trends here are troubling, to say the least. Longoria did see improvement in many areas last year relative to 2014, but his production still wasn't anywhere close to the level he'd established in the first half-dozen years of his career. He did spend at least part of the year dealing with a wrist injury, and flashed more power at the end of the year than the beginning. That late power surge came at the expense of plate discipline, however, as his walk rate fell by nearly half. As a result, his first and second half OPS were identical .764 marks.

At 30 years old, and with young studs like Kris Bryant, Manny Machado, Nolan Arenado, and Miguel Sano making their presences felt at the hot corner, it's fair to wonder if Longoria's days as a fantasy star are over.

 

Who Ya Got?

Rendon's youth and eligibility at second base are big selling points, but neither does you much good if he can't stay on the field. At this point, how many of us are willing to bet that he can pull that off? It's also worth pointing out that Rendon's rookie year wasn't anything special and he didn't show tremendous pop in the minors, so it's entirely possible that 2014 represented his high-water mark. And if it did, well, Longoria has produced several seasons that compare favorably. 30 isn't that old, and if the Rays give him a few more breathers, it's not hard to see the veteran having a bit of renaissance.

 

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