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Updated 2021 fantasy baseball outfielder rankings for 5x5 roto mixed leagues. Our OF MLB rankings are from #1 accuracy expert Nick Mariano, Ariel Cohen, Pierre Camus, and JB Branson.
The outfielder position is deep enough that it warrants another look. Read about the first few tiers right here before diving into part two ahead. When you're done, read our rankings breakdowns at Catcher, First Base, Second Base, Third Base and Shortstop.
RotoBaller's rankers, JB Branson, Pierre Camus, Nick Mariano, and Ariel Cohen have been updating 2021 Mixed League rankings throughout the spring and now it's time to take one final look at last-minute draft targets or waiver wire pickups once the season begins.
You can also find our other draft rankings for all sorts of league formats, continually updated throughout the preseason, right here in our main fantasy baseball Rankings Wizard tool. Also, make use of all our premium resources with our MLB Draft Kit.
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2021 Fantasy Baseball Outfielder Rankings
In case you missed it, our very own "Big Pick Nick" Mariano was named the #1 overall most accurate industry expert ranker for the 2018 season, and Ariel Cohen was the top ranker in 2019. In addition, ATC Projections by Ariel Cohen were the #1 most accurate projections system in 2019. Be sure to follow their updated rankings and projections all season long!
Tier 7
Dylan Carlson failed to live up to the high expectations that come with being the number 14 prospect in baseball, posting an anemic .252 on-base percentage and a 66 OPS+. Still, it's hard to judge anyone's performance in a pandemic season with just 14 prior games above Double-A, and at just 22, Carlson will have many chances to prove himself. Teammate Tommy Edman struggled similarly last year, but at 26 and lacking any standout tools, he doesn't have nearly the fantasy upside as Carlson.
Andrew McCutchen isn't the player he once was, but he will provide league-average offense, hit for a bit of power, and get on base at a high clip in front of Bryce Harper. At this stage of the draft, that is a solid floor.
A.J. Pollock was phenomenal last year, hitting an outstanding 16 home runs and a solid 134 OPS+. However, his rate stats weren't all that different from his mediocre 2019, and 2020 was his first full season since 2015. There is a lot of bust potential here.
We spend so much time marveling over Trey Mancini's comeback that we forget what a great player he is. On one of the worst teams in major league history, Mancini still managed to hit .297/35 HR/98 RBI. It's unfair to expect that out of him this year, but this is a great hitter.
For years, Jesse Winker has teased his potential and finally reached it in 2020, posting an elite 142 OPS+ and placing in the top 10 percent in exit velocity, barrel percentage, and xWOBA. What hurts Winker is hitting in an offense that was 30th in the league in average, limiting his ability to both score and drive in runs.
Someone who won't have trouble driving in runs is Clint Frazier. He'll never be as good as Yankees fans say he is, but anyone who can hit for power and get on base at a .390 clip is an asset.
After six rollercoaster seasons, the Cubs finally gave up on Kyle Schwarber, accepting the fact that he will never fulfill his potential as the fourth overall pick. Is it time for fantasy owners to give up on him too? In this era of baseball, it's not enough to just have thirty home run potential, and Schwarber's .308 on-base percentage is simply too low to warrant drafting him this early.
Similar to Schwarber, Kole Calhoun doesn't have much to offer other than some cheap power. He is likely the worst option too because while Schwarber is in the top 5 percent in exit velocity, Calhoun is simply middle of the pack.
Though he doesn’t get on base much, Randal Grichuk is still an intriguing option because of the talent surrounding him in the Blue Jays lineup and his consistent power (20+ home runs from 2016- 2019). The worry, however, is whether he will lose at-bats to someone like Rowdy Tellez.
Tier Eight
There's not a lot of intriguing options at this stage of the draft, but one that stands out is Ian Happ. Anyone who can get on-base at a .360 clip in front of Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and Javier Baez is worthy of a mid-round selection.
Similarly, Brandon Nimmo also has tremendous value because of his on-base percentage. He's a sleeper pick to lead the league in runs with his elite eye and stacked supporting cast.
One of the most underrated players in baseball, Mark Canha has quietly put up a 140 OPS+ over the past two years. There's nothing flashy about his game, but he provides well-rounded fantasy value.
Mitch Haniger will provide similar value, as he had a 129 OPS+ from 2017-2019, but is the much riskier pick given he's played just 63 games since 2018.
Another risky player is Lorenzo Cain. The last time we saw Cain in a full season, he was a productive fantasy player, scoring 75 runs with 11 home runs and 16 stolen bases. Still, that was two years ago, and he is now entering his age-36 season. If he can't steal bases, there's just not enough power or pure hitting ability here to warrant even a late-round selection.
