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We are just days away from the regular season, so the crack staff at RotoBaller has updated their rankings one last time. We continue our review of the March update with a look at the starting pitcher ranks.
Aces are drawing early attention, while numerous values still remain toward the end of fantasy drafts. Whether you choose to strike early or wait to build depth, there are plenty of names to go through among starters.
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2018 Fantasy Baseball Tiered Rankings: Starting Pitcher (March)
UPDATE: Madison Bumgarner and Jeff Samardzija rankings were updated on 3/24 based on injury estimates.
Tier 1
You already know about Clayton Kershaw's greatness and the dominance he brings when healthy. You may also be vaguely aware that Max Scherzer has won the NL Cy Young award in consecutive years, while Corey Kluber and Chris Sale finished 1-2 respectively in AL voting last season. If you don't want to pay up for one of these studs in the form of a first-round draft pick, you may miss out on all four. NFBC ADP data has them all being selected within the first 13 picks.
There is a premium on aces these days, as starters are pulled earlier, bullpens get stretched longer, and six-man rotations are becoming a trend. While there isn't necessarily a massive statistical drop-off from these elite names to the next tier of SP, there is a level of security and risk aversion that is making fantasy owners flock to the top crop of arms, so plan accordingly.
Tier 2
This group contains top-level starters that are talented enough to join the top tier, but each have minor warts in the form of injury concerns or lack of track record. First and foremost, Mets Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom come to mind. While Thor has officially won the battle for hair supremacy, they are each dominant at times and can offer a strikeout rate over 10 K/9. Syndergaard missed most of last season, yet should be ready for Opening Day, while deGrom is battling a stiff back and may not be.
Zack Greinke has already been ruled out from his Opening Day start and has alarmed some fantasy owners with his drop in velocity this spring. We heard similar concerns last preseason and things turned out just fine after he went 17-7 with a 3.20 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 215 K. If his price drops significantly on draft day, he's still worth the risk.
Yu Darvish would seem to have all the ingredients for a run at ol' Cy's award after he found his way to Chicago. He's on a contending team in a pitcher-friendly environment. As long as he's not tipping pitches, he should post strong ratios again and turn out to be the best value among this group. Justin Verlander, taken around the same range as Darvish, carries a much higher risk for decline due to age and possible lack of motivation after finally securing a World Series ring.
Tier 3
Robbie Ray barely slips into the third tier, but could be considered as high as some of his counterparts near the end of tier two. He's always mentioned as a regression candidate, but the humidor can only help his cause. His walk rate isn't ideal, but a 1.15 WHIP is not going to hurt you whatsoever in roto leagues. His 3.49 xFIP was good for 14th among qualified starters last season. Don't fear the reaper.
Aaron Nola and James Paxton will each have to do something important if they are to deliver on their current 5th/6th round ADP--stay healthy. Nola managed 27 starts, but was uneven for stretches and hit the DL for a month mid-season. Paxton landed on the DL three times since being called up in 2016, so he becomes a high risk-reward pick.
New teammates Gerrit Cole and Dallas Keuchel are both going in the 70s on average, which may be a bit optimistic for one and pessimistic for the other. Unless you're in a league that counts strikeouts more heavily, such as a 4x4 Ottoneu, Keuchel can provide superior ratios and win 15 or more games. Cole was dominant in 2015, but his ERA has risen each year since, despite playing in a favorable park that finished 20th in runs and 23rd in home runs for ballpark factor in 2017. It remains to be seen whether moving to the AL West will help or hurt Cole, but a new team might not be a boon to his fantasy numbers.
Tier 4
If you're looking for a Dodgers lefty with injury concerns, you're at the right place. Rich Hill was sharp throughout the season when he wasn't having blister issues. With all the time he's missed, it's easy to forget that he's 38 years old! Alex Wood has never reached the 200-inning mark, but he's also never posted an ERA above 4.00. If you roll with either, just make sure you have sufficient depth if when they hit the DL.
