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Which players should you be buying and selling from the 2023 draft class? Joey Pollizze looks at which players you should be buying and selling from the 2023 draft class.
As dynasty managers turn their attention to the 2024 NFL Draft, now is the perfect time to look back at the 2023 rookie class. Bijan Robinson was the clear top prospect and the 1.01 in both non-Superflex and one-quarterback leagues. Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the top wide receiver in the class, while Anthony Richardson battled Bryce Young for the top quarterback spot.
We also saw many rookies make a name for themselves in year one. C.J. Stroud broke out in his first season, Jahmyr Gibbs put up over 1,200 yards from scrimmage with 11 total touchdowns, and Sam LaPorta caught 86 passes for 889 yards and 10 touchdowns.
However, the biggest surprise from the 2023 draft class was Puka Nacua. Nacua was going in the third round of rookie drafts, and he is now a top-seven dynasty wide receiver. With the 2023 season officially complete, let's look at which players to buy and sell from last year's class in dynasty fantasy football.
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Dynasty Buys
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks
If you drafted Smith-Njigba early in the first round of rookie drafts, chances are you weren't going to get immediate production from the rookie. For starters, he was stuck behind DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett on the depth chart. That likely meant his playing time and targets were going to be limited, which was exactly the case in year one.
Smith-Njigba played over 75% of the Seahawks' offensive snaps just once in 2023. That happened to be in Week 9 against the Baltimore Ravens when he played 82% of the snaps and caught six passes for 63 yards. In the other 16 games, though, he averaged just a 63.8% snap share and 3.6 catches per game.
The rookie finished his first year with only 63 catches for 628 yards and four touchdowns. However, you need to buy the WR1 from the 2023 draft class.
I can't believe Jaxon Smith-Njigba is currently listed at WR 22 in FantasyPros Dynasty Consensus Rankings
BUY BUY BUY!!!!!!!!!!!
— Luke Sawhook 🪚🪝 (@lukesawhook) February 17, 2024
There's a reason why Smith-Njigba was the top wideout selected in last year's draft, and if it wasn't for an injury-riddled 2022 college season, he would have gone much higher. Don't forget, he put up 95 catches for 1,606 yards and nine touchdowns at Ohio State in 2021, which was more than both his teammates Garrett Wilson (1,058) and Chris Olave (936).
It might have been a disappointing first year for Smith-Njigba, but dynasty managers should bet on the talent of the 22-year-old playmaker. There's also a chance Lockett gets cut this offseason to clear up some cap space. If that happens, the young wideout will have a breakout 2024 season.
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Buying quarterback Anthony Richardson this offseason might be more difficult, but he is someone you should be looking to acquire. Some dynasty managers might be worried about Richardson's career-long health issues after playing just two full games during his rookie season.
The former Florida product suffered a concussion in Week 2 and then injured his shoulder in Week 5. In both contests, he played less than 25 snaps. The shoulder injury, though, appeared to be a more serious issue as Richardson needed surgery to repair his AC joint. That caused him to miss the final 12 games of the season.
However, if there's a chance to buy the 21-year-old quarterback in dynasty, you should take advantage of that. Richardson not only has the size (6-foot-4, 244 pounds) and athleticism to be a reliable fantasy asset for years to come, but in those two full games he played last season, he showed his potential.
In Week 1 against the Jacksonville Jaguars, he finished with 263 total yards (40 rushing) and two total touchdowns. Then, in Week 4 against the Los Angeles Rams, he had 256 total yards (56 rushing) and three total touchdowns. Those contests featured plenty of rushing from the rookie, which helped him finish as a top-four quarterback in both weeks. As long as he can stay healthy over his career, he will be a top-six fantasy quarterback option for many seasons.
Kendre Miller, New Orleans Saints
The last dynasty buy from the 2023 draft class is New Orleans Saints running back Kendre Miller. Miller is an underrated name heading into the 2024 season, but he is someone with plenty of upside.
He was the fourth running back selected in the 2023 NFL Draft -- only behind Robinson, Gibbs, and Zach Charbonnet. Miller was drafted 71st overall in last year's draft ahead of running backs like Tyjae Spears (81st), De'Von Achane (84th), and Roschon Johnson (115th). Despite a rough rookie season, acquiring the young back in dynasty right now could be a great move.
NFC cut candidates: Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones among potential cap casualties of free agency frenzy (via @MattOkada)https://t.co/xr3khLB2me pic.twitter.com/qmFLbpHPyx
— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) February 19, 2024
Miller didn't see many chances in his first year because he had to battle for touches with Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams. So, a year-one breakout likely wasn't going to happen for the former TCU back. On top of that, he dealt with a hamstring injury and an ankle issue that caused him to miss nine games.