Austin Hays didn’t quite live up to the hype from his incredible September 2019, but he still posted league-average offense and flashed both power and speed. Hays has followed that up with an incredible spring training, batting .392 with four home runs. He’ll get every opportunity to prove himself on a weak Orioles team, and few players at this stage of the draft can match his raw tools.
Garrett Hampson has been as bad a hitter you will find outside the catcher position, as he’s in the bottom 2% in hard-hit percentage. Still, the memory of his 15-steal 2019 season keeps him on draft boards and he has a shot at regular playing time finally, so he could finally deliver on his potential.
David Peralta, meanwhile, is about as average a hitter you will ever find: In three of the last four years, he’s had an OPS+ between 100 and 106. There’s nothing flashy about his game, but he’ll hit in the high 200s and provide a bit of pop.
Jurickson Profar is coming off a career-high 113 OPS+ season but in a stacked Padres lineup, he simply isn't going to get enough at-bats to be fantasy-relevant. Even in a breakout season, he was in the bottom 25% of the MLB in both exit velocity and hard-hit percentage.
Another player I don't like is Andrew Benintendi. He just doesn't do anything well anymore. He doesn't have enough power or speed to be a standout performer and he's hit just .255 over the last two years. The underlying statistics aren't any prettier: He's been in the bottom 50% of exit velocity and hard-hit percentage every year of his career.
Tier 9
There are a few interesting players here in Tier 9, though none are more intriguing than Jarred Kelenic. He will be up at some point in April, and when he is, there is easy All-Star potential here. You don't get that kind of upside in Tier 9.
Similar to Kelenic, Alex Kirilloff is a player who has proven that he can hit at every level of the minors and will be in the majors sooner rather than later. Unlike Kelenic, Kirrilloff doesn't have a clear path to playing time, making him a slightly worse option.
In a Reds offense that was one of the worst in baseball last year, Nick Senzel may have been one of the most disappointing hitters. Battling through yet another injury-plagued season, Senzel hit just .186 with a 56 OPS+. Senzel is now entering 26 without a full season under his belt, but his 2019 (12 HR, 14 SB) was just too good to give up on him completely.
Aaron Hicks is one of the perplexing players in this tier. His strengths are obvious: A high on-base percentage in an elite offense, 25-HR potential, and a clear everyday role. The problem is, however, that Hicks is now entering his age-31 season with only two career seasons of more than 100 games played and none of more than 140. He also has batted just .231 and slugged just .431 over the last two years, a sign that all the injuries may have taken his tools. There's a lot to like about Hicks' game, but he just isn't worth the injury risk.
After five straight years of below-average offensive production, Manuel Margot suddenly became David Ortiz in the playoffs, hitting five home runs and slugging .550 during the Rays' World Series run. Don’t less this run fool you though. Margot’s fantasy outlook hasn’t changed. He’s still a mediocre hitter whose only real asset is plus stealing ability.
Two years ago, Bryan Reynolds was seventh in the NL in batting average. Last year, he hit just .189 with a 72 OPS+. So what changed? His exit velocity and hard-hit percentage barely changed, so the real difference was his BABIP declining from .381 to .231. He's not as bad as he was last year, but it would be foolish to expect him to hit .314 again.
After a breakout 2019 season, Scott Kingery was one of the worst offensive players in baseball last year, posting a downright disgusting .159/.228/.283 slash line. His subpar batted ball profile and high strikeout rate indicate that he's just not a very good hitter, and he doesn't get on base enough to create value out of his elite speed. His surprise demotion to Triple-A late in spring training makes him undraftable and drop-worthy.
Tier 10
If you're looking for cheap power, Tier 10 is the place for you. It's rare to find a hitter in the top 5% in exit velocity this late in the draft, but Joc Pederson has fallen on draft boards due to a subpar 2020. In his previous two seasons, however, he posted a 126 OPS+ and averaged 30 home runs, and his rate stats from last year indicate more fluke than permanent drop-off.
Another cheap power source here in Tier 10 is Hunter Renfroe. There's not a lot Renfroe does well. He doesn't steal bases, he's a career .220 hitter, and he doesn't draw walks. What he can do is hit bombs, and the thought of him hitting in front of the Green Monster is intriguing enough to warrant a late-round selection.
It's hard to find a player more consistent than Corey Dickerson. Save for a disappointing 2016 season, Dickerson posted a WRC+ between 114 and 127 every season between 2015 and 2019. Dickerson's down 2020 should definitely concern fantasy owners, as his average exit velocity dipped by nearly 2 MPH, but he is a solid bet to provide at least league-average offense.
