The First Overall Pick In 2025 Fantasy Baseball Drafts - Who Are The Candidates?

February 3, 2025

There are five players in the discussion to be the first overall pick in 2025 fantasy baseball drafts. Who is the candidate to take? Mike Carter breaks it down.

Let's set the stage: you have been gifted the first pick in your annual fantasy baseball draft. Whether through setting your KDS, having the worst record in your league last year, or however your league selects draft order. Congratulations! You have the first selection. It feels great. Picture yourself with that big smile across your lips, dreaming of the beginning of your championship season.

And then, if you're anything like me, the joy of having the first pick melts into something different: panic. You wake up at 2 a.m. and lie awake, thinking about what to do with this gift. Your entire team roster build starts here. What you choose to do here will have a domino effect on the rest of your draft.

According to 91 NFBC drafts that have taken place since January 1 of this year, the following players are the top five players by average draft position, or for short, ADP. As you might expect, Shohei Ohtani goes first in most leagues, with Bobby Witt Jr. close behind him and even being selected first in some leagues. Rounding out the top five are Aaron Judge, Elly De La Cruz, and Jose Ramirez. Let's take a look at the top five players by average ADP and familiarize you more with what you might be able to expect from these stellar players, and also look at some of the risks associated with them as well.

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Shohei Ohtani Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Ohtani had a season for the ages in 2024. While he did not pitch in any games as he recovered from some form of Tommy John surgery, Ohtani had an epic season at the plate with a .310 batting average, 54 home runs, 130 RBI, 134 runs, and a whopping 59 stolen bases.

He had a career-high in plate appearances with 731 over 159 games. His ISO was an incredible .336 as he posted the lowest strikeout rate of his career at 22.2 percent, pairing that with an excellent 11.1 percent walk percentage.

He helped the Dodgers beat the New York Yankees in the World Series despite suffering a left shoulder injury that needed surgical repair in the offseason. Ohtani is said to be on target to start the season on the active roster, even if he does not pitch in the opening series in Tokyo. If he's healthy, he is a no-brainer first pick. Or is he?

One must plan for the reduction in counting stats across the board for Ohtani, given that the current plan is for him to pitch once a week from a rotation spot. Looking at his ATC projections, we can shave 13 home runs and 26 stolen bases off his video-game totals from 2024.

What will we get on the pitching side? His career high in innings came in 2022 with 166 innings. It would not appear that he would approach that this season while returning from the UCL injury, surgery being done to repair his left shoulder issue, and the fact that the Dodgers will likely use a six-man rotation to keep Ohtani and fellow hurlers fresh for the playoffs.

Now ... if Ohtani can stay healthy at age 30 and continue to both hit and pitch at a high level, he's the no-brainer first pick overall. However, there is abundant risk in his profile here with a history of oblique injuries, coupled with two UCL procedures (one was TJS for sure in 2019, and the other could have been an internal brace procedure in 2023, but it was never confirmed, per injury guru Dave Funnell). I asked Dave to create a list of Ohtani's injuries for me for this piece. It is below.

The question you have to ask yourself is how much risk is tolerable for you with your first pick? Ohtani is a gamble but the payoff is a healthy version of him who gives you stats in both hitting and pitching that no other player in history provides.

ATC projections (hitting) for 2025: .285/41/100/112/33 in 649 plate appearances over 145 games.

ATC projections (pitching) for 2025: 20 starts, 9.0 wins, 115 innings, 134 strikeouts, a 3.50 ERA, and a 1.15 WHIP.

Bobby Witt Jr. Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Witt has gone first in some leagues, and his max pick in NFBC drafts since January 1 has been four as a stat-sheet filler. He smashed 32 home runs, 109 RBI, and scored 125 runs with 31 stolen bases to go along with an eye-popping .332 batting average. There was no slump; he continued to improve in 2024, and he should be fantasy gold again in 2025.

Witt shaved his strikeout rate again in 2024, from 21.4 percent in 2022 to 17.4 percent in 2023 to 15 percent in 2024. His walk rate inched up to 8 percent. His ISO went from .174 in 2022 to .218 in 2023 to .256 in 2024. His batting average jumped from .254 to .276 to .332. And here's the thing: he turns 25 in June, and there could be even more growth in his skill set. Last year in this article, I asked if he could hit .300, and he answered that.