However, we finally saw Miller in an expanded role to end the season in Week 18. In that contest, he ran 13 times for 73 yards and one touchdown. Dynasty managers could also see more contributions from the 21-year-old in 2024 if Kamara is cut this offseason. If not, we might have to wait one more year before a breakout occurs. Still, the talent is there, and both Kamara and Williams are in the latter parts of their careers.
Dynasty Sells
Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers
It was easy to like Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston heading into 2023 rookie drafts. He put up over 1,000 yards on 60 catches and six touchdowns in his final college season at TCU. Johnston also went to the best possible landing spot -- being tied to quarterback Justin Herbert for the foreseeable future.
However, Johnston's rookie season will be one to surely forget. He caught just 38 passes for 431 yards and two touchdowns. The 22-year-old wideout also dealt with plenty of drops throughout the season and struggled to adjust to the NFL.
Unlike other rookies on this list, opportunities were there for Johnston right away. Mike Williams tore his ACL in Week 3, Joshua Palmer only played in 10 games, and Keenan Allen missed the final four games of the season with a heel injury. The playing time wasn't a problem for him in year one. It was his inability to catch the ball and gain separation on the outside.
Quentin Johnston had two main issues last year:
1) Hands
2) StrengthSimply put, QJ couldn’t get leverage like he did in college because unlike college, he could not physically dominating DBs.
The Chargers just hired Coach Herbert, Michigan’s strength and conditioning coach.
— DynastyXFactor (@DynastyXFactor) February 20, 2024
Even with Williams likely getting cut this offseason, Johnston is a player you should be looking to sell in 2024. Very few first-round wide receivers, who didn't hit the 525-yard threshold, have turned their careers around. Wideouts like Jalen Reagor (396 yards), Rashod Bateman (515 yards), Kadarius Toney (420 yards), and N'Keal Harry (105 yards) all struggled in year one. The Chargers' wideout might be following those career paths.
Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals running back Chase Brown has been a hot name this offseason following his increased usage toward the end of the year. He totaled at least 50 scrimmage yards in four of the final six games. Running back Joe Mixon is also rumored to get released this offseason, which would open up a myriad of opportunities for Brown in Cincinnati's backfield.
So, it makes sense why dynasty managers want to acquire the 23-year-old back. Nevertheless, he's a player you should be looking to sell instead of buy ahead of free agency.
For starters, Brown was drafted in the fifth round of the 2023 NFL Draft. We've seen this story plenty of times before with day three running backs. They are easily replaceable, and teams don't value them a ton. Just look at Dameon Pierce. Pierce was a day-three pick during the 2022 NFL Draft. He had a solid rookie season, but then the Texans decided to bring in veteran Devin Singletary -- who winded up taking the starting job.
The Bengals are expected to move on from RB Joe Mixon in the offseason. pic.twitter.com/iZGVVHfjHl
— NFL Rumors (@nflrums) February 15, 2024
Brown did show some nice things toward the end of the year. However, it would be a complete surprise if the Bengals cut Mixon and don't draft his replacement or sign a couple of veteran backs in free agency. Day-three running backs are hard to trust in dynasty, so acquiring a 2024 rookie draft pick would be the better long-term choice.
Zach Charbonnet, Seattle Seahawks
The final dynasty sell from the 2023 draft class is Seattle Seahawks running back Zach Charbonnet. Charbonnet was the clear RB3 in last year's class. If he landed with the Saints, Dolphins, or even the Bengals, we would possibly be talking about him as a dynasty buy. However, he arguably landed in one of the worst spots in Seattle.
The Seahawks already had a young alpha in the backfield in Kenneth Walker III. Walker was just drafted in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft just one year earlier. As a result, the Seahawks drafting Charbonnet with the 52nd overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft made very little sense.
Charbonnet's first year went how we all expected. Walker would lead the backfield, and the rookie would come in on third downs. He was one of the most valuable handcuffs in 2023, which did come in handy when the second-year back got hurt in Week 11. From Week 11 to Week 13, Charbonnet played 78% of the Seahawks' offensive snaps while totaling 59 touches for 226 yards and one touchdown. However, when Walker returned, the rookie went back to seeing low usage.
There's not going to be a path where Charbonnet overtakes the starting job from Walker in Seattle. The latter is more talented and has shown his big-play potential in his first two years. The former UCLA product is also just three months younger than Walker, so it appears he will be stuck behind him on the depth chart for years. Now is the perfect time to sell the second-round running back before the 2024 season begins.
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