Young, upcoming pitchers like Jose Berrios and Luis Castillo could be flashes in the pan, but it's not likely. Each came into the league as a vaunted prospect and didn't take long to produce. Berrios has the slightly longer track record and more favorable environment, but Castillo's ceiling is higher in the K department. At this point, it might behoove you to seek a potential league-winner rather who could outperform expectations rather than a regression candidate, so don't be afraid to make either of these youngsters your SP3.
Tier 5
As the lowest of our expert rankers on Sonny Gray, I likely won't have any shares this year, but that doesn't mean he can't be a good value. He proved that the move to Yankee Stadium wouldn't hurt too much and the potential for wins jumps exponentially. If he keeps his ground ball rate near 53% as he's done the last three seasons, he can provide solid ratios with a good-enough K rate.
Talk about deviation--one of our rankers has Michael Fulmer as a top-100 overall player (88) while another barely has him inside the top 200 (192). I'm squarely in the middle, as I believe he is a quality pitcher and appears to be ready to go for 2018, but the lack of Ks and Wins can't put him any higher than tier five.
Jon Gray keeps getting overlooked and it's all about the Coors effect. Never mind that his ERA was almost a full run LOWER at home last season. I've been preaching about him for two years now and won't stop picking him up every chance I can.
On the flip side, I'm not buying a comeback from Johnny Cueto until I see it. He's had some big swings in value from season-to-season, but he's not young enough that I can confidently say I trust him. He's developing a HR problem and saw his hard hit rate jump to 35% last year. Lean towards youth instead.
Tier 6
Garrett Richard has gotten a lot of people excited in fantasy baseball circles. Our own Rick Lucks went so far as to predict an AL Cy Young award this year in his Bold Predictions article. His numbers from the last two years can be mostly ignored, unless you're a fan of reading into small sample sizes in injury-riddled seasons. Sure, he posted a tidy 2.28 ERA in his six starts, but that came with a .233 BABIP and 4.8% HR/FB that are both unsustainable. If the price is right, I'll buy, but I find it hard to reach for a guy that is a longshot to reach 200 innings even without a recurrence of injury.
Gio Gonzalez gets no love, despite playing for one of the best teams in the National League and posting a sub-3.00 ERA with 15 wins. A high strand rate and slight dip in velocity are both checks against him though. I don't advise taking him over players like Jameson Taillon or Trevor Bauer, but he's a relatively safe pick in the middle portion of drafts.
Tier 7
I'll just come out and admit that I love Dinelson Lamet in this range. As a rookie, he induced an 11.8% SwStr% and struck out 28.7% of batters faced. Walks will always be a concern, but he toned those down considerably in his last few starts and as a fly ball pitcher, he has a forgiving ballpark.
The light may have come on for Chase Anderson, as he flat-out dominated in the second half last season. At an ADP of 169, it's definitely worth finding out if he's for real.
If you're looking for starters to slot in at RP because you've decided to punt saves, Michael Clevinger and Alex Reyes are good bets. Clevinger's 10.13 K/9 placed him 17th among all pitchers with 100 innings or more last year. He's got a rotation spot locked down, so he should provide nice volume for fantasy owners. Reyes may start the year in the bullpen, but could be moved to the rotation in the second half if he proves all the way back from Tommy John surgery.
Tiers 8 and lower
At this stage, you should be chasing upside or trying to help out in a specific category. Ratio help could come in the form of Lucas Giolito, Marco Estrada, or Miles Mikolas. Young flamethrowers who can help in the strikeout department (at risk of those ratios) include Vincent Velasquez, Tyler Glasnow, and Sean Newcomb. If you have extra DL spots and want to stash someone for the second half, consider taking Jimmy Nelson, Ervin Santana, or Julio Urias at a discount. Finally, if you just want a safe, reliable innings-eater that can maintain the status quo and buffer some of your risky starters taken earlier on, there's always JA Happ, Tyler Chatwood, Alex Cobb, and CC Sabathia.