What we like about Witt is he plays a premium position, shortstop, and has played 150, 158, and 161 games over the past three seasons. He always plays, and that's a quality you must have with a top-5 pick; they have to play that many games for you to be able to compile the most statistics. You can't often afford to be wrong on the first pick of your draft.

A strong argument can be made to select Witt as the No. 1 pick overall, especially if you have concerns about Ohtani's injury history or regression. Witt is the top shortstop in the game and gives you a broad base of skills to build your team around in 2025.

ATC projections: .297/30/96/106/33 over 669 plate appearances and 153 games.

Aaron Judge Fantasy Baseball Outlook

There are no players in the major leagues like Aaron Judge. A valid argument can be made that he is the best hitter in the game today. The feared Yankees slugger had a monster 2024, with a .322 batting average, 58 home runs, 144 RBI, 122 runs, and 10 stolen bases.

This marked three of the last four years in which Judge has played at least 148 games and had over 633 plate appearances.  Judge is the kind of volume stat compiler you want in a player being drafted this highly. Concerning health, there is no reason to think that Judge will not continue to perform as he moves into his age-33 season.

I do not see a valid argument for taking him with the first overall pick, but he is a great consolation prize if you are drafting in the top five picks but do not have the first pick.

The one thing to contemplate when selecting Judge this high is that power is at a premium these days, and his home runs also fill your bucket of runs and RBI. Pair that with a high batting average and you have a leg up on the competition in four offensive categories. You can pick up stolen bases later.

ATC projections: .282/45/111/104/8 over 641 plate appearances and 146 games.

Elly De La Cruz Fantasy Baseball Outlook

I have to admit something as I write this: Elly De La Cruz frightens me at this pick. While most pundits will point to his unbelievable skills, I wonder aloud how good of a hitter he is. Many of you may stop reading now, and I understand that.

His talent is tantalizing. He hits the ball harder than just about anyone in the game. His sprint speed is almost unparalleled. And he's only 23, and there could easily be another level to his already outstanding game.

But let me tell you why I am wary of taking him. With me putting this into the universe, he will probably hit 40 home runs and steal 100 bases. Look at Statcast below; there is a lot of bright red splashed on that page. So I get it if you want to take him here.

Here's the thing that worries me. With a strikeout rate well over 30 percent, the range of outcomes for De La Cruz's batting average is wide. I could easily see him hit .210 or .280. If you take him this highly, you are banking on the runs and the stolen bases. I am also not sure he is a 25-homer guy, either.

Speed is easier to get later in drafts, and if he's not going to hit a surplus of home runs, you might end up with a guy who hits .220 with 15 home runs and a bevy of stolen bases. The stolen bases alone could win you the category in many leagues. While that is a good floor, one could argue that if he does this as a top-5 pick, your season will likely sink.

I would take De La Cruz if I felt confident of drafting a high-average hitter like Luis Arraez to offset a potential batting-average albatross, but I do not want to build my team that way. As such, I will probably pick what I feel is a more "sure thing," even though there are no sure things, like the next guy on this list.

Check out this Statcast chart below. De La Cruz struggles with breaking pitches, as evidenced by this chart. Should pitchers start throwing him more breaking balls, he could struggle despite hitting the ball harder than just about anyone in MLB.

ATC projections: .254/25/78/96/55 over 650 plate appearances and 150 games.

Jose Ramirez Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Ramirez is the top third baseman on the board and you would like to think you know exactly what you are going to get from him. The Guardians superstar is one of the most consistent performers in the game. Third base is not a very deep position this season, so a good argument could be made for taking Ramirez as one of the top picks in any snake draft.

Of particular interest, look at his counting stats since the 2021 season. You would like to think you know what you are getting: over 100 runs, around 100 RBI, 25 home runs, 20+ stolen bases, and a batting average of around .280 at third base, which drops off quickly after the top four or five players at the position. I am more liable to roster Ramirez than De La Cruz, simply because I like the consistency better than the risk.

ATC projections: .278/30/100/94/31 over 662 plate appearances and 152 games.

Happy drafting! It's the best time of the season. Remember to have fun above everything else! This is supposed to be FUN!

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