With the unprecedented dominance on display from young players, it's easy to view the ones who struggle with more disappointment than might be merited. We talked about Jorge Soler and Marcell Ozuna yesterday, but they weren't the only highly-touted young outfielders who stumbled in 2015. Today we'll take a closer look at another pair: Yasiel Puig and Gregory Polanco.

 

Yasiel Puig

The Cuban defector burst onto the scene in 2013 at age 22, destroying big-league pitching to the tune of a .319/.391/.534 line with 19 homers and 11 stolen bases in just 432 plate appearances. Puig's obvious talent and outsized personality immediately made him both immensely fun to watch and a magnet for criticism from the more conservative and traditional elements within the game of baseball. His second year was slightly less impressive, but Puig's plate discipline actually improved. He was a popular early pick in 2015 fantasy drafts, as owners bet on continued development.

Unfortunately, Puig missed about half the season with various injuries, and underwhelmed when he was on the field. His rate stats suffered a big decline, as he posted a middling .758 OPS with 11 homers, three steals, and 68 R+RBI in his 79 games. Former player Andy Van Slyke, whose son Scott currently plays for the Dodgers, claimed in a recent radio interview that Clayton Kershaw wants Puig off the team. True or not, Puig's brash behavior has certainly rubbed some people the wrong way, and it's a lot harder to look the other way when he's not producing.

It would be surprising if Puig is traded, but a rebound in 2016 seems likely no matter whose uniform he's wearing. As disappointing as his season was, he still posted a 111 wRC+ and a .181 ISO. Given his previous performance, age, talent level, and the fact that he was rarely healthy in 2015, it's easy to see why Steamer projects a 22/10 season with an .848 OPS. That would actually be worse than either of his first two years, so the upside here is obvious.

 

Gregory Polanco

He wasn't a star, but Polanco acquitted himself well as a rookie in 2014, hitting seven homers and stealing 14 bases in 312 plate appearances while posting a walk rate just below 10 percent. A lousy .235 batting average suppressed his value, yet Polanco's pedigree suggested he could take a leap forward in 2015 and give the Pirates baseball's best outfield, alongside Starling Marte and Andrew McCutchen.

While Polanco did improve in most areas and contributed enough runs (83) and steals (27) to be fantasy relevant, he struggled at both the beginning and the end of the season and finished the year at .256/.320/.381. Like most young lefthanded hitters, he's had a tough time with southpaws thus far:

 

Handedness	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	wRC+	BB%	K%
vs. LHP	.183	.239	.264	.082	41	6.6%	24.6%
vs. RHP	.270	.339	.402	.131	108	9.5%	16.8%

 

Pretty ugly numbers, there. It's clear that Polanco needs to reduce his platoon split by a considerable amount if he's going to unlock his potential. The good news? He's making progress.

 

vs. LHP	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	wRC+	BB%	K%
2014	.171	.222	.244	.073	33	6.6%	22.0%
2015	.190	.250	.278	.087	46	6.6%	26.3%

 

Whiff rate aside, Polanco showed appreciable improvement across the board. Granted there wasn't really anywhere to go but up, but better is better. While I'm no scout, it certainly looks as though he's shortened up his swing against lefties, which has allowed him to get around on fastballs more easily. Both Polanco himself and manager Clint Hurdle have established this as a major goal for his game, and the numbers bear that out.

Steamer expects another incremental step forward for Polanco in 2016, forecasting a .729 OPS with 14 homers and 27 steals. Only 15 players produced a 10/20 season last year (Polanco fell one homer short of being the 16th), so that would put the kid in some pretty good company.

 

Who Ya Got?

In terms of pure production, this is an easy call for Puig. However, there a few items to bear in mind. For all his talent, Puig has yet to hit more than 19 homers, steal more than 11 bases, or drive in more than 69 runs in a season. He's not an efficient base stealer, converting just 25 of his 43 attempts to this point in his career. And his sticker price will be a good deal higher than Polanco's on draft day.

Owners who are looking for a potential bargain or focused more on a boost in steals might be better served targeting Polanco.

 

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