Justin Upton used to be the most consistent hitter in baseball, posting an OPS+ between 106 and 141 every year from 2011 to 2018 and only hitting fewer than 25 home runs once during that span. Over the last two years, however, he has hit just 20 combined home runs and had an OPS+ of just 91. Still somehow just 33, it's hard to close the book on him just yet, but this is not the Justin Upton of five years ago.
Part of Upton's declining value is the emergence of Jo Adell to take one of the two remaining outfield spots beside Mike Trout. Adell, the number 2 prospect in baseball entering last season, struggled mightily in his first taste of the show, hitting just .161 to go along with a hideous 41.7% strikeout rate. Even with his struggles, though, Adell still finished in the top 25% of all hitters in exit velocity. With more time in the majors, Adell will learn to cut down on his strikeouts, and his natural hitting talent will take over.
Ever the unpredictable hitter, Jackie Bradley Jr. turned the best offensive season of his career into a two-year, $24 million contract with the Brewers. That breakout may turn out to be just a mirage, however, as his exit velocity actually decreased by two miles per hour from the previous season, when he hit just .228. There is still value in Bradley's game: He's always had a good eye, he stays healthy, and he's got 20-HR power. Just don't expect him to hit .283 again.
Bradley’s replacement, Franchy Cordero, has all the tools to be a fantasy breakout in Boston. He has elite velocity numbers and above-average sprint speed. The question is whether Cordero, now 26, can ever translate those tools into actual production.
Tier 11
At this stage of the draft, you're really looking for guys who are going to get everyday at-bats. Someone who has likely won a starting spot with a strong spring is Kike Hernandez. Hernandez is projected to lead off in a strong Red Sox order, though it remains to be seen how long a career .313 OBP hitter can stay in the leadoff stop. Even so, Hernandez provides a bit of pop with 38 HR from 2018-2019, and he can play nearly every position.
You wouldn't expect the starting center fielder on an NL title favorite to be this low on the rankings, but that just speaks to the uncertainty surrounding Christian Pache. Though he's only played 26 games above Double-A (before being thrown into the action in the NLCS), there is easy 20-20 potential here. It might take him a while to get settled, as he's struggled with plate discipline in the minors, but his raw tools are good enough to warrant a draft selection.
Only five players in the majors last year hit more home runs than Pache's former teammate, Adam Duvall. In fact, Duvall has hit 26 home runs over his last 98 games, a 43 home run pace stretched over a full season. Though he is in the bottom fourth of the league in exit velocity, something Duvall has always been good at is squaring up the baseball: He's ranked in the top 30 percent in barrel percentage every season of his career. This bodes well for his future power potential, although he won't provide enough in the on-base or speed department to be anything more than a fantasy bench bat.
Shogo Akiyama was thrown right into the flames in his rookie season, starting 54 out of 60 games for a playoff team. Akiyama was one of the weakest hitters in baseball last year, slugging a pathetic .297 and ranking in the bottom five percent in both exit velocity and hard-hit percentage. Still, there was a lot to like about Akiyama's performance from a fantasy perspective. He got on base at a .345 clip, showed a strong eye, and stole seven bases. With question marks surrounding Nick Senzel's health, Akiyama should get plenty of at-bats, and he can rank near the top of the leaderboards in steals.
Tier 12-13
There's not a lot to like here in the last two tiers, but two players with enormous offensive potentials looking to rebound from subpar 2020 seasons are Michael Chavis and Miguel Andujar. Chavis was fantastic in his first month in the big leagues but has fallen off since then, culminating in a .259 OBP last year. Chavis came into this spring fighting for a roster spot, and he has exceeded expectations and then some, hitting five home runs to go along with an outstanding 1.107 OPS. Even if he doesn't win a starting job in a strong Red Sox lineup, Chavis's versatility will get him at-bats, and his light-tower power will give him fantasy value.
Three years ago, Miguel Andujar was considered one of the best young hitters in baseball, collecting 76 extra bases and posting a 130 OPS+. Since then, however, Andujar has battled through injuries, decreased playing time, and a position change and has collected just four XBH. The memory of his 2018 hasn't completely faded, but this is clearly a make or break season for him.
The rest of Tier 12 and Tier 13 are filled with Quad-A players who likely won't see much time in the majors. The only remaining notable players are prospects such as Julio Rodriguez, Taylor Trammell, and Jarren Duran, but they aren't all assured of getting called up before the All-Star break.